KP Talks Dollars and Sense

🌍 Big week, big stories! 187,000 jobs were created and it softened interest rates. 💼 Sounds cool, right? Not all cool. The estimate was 200,000, but 13,000 shy. Is the recession whisper getting closer? 🤫 JP Morgan says: "No recession drama in 2023!" Japan's got a yield curve trick going on—playing with the yen and curbing their yield game. The 10-year Treasury yield took a leap!...

Durable goods soaring, and consumer power is on the rise! 🚀🛍️ Inflation is cooling down, giving a boost to those hard-earned wages! 💰💪 Job quitters, this one's for you - real power in your hands now! 💥💼 Time to splurge on those long-wished-for items! June's personal income also saw a boost of 0.3% from May - just a touch below the expected 0.4%. 💼💵 And how about consumer sentiment...

📅 The next five months pose challenges, but we've got this! 💪 Rates are high, and the Fed plans to keep them that way for longer. 📈 🏃‍♂️ Despite the hurdles, we're ready to tackle the second half of the year. Last year was tough, but this won't be as bad! 🌎 As the economy approaches a potential recession, the Fed's war on inflation is crucial. If they succeed, rate hikes m...

Some folks are calling it a double top as it touched around 4.08, almost reaching 4.1 but just missing it by an inch! 📉 Looks like that resistance level has been tested a couple of times, but it's holding strong.   📉😨 The CPI print just came out, and it's showing low inflation numbers. The core inflation rate is at a mere 0.2% increase month over month. 😱 Project that over 12 months,...

In the current market landscape, we are witnessing a notable increase in mortgage interest rates, reaching levels that haven't been seen before.🏔️🏠 Understanding the impact of rate volatility is crucial, as the fluctuation of rates can significantly influence people's financial decisions and their spending habits.🛍️🛒 The Southern region of the country has experienced a substantial grow...

Our economy is displaying remarkable resilience! 💪   Despite predictions of a looming recession, we've managed to hold our ground. With homeowners benefiting from low fixed rates, extra income allows for increased spending. However, rising costs like taxes and insurance may impact the housing market. 🏠💰   Speaking of costs, inflation remains a concern. Prices are sticky, especially for non...

💰 $100 Billion Student Loan Debt: A Balancing Act for Our Economy! 📚💸 The recent bill signed by President Biden has allocated a staggering $100 billion towards student loan debt, making it a hot topic buzzing around the Hill in DC. As we delve into this financial maze, one thing becomes clear: this horse trade had its consequences. While the spending spree might be enticing, we can't ignor...

The national debt is now soaring to unprecedented heights—$32 trillion! Merely weeks after the enactment of the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023, we find ourselves at this staggering milestone. The velocity of debt accumulation is awe-inspiring, surpassing previous records with every passing moment. At a debt-to-GDP ratio of around 120%, the intricate dance between financial stability and burden...

Expensive goods reign supreme, enticing credit card enthusiasts. Cash diminishes, with just 10% of Americans using it. Amidst this, a comforting statistic emerges. Step into a world where dreams are bought and realities transformed. Brace yourself for the forthcoming year, as it promises to be the fourth largest on record, with an awe-inspiring $2.87 trillion worth of opportunities awaiting.  As t...

Get ready for a wild ride! The stock market is on fire, fueled by a powerful group of eight companies that are single-handedly driving 54% of the Nasdaq 100 and 25% of the S&P.  Speaking of technology, it's the hottest topic at the upcoming Mortgage Innovator Conference, where we'll delve into how it can revolutionize our industry. Investing in tech is the key to slashing expenses, s...

We have a strong job market with an estimated creation of 108,000 positions. The ADP payroll report dropped a bombshell, boasting over 200,000 jobs. The job market remains robust and highly competitive. The era of the "great quit" has seemingly come to an end. Inflation is stubbornly high! Leaving us wondering if it will persist or start to decline. If the Federal Reserve determines that...

Get ready as we dive into the world of consumer spending. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report is the Fed's preferred way to measure inflation. The PCE is like a snapshot of our spending habits, representing 70% of the economy. It shows us what we're buying and gives us an overall number. There's also a core number that excludes food and energy, which can be unpredicta...

