JSEDirect with Simon Brown

2021 predictions show Every year  Marc Ashton ,  Keith McLachlan  and  Simon Brown do a predictions show. Three wild and woolly predictions for the markets followed by a call on the Top40 and ZAR for the year ahead. Importantly we start each show with a review of the previous year's predictions and you'll find the 2020 predictions show here . Subscribe to our feed  here Subscribe or review us in ...

Offshore / Tech wild year / Oil goes negative / Gold breaks $2,000 / Brexit / Tesla Local / Sasol / Top40 green for the year & just off all-time highs / Even the Rand recovered most of the losses and trades better than 5 years ago / Budget deficit / Lots of business rescue, but less than I expected

Simon Shares Trellidor* (JSE code: TRL), I've been buying. We've seen DIY stocks doing well and small SA Inc shares surprise to the upside and I think this could be one of them. Interim is end December so an update should arrive mid-February. Sygnia (JSE code: SYG) results were really good. This stock was very expensive at listing and above 2400c in 2016 it was crazy. But price came down and earni...

Offshore / US$908billion stimulus plan proposed for the US / US markets at new highs / Salesforce buying Slack for US$27.7billion / Pfizer vaccine starts being administered this week in the UK / Oil moving higher / Gold bounces need to get above US$1,860 Local / Sasol update, likely rights issue will be smaller / Locusts in NC, WC & FS and returning rains / Barloworld results (and price surge) / V...

Simon Shares Really strong November for stocks. France and Italy had their best months ever, S&P500 +11% and JSE +10%. The Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine has been approved for use in the UK starting next week. Limited supplies so front line workers and old people first. But this is good news and suggests that the news for 2021 will be more about rolling out of the vaccine albeit probably also lots of s...

Offshore / U.K. economy is forecast to contract by 11.3% this year, "the largest fall in output for 300 years," Chancellor Rishi Sunak tells MPs / Musk now the worlds second richest person / Janet Yellen tipped for Biden cabinet as Treasury Secretary / China imposing tariffs on Australia, especially their wine. / Down Jones trades above 30,000 for the first time. / Black Friday 2020 online shoppin...

Simon Says Another week another vaccine. U.K. economy is forecast to contract by 11.3% this year, "the largest fall in output for 300 years," Chancellor Rishi Sunak tells MPs. US Jobless Claims +30K To 778K In Nov-21 Week, secondly weekly rise. Continuing Claims -299K to 6,071,000 for Nov-14 week. Dow Jones trades above 30,000 for the first time on Tuesday & S&P500 closed at a new all-time high. D...

Offshore / Another Monday another vaccine ~ Moderna / 12 million Americans are on track to lose unemployment benefits in December if Congress doesn't extend key programs that were part of the CARES Act passed in March. / JPMorgan forecasts negative GDP in the first quarter, the first Wall St. bank to begin forecasting a negative reading. JPM expects the economy to bounce back in / Amazon moving in...

Simon Shares Another week, another vaccine. This time from Moderna and also using the Messenger RNA as does the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine. Stor-Age* (JSE code: SSS) results very solid. Wilson Bayly Holmes (JSE code: WBO) results not great as Australia hurts, again. Raubex (JSE code: RBX) announces an R2.87billion contract win from Sanral. Strong Spar (JSE code: SPP) results. Boeing 737 MAX 8 retur...

Offshore / Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine news / U.K. economy expands by 15.5% in the third quarter, the most on record yet adds another Sterling150billion in stimulus / Disney reports first loss in 40 years, but Disney+ hits 73m subs / Emirates eyes return to profitability in 2022 only / Deutsche Bank proposes a 5% tax for people still working from home after the pandemic / DoorDash files IPO plans, NYS...

Simon Shares US elections, everybody nows who won except the orange one and the GOP. Vaccine news from Pfizer and BioNTech has changed market behaviour. Banks and consumer stocks now the rage while tech and gold is falling. Locally banks are flying. Fini15 daily chart Interesting to see the JSE All Share up circa 14.4% over the last 6. months yet its biggest constituent Naspers only up 3.71% over...

Offshore / US elections over / US unemployment rate 6.9% / Ant IPO cancelