JSEDirect with Simon Brown

💸 Know Your Fees: Effective Annual Cost (EAC) Not all fees are created equal — EAC is the real number to watch. Applies to retirement products, LISPs, and unit trusts — not to stockbrokers. 📊 Understand the difference: TER (Total Expense Ratio) TIC (Total Investment Cost) EAC (includes platform + advisor + product fees) 🍏🍏 Apples-to-apples: Compare funds using EAC. 🎯 Target an EAC between 1.1...

This week, Simon Brown unpacks the numbers behind a recovering South African consumer, an attractive new renewable energy listing, and the latest moves in platinum group metals (PGMs). Plus, CrowdStrike's results, Omnia's cash pile (and SARS headache), and what falling bond yields mean for SA. In this episode: 📈 Retail recovery? Results from Mr Price* and TFG* show H2 improvement — are SA consume...

Simon has been doing a key note address over the last week and in this weeks podcast he takes a slightly different tack to what he usually presents. This time he is delivery his key note. He looks back over almost forty years of market crises that he's invested through. He shares the lessons he learnt, what caused the crisis and what the response was. This includes; 1987, EM Tigers of 1998, the Do...

SARB inflation target 🎯 Inflation remains well below target at 2.8%, raising expectations of a rate cut at Thursday's MPC meeting. New long-term target could shift to 3%. ⏳ Rate cut coming? Market's betting on 25bps; Simon wants 50bps. 💡 Lower target = anchored expectations = tamer wage negotiations. Peloton (PTON) 🚴‍♂️ The pandemic darling may be turning a corner with solid free cash flow ret...

🎯  Tariff Talks: Where Are We Now? Simon Brown recaps the evolution of Trump-era tariffs, with recent developments around: US-China deal: effective 54% tariff on Chinese goods, 10% on US goods UK, Mexico, Canada, Vietnam likely settling around 10% Expectations for other regions like EU, Saudi Arabia, South Africa Conclusion: tariff escalation seems contained, reducing recession risks Key Insight...

🧓 Warren Buffett Steps Down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Buffett officially steps aside as CEO at age 94, replaced by Greg Abel. Still remains Chairman Berkshire A shares up ~44,000% since the 80s No dividends ever paid, only share buybacks His legacy: simplicity, repeatable process, and long-term vision Emphasis on reading years of balance sheets and loving cash flow Fun fact: 96% of his net wor...

  🎙  Episode Summary: This week, Simon unpacks Alphabet's surprisingly cheap valuation, troubling US economic data, South African CPI figures, Trump's trade mess, and the implications of Aspen's customer fallout. Plus, he previews the Berkshire AGM and upcoming JustOneLap events. 📉 US Economic Data Shock Q1 GDP: Expected +0.2%, came in at –0.3% 😬 Imports surged 40%, skewing GDP down Retail inven...

Gold Pullback in Focus Gold surged to $3,500 before a sharp pullback to $3,321. Simon breaks down what caused the spike — including comments from Trump about Powell and rate cuts. Weekly chart shows potential kangaroo tail reversal — possible zone to watch: $2,800–$3,000. Gold | Weekly | 23 April 2025 Trump, Powell & IMF Forecast Downgrades Trump critiques Powell and Fed policy while possibly sett...

🌍 Global Markets Rundown Goldman Sachs suggests gold could plausibly hit $4,500/oz by year-end. Gold is currently around $3,200/oz, but volatility and uncertainty are driving prices higher. Gold miners are benefiting from the price surge, with big leverage showing up in earnings. Example: Pan African Resources made $900/oz at $2,250; could make $2,900 at $3,250. Big upside still possible if gold...

 🇿🇦 South African Budget & Political Risk Budget framework passed (barely) – VAT increase to 15.5% effective 1 May. GNU under pressure as ANC signals reformulation talks with partners. Rand volatility: Touched nearly R19.90/USD before recovering to ~R18.70. 💥 Global Markets in Turmoil S&P 500 down 18.25%, Nasdaq down 22.5%. Massive selloff: One of the steepest 4-day drops since 1950. But historic...