Good news, folks! The prices of goods and services are dropping, which means you're paying less overall. Can you believe it? Even used cars have become more affordable. The recent manufacturing data shows a decline, indicating some challenges in the industry. The US PPI and inflation started to decrease. So, things are looking brighter for your wallets! In a whirlwind of financial moves, West...

Job market takes us on a wild ride! With a whopping 253,000 jobs created, we're all blown away - but wait, there's a twist! Prior months saw a downward revision of 149,000 jobs. What does this mean for us? Well, it's a bit of a mixed bag, but one thing's for sure - our unemployment rate continues to make history, dropping to a mere 3.3%, the lowest we've seen since 1969. W...

Introducing Pacaso, the new way to own a second home without breaking the bank! With Pacaso's co-ownership model, you can join 7 other LLCs on the title and finally have your dream home in Park City or Newport Beach Peninsula. Say goodbye to timeshares and hello to a new asset class that democratizes second homeownership. Don't just take our word for it, even the California Housing Finan...

Breaking news! The housing market is heating up with the largest increase in new listings since the peak. With over 80,000 listings and 20,000 already under contract, the demand is high but the supply has been scarce. As rates trend lower and summer approaches, sellers are starting to test the waters. And not only are the new listings going up, but the listing prices are too! Don't miss out o...

HUD is considering a proposal that would allow FHA loans to cover ADUs, providing more options for prospective homeowners. ADUs can be used to generate rental income and offset mortgage payments. With the potential for FHA loans to cover ADUs, homebuyers could leverage this strategy to maximize their investment and find their dream home! Homebuilders across the nation have reason to celebrate, as...

Wage growth is on the rise, but is it enough to keep up with inflation? According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the March jobs report shows that wages are trying to keep pace, but they're still lagging behind. Overall inflation is down to 5%, and the Fed is keeping a close eye on core CPI, which is showing a significant increase. It's not quite at the 2% target yet, but we're g...

When banks and non-banks buy things like mortgage-backed securities and treasuries, it affects their balance sheets.  If they are forced to sell these assets, they may not get as much money back as they paid for them. This could weaken the value of the dollar and potentially hurt the US economy. "Tech Deflators" are fighting against the evil villain "Inflation" to save the worl...

There is still a risk called duration risk in finance. It's about not knowing when someone will have to sell their investments and at what price. The Fed thinks they've taken care of it, but we can't be certain. Citizens Bank won an auction held by the FDIC with $120 billion available to cover losses for deposits of $250,000 or less. They bought the assets of Silicon Valley Bank, wh...

Did you know that every time you deposit money into your bank account, you're contributing to a special fund? The FDIC fund is a safety net that we all pay into, with a small fee taken out of our hard-earned cash. The fund has grown to a staggering $164 to $180 billion - a huge sum, but still not enough to handle the potential losses faced by banks. It's reassuring to know that our contr...

Holding onto mortgage-backed securities is like anchoring your vessel and weathering the storm. You can either watch the waves rise and fall as you mark to market, or you can hunker down and hold to maturity and you could switch mid-process. As the big money seeks safety in uncertain times, they may flock to treasuries like sailors seeking a sheltered harbor. This could cause treasury yields to dr...

As the financial world holds its breath, waiting for the Federal Reserve to make its move, the question on everyone's mind is: when will they pause?  The future seems covered in a haze of uncertainty, with no clear answer in sight. Will the Fed raise rates one more time? Three more times? 50 and then 25? It's like a game of roulette where nobody knows where the ball will land. HUD has wo...

Last week KP attended the ICE Experience 2023 - Intercontinental Exchange. ICE is Intercontinental Exchange, they own Encompass which is the largest LOS for Independent Mortgage Bankers. KP met President George W. Bush. He did a little quick meet and greet at his PRMG swag on with the American flag. Jeff Sprecher, the CEO and founder of ICE Intercontinental Exchange was there with his wife Kelly L...

Home prices have been rising making it more difficult for first-time homebuyers to enter the market. First time homebuyer age average went up to 36. Some reports are even saying 41. So when rates go higher, younger families can't afford to get into these higher-priced homes. There's demand, but not at higher rates. The Fed wants to crush inflation in housing components is a big part of i...