JSEDirect with Simon Brown

Simon Shares Zimbabwean coup, or not coup or whatever. People are all asking me what's the best investment thesis here. There isn't one, a coup is not great for an economy. A democratic functioning state is what is good for investments. My comments last week about large M&A activity seldom working promoted a number of responses about successful deals - but all were private (not listed). This makes...

Simon Shares More highs locally and global for markets. And of course that makes everybody worried and certain we're about to crash. Well we will most definitely crash, just nobody (and I mean nobody) knows when. So as always ignore the doomsayers. Tencent buys a 10% stake in Snap, a clever deal as it gets them into the US market. It also means we now all own some Snap via any Top40 ETF we have wi...

Simon Shares Famous Brands* (JSE code: FBR) results were nasty. Local was weak but the real issue is the UK GBP purchase that cost a bunch and is not performing. Long4Life (JSE code: L4L) is now 510c as I record. Nice price and a lesson that we must never chase stocks. Sasfin (JSE code: SFN) has a price-to-book (PB) of around 1x and that is always a buy signal for the stock. Ungeared and hold unti...

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Simon Shares Local markets have been making new all time highs and right now the sellers look shell shocked and unable to exert any real downside pressure. Taste (JSE code: TAS) results were just a shocker and they need money fast, real fast. Pick 'n Pay (JSE code: PIK) results were uninspiring. Like for like sales after inflation went down as they continue to lose market share and operating margi...

Simon Shares Just two weeks ago I was moaning about a sideways market going nowhere, now we have eight green days in a row with local markets joining much of the world at all time highs. Famous Brands* (JSE code: FBR) trading update was bleak, very bleak. Interest costs we expected, they suggest SA doing well enough. But UK losing money after paying some R2billion is a shocker. PPC (JSE code: PPC)...

Simon Shares Market going nowhere, I take a week off and it literally goes sideways in tight range. Capitec* (JSE code: CPI) results saw HEPS up 17% (trading statement said 15%-18%, they always come in near top of range). Lots of wow numbers; 9.2million active clients and cost-to-income ratio at 36%. The disputed arrears coverage ratio is back at 237% after concerns about it decreasing a year ago...

Simon Shares Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) results very modest as they reduce dividend for H2 but keep it flat for the year. Clover (JSE code: CLR) results were ouch, very ouch. They call it a perfect storm, I call it over priced branded milk. Spur (JSE code: SUR) were also very bleak and give us some insights to the Famous Brands* (JSE code: FBR) due at the end of October. Now Famous Brands has a wa...

Simon Shares Capitec* (JSE code: CPI) trading update is looking for HEPS to be 15%-18% higher. Modest for a 27x PE stock with consensus being 18.7%. The DB x-tracker ETFs will see their name change on Monday 18 September as Sygnia completes the purchase process. The new name is Sygnia Itrix and the ETF codes will see DBX replaced with SYG.Rhodes Food Group (JSE code: RFG) got hit after a trading u...

Simon Shares Telkom (JSE code: TKG) has confirmed government wants to sell their 39% stake in the company, likely to bail out SAA. Classic rookie error, exiting good trade to keep bad trades. Amazingly good results from Home Choice (JSE code: HIL), but with zero liquidity in the stock the results are merely of passing interest. Decent results form AdaptIT (JSE code: ADI) albeit some margin pressur...

Simon Shares Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) results were stellar, the best food retailer anywhere on this planet? Operating margin from 5.6% last year to 5.76% in the 2017 (more than double that of Pick n Pay), market share growing, rest of Africa rocking (albeit some currency pains). ADvTech (JSE code: ADH) results show tertiary booming but schools under a bit of pressure that they partly blame on "ri...

Simon Shares Curro (JSE code: COH) were mixed but mostly good. The lower priced schools struggled and the tertiary are still getting off the ground and will be unbundled in September. But for a stock on a PE of some 100x HEPS growth of just 22% is way to low. Anchor Group (JSE code: ACG) results were as expected from their trading update - a massive disappointment. Last March I was expecting HEPS...

Simon Shares New all time highs locally for the All Share Index, Indi25, Top40 and ALSI futures as latter traded one contract at 50,000 for first time ever. I love all time highs. Upcoming events; JSE Power Hour: Getting trading right with Trader Petri JSE Power Hour: Disruptions or Innovation We Get Mail Johan If everyone is making money from trading, who are they making the money off? The answer...

Simon Shares British American Tobacco (JSE code: BTI) is in trouble on two fronts. Firstly the US is looking at requiring nicotine be reduce to non-addictive levels. Then the UK is investigating the company bribing African governments to get favourable smoking legislation. I suspect many had though the legal issues for these companies were behind them. Bank results are showing surprisingly low dab...

Simon Shares PPC (JSE code: PPC) announced departure of CEO and share tanks. This company in serious board room trouble. Kumba (JSE code: KIO) results were decent, dividend was wild (ahead of actual HEPS) as they compensated shareholders for missed dividends! This is odd and asks the question about dividends going forward. Concern is average cash break-even price of US$43/tonne was up from US$29/t...

Simon Shares Finally, 5 weeks after moving my FTTH has been installed so I am going to Periscope each recording as it happens which is typically Wednesday afternoon. https://www.pscp.tv/SimonPB/ Retail trading updates coming in and as expected they are mostly bleak, but we are seeing the impact of the rains mostly returning. Netflix is a monster, over 100million customers world wide. Long4Life is...

Simon Shares Finally, 5 weeks after moving my FTTH has been installed so I am going to Periscope each recording as it happens which is typically Wednesday afternoon.  Calgro M3* (JSE code: CGR) update on their missing SENS. Feeling is that the impact is marginal and will hardly hurt earnings? Time will tell, I still don't like asymmetrical information. Oakbay (JSE code: ORL) is delisting from the...

Simon Shares New Satrix ETFs; S&P500, MSCI World Index and MSCI Emerging Markets Investable Markets and at low 'target' TERs. A price war in the local ETF offerings? Wednesday was exactly ten years since the UK had an interest rate increase from the BoE? Calgro M3* (JSE code: CGR) issued a press release stating that they're cutting back on 'wet work' in the Western Cape due to drought. But no SENS...

Simon Shares Taste (JSE code: TAS) couldn't get the public to take up all of the 120million new shares, but a new shareholder of note did and it good news for the company. Naspers (JSE code: NPN) results talk of core HEPS. Now sure they tell us what 'core' means but as always I very skeptical of anything that is not IFRS. Wescoal (JSE code: WSL) results in part really hit it out the park with prod...

Simon Shares Woolies* (JSE code: WHL) share price is under pressure hitting 12 month lows on Monday. Recession is hurting them as high LSM consumers shop down and even Australia is struggling economically. The winner here will be Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) as they cater for mid/low LSM consumers and will pick up Woolies shoppers. Index changes effective Monday 19th. Only changes from the main four...

Simon Shares Finally moving so at the pointy end of going small. Move date is next Wednesday which is also my recording day, so frankly not sure what the plan is re JSE Direct for next week. Will try make a plan, maybe a rebroadcast. PPC (JSE code: PPC), HEPS down 93% at 7c but this is all about the rest of Africa and a possible merger with AfriSam. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) results not bad, but s...

Simon Shares Famous Brands* (JSE code: FBR) results were decent enough with the UK acquisition only adding a small bit to the bottom line. I have been buying in the low R130's. An article on Moneyweb that strips out the top five expensive and heavy weighted stocks in the Top40 shows a historic PE of around 12.5x. In other words offering value and adding to my bullish thesis.  Spar (JSE code: SPP)...

Unconscious Competence Maslow's theory of how we progress and ultimately become Unconscious Competent traders. Unconscious Incompetence Conscious Incompetence Conscious Competence Unconscious Competence JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Li...

Simon Shares Blitz round of result comments; Richemont* (JSE code: CFR) Calgro M3* (JSE code: CGR) Lonmin (JSE code: LON) Astral (JSE code: ARL) Vodacom (JSE code: VOD) Balwin (JSE code: BWN) * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; CoreShares investment disciplines & transactional website JSE Power Hour: Investing while junk JSE Power Hour: Ways that management can mislead investors CoreShar...

Simon Shares Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) announced that former CEO Basson would be exercising a put option to company forcing it to buy back some R1.8billion of Shoprite shares. No problem, except did we know about this put structure? They say it was part of his December 2003 employment contract, but the annual reports of 2003/4/5 make no mention of it? Adcorp (JSE code: ADR), horror update. They ar...