Simon Brown chats with Glynn Allen from Shyft Global on the history of the app and the recent introduction of JSE shares and a look ahead to new features.

  S&P 500 Bounce? After a rough start, Monday's trading saw a small recovery. But with Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements looming, markets could be in for more volatility. Budget Vote Approaches: The ANC lacks votes to pass the postponed budget, with opposition parties like MK and EFF holding out. Political and economic uncertainty remains high. Commodities on a Quiet Rally: Gold (+19.5...

Education Stocks: Winners and Losers Stadio: Strong performance with double-digit growth and 50,000+ learners. Benefiting from a shortage of university spaces and the struggles at UNISA. Potential for further growth through distance learning and university status. ADvTech*: Long-term holding with solid but not as aggressive growth. Strong presence in tertiary education and schools. Expansion into...

  Market Overview: Top 40 Index: Hit an all-time high of 82,378, currently at 81,800. SA markets remain strong despite a US market selloff. Top40 | Weekly | 18 March 2025 Gold: Broke $3,000 for the first time last week, currently around $3,030. Continues to rise amid geopolitical uncertainties. Gold | Weekly | 19 March 2025 Rand: Trading at 18.07, briefly touching 18.0088 earlier. Dollar weakness...

  The Atlanta Fed's GDP Forecast The Atlanta Fed GDPNow predicts a -2.4% GDP contraction for Q1 2025. Market uncertainty due to tariffs and economic policy concerns. Corporate travel and consumer bookings showing signs of weakness as Delta Airlines downgrades their expectations from mid January . Market Reactions and Sell-Offs Nasdaq and S&P had their worst single-day drops since 2022. Major stock...

Anglo-American's Cash Raid on Anglo-Platinum Anglo-American's decision to unbundle its stake in Anglo-Platinum raises concerns. Declaring a special dividend of R59 per share wipes out the company's entire R17.6 billion cash reserves. Implications for investors: selling pressure expected as shares land in new brokerage accounts. China's Tech Revival? The appearance of Jack Ma and Xi Jinping togethe...

Market Updates & Analysis: Sasol Reversal Pattern? – Examining Sasol's technical setup and the significance of a 'kangaroo tail' pattern. Rand Stability Amid Trump's Threats – Despite geopolitical concerns, the rand remains steady. Top 40 at All-Time Highs – Market momentum and investor confidence. South Africa's Budget Speech (Wednesday, 2 PM SAST) Revenue shortfalls and potential tax bracket adj...

  Trump Trade Tariffs & Global Market Impact: Initial tariffs of 10% (China) and 25% (Canada, Mexico) announced but later revised. U.S.-Canada relations strained, with Warren Buffett warning of reputational damage. Global negotiation shifts—China, Russia, and Europe eye opportunities. Continued U.S.-China trade tensions, including semiconductor restrictions and rare earth tariffs. Market volatilit...

The Cristal Challenge runs until October, with participants picking five local stocks (no ETFs or sub-20c stocks) to hold through the year. Simon's picks include a mix of stable "banker" stocks and speculative plays: Richemont*: High-end luxury giant with strong fundamentals and global market appeal despite challenges in China. Trading near R3,500, with long-term potential boosted by luxury market...

TSMC's Record-Breaking Results Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) hit $26 billion in quarterly revenue. A strong contender in the AI supply chain with growing global operations. Gold: Continuing the Bull Run Gold remains a strong investment pick for Simon, with a potential to hit $3,000/oz. Gold | Weekly | 21 January 2025 Brent Crude Oil Concerns Rising oil prices could hurt both th...

For the twelfth year in a row Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan & Simon Brown get together and make three predictions each for year ahead. They then also give their expectations for the local Top40 index and the Rand against the US$. But first every year they start by scoring their previous year predictions to keep things real and honest.