JSEDirect with Simon Brown

An investment check list Simon Shares Everybody is freaking out on the Capital&Counties (JSE code: CCO) sell off, some 50% off the highs of January. Really driven by three things; it had been flying, stronger ZAR against Sterling and concerns about Brexit. Long term not an issue, so if you love the stock nows your chance to get more cheaper. Kristia van Heerden (Just One Lap CEO) tweeted some thou...

Realistic expectations and success Simon Shares The rand is back where it was when then Finance Minster Nene was fired. So everybody who was lamenting that they missed their chance to get money offshore into USD, here's your second chance. The NewFunds ILBI (JSE code: NFILBI) is our focus ETF this week . Tracking inflation linked bonds it sounds perfectly boring but actually looks really interesti...

Hating on unit trusts Simon Shares SPIVA results for South Africa are out and they track how many active managers fail to beat the index. Truth is that even over 1 year most do NOT beat the index. In short, buy passive or lose money? The PDF of the report is here . Standard & Poors has downgraded SA's expected GDP for 2016 from 1.6% to 0.8% further cementing the likelihood of a downgrade to junk f...

Simon Shares Capitec (JSE code; CPI) results were solid but bad debts are rising. So is their profits but the bad debts are what we're watching at this point in the process. Momentum portfolio doing as it says on the sticker . Good out performance on down days, modest or under performance on up days. But the gold volatility remains wild. ZAR X, the first new stock exchange in South Africa in over...

When to sell? Simon Shares Yesterday, 23rd March, Just One lap turned five. It's been an awesome ride which we couldn't have down without the support of our users. So you everybody, thanks. A huge thank you. When to sell? Different answer depending if you are trading or investing. Great video from Anthony Clark on his top 5 small cap stocks for 2016. Divtrx ETF for those wanting dividends. We Get...

Simon Shares Trading in your personal capacity or using a PTY or Trust? Which is better? ETF changes. The MidCap ETF is now ASHMID and BBET40 is transferring to Core Shares from Nedbank . Seriously good interview with Jack Bogle, founder of Vanguard, the issuer of the worlds first indexing mutual fund.  Keith McLachlan Alpha Wealth small/mid cap fund manager AdvTech (JSE code: ADH) results were re...

Simon Shares Moody's did not downgrade us, but they did put us on review for a downgrade that will put us one notch above junk status. Then we'll have all three rating agencies on the same level with Standard & Poor heading the pack as we're on a negative outlook with them. Local bank results looking good with impairments improving (expect for Barclays Africa). On the surface they look cheap, but...

Simon Shares Clover (JSE code: CLR) has "decided to withdraw from future investments in Nigeria", seems hasty? Barclays exiting Africa selling off their ABSA (JSE code: BGA) stake, more hasty decisions? Nice boring results from Metrofile (JSE code: MFL), exactly as wanted. Big seller seems to now be gone after large transactions on Monday and stock has run hard since. New tax year, you can add ano...

Simon Shares Woolies (JSE code: WHL) offering script of cash for dividend. Default is cash, I'm taking new shares. Standard Bank (JSE code: SBK) trading update looks great, HEPS some 30% higher. But what of the R1,6bn write down for lost aluminium in China the previous year? The stock initially popped 8% higher but traded red by late morning. Budget 2016, Simon's thoughts Budget is R1.46tn vs R1.4...

Simon Shares Minister Gordhan delivers his budget speech next Wednesday, what can we expect in terms of new or higher taxes? STT, DWT and CGT? Remember, remember. The end of February is end of the tax year and you have until then to fill in your R30k limit for TFSA. If you already have hit your limit new year starts on 1 March 2016. We have recommended portfolio and my picks here. Anglo America (J...

Simon Shares Grindrod (JSE code: GND) just hit multi-year lows trading just above 900c with a net asset value (NAV) of over 2200c. Don't fight the trend, especially on cyclical stocks. RBA (JSE code: RBA) went bust on Tuesday. Of the three; RBA, Seakay and Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR) only Calgro M3 remains. Lesson is simple. Go back five years, Calgro M3 was by far the best of the three, always buy...

Simon Shares Where's the party? Review: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner Great Davos 2016 report back presentation with Nicky Newton-King (JSE CEO) and Bronwyn Nielsen (CNBC Africa). Next week Thursday we have another JSE Power Hour on Tax Free Savings Accounts (TFSA). Clive Butkow GroTech A Venture Capital company one can invest into and recei...

Simon Shares Markets are volatile, but is the bear dead? I am buying Metrofile (JSE code: MFL). Good solid business that has solid earnings and currently on a dividend yield of just over 4%. Why is low oil causing such concerns on global markets? One would think it is good for consumers and hence good for economies? Davos 2016 report back presentation with Nicky Newton-King (JSE CEO) and Bronwyn N...

Simon Shares AB Inbev (JSE code: ANB) has arrived on the JSE as the largest stock by a mile. But I am not excited nor am I buying. The market is looking just weak, but this does not smell like 2008. How many people saying that actually were in the markets in 2008? That said more downside likely, under 40,000 on the Top40 seems certain. 35,000 anybody? Drikus Combrinck Capicraft How much money shou...

We’re back! It's 2016, wowzer. This week’s show is our annual predictions show with Marc Ashton, GM at Moneyweb, Keith McLachlan, Small/Midcap fund manager at Alpha Wealth and Simon Brown from JustOneLap. We did our first predictions show in January 2014 and and the second a year later and this is now our third show. Find 2014 here and 2015 here . We promised to revisit our predictions a year late...

Every year we end the JSE Power Hour series with a presentation from Simon Brown of Just One Lap in which he looks at his predictions for 2016 and how to position your portfolio accordingly. The video is below but we have included the audio only into this weeks JSEDirect. Included in the presentation is; Reviewing the 2015 predictions Top stock picks for 2016 The South African economy (GDP growth,...

Simon Shares Santova (JSE code: SNV) released results that had some dodge workings with the results. Last year they had some abnormal items in their HEPS that they were more than happy to accept. This year they're saying, no take those out to compare against this year as we didn't have the abnormal profits. Well hang on, you can't have it both ways. Either you include and compare or you don't. Thi...

Simon Shares Astoria (JSE code: ARA) listed yesterday and traded pretty much inline with net asset value (NAV) of USD1.00. I hold and like it very much. But it could be a tough year for the stock if Rand strengthens and US markets slow. Balwin (JSE code: BWN) published their first set of results as a listed company, for the six months ending August. Really strong numbers but one confusing comment...

Simon Shares MTN (JSE code: MTN) continues to fall as the latest rumour says the fine will not be reduced but that it could be paid off in instalments. However MTN has as it there way not issued any SENS on this so the market remains blind with only rumours to speculate on. I consent to stay away and will continue to do so. Balwin, Stor-Age, Trellidor, M-FiTech (JSE codes: BWN, SSS, TRL & MFI). Wh...

Simon Shares Lonmin (JSE code: LON) a disaster of a storey. Back in July 2008 Xstrata offered GBP33 a share valuing he company at around R100billion at the time. It was rejected as under valuing the company. Stock has traded over R600 in 2007, now under 200c and a massive (seriously massive) rights issue at 21.4c. This national drought is getting very real with all sorts of implications for local...

Simon Shares MTN (JSE code: MTN) really is making a mess of a bad situation and I have sold my holding as I can no longer trust management. Capitec (JSE code: CPI) has boomed through R600. Nothing can hold this stock back. We Get Mail Arin My question relates to the previous podcast when you mention that you will not be selling your Calgro M3 shares and you say that they are “fairly valued.” You h...

Simon Shares Balwin (JSE code: BWN) listing has been modest very modest as the stock trades around 1020c after listing at 988c and the first trade at 1100c. Lonmin (JSE code: LON) announces a massive rights issue to deal with their debt maturing in the second quarter of 2016. Initially a massive spike (short squeeze) before it settled down. Famous Brands (JSE code: FBR) were not bad. But top line...

Simon Shares Sygnia (JSE code: SYG), I got 3.85% allocation which was far from thrilling and have sold my holding. Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) results looking good. Margins still tight with trading margin 1.3% vs. 1.2% and share still expensive but turn around is happening. Mediclinic (JSE code: MDC) becoming Al Noor via a reverse take over. They will have 73 hospitals with around 10,200 beds and 3...

Simon Shares Lots of new listings hitting the JSE. Here's my 5 words on each. Sygnia - have applied and will sell Balwin - also applied and will hold Waco - bad sector, stay far away Trellidor - why owners selling if great? Capital Appreciation - SPACS not my investment style Capital and Regional - prefer property via an ETF Platinum stocks are all over the place, Lonmin (JSE Code: LON) has double...

Simon Shares Capitec (CPI)* results, as a shareholder I liked them a lot, HEPS +25% on PE os 21x. Loan duration and size down that shows their ability to turn the taps on / off at will. Cost to income edges another 1% higher while they continue to grow clients and deposits. Tigerbrands (TBS) CEO steps down. Has not been a happy period for him; Nigeria, Kenya, losing market share at home. Glencore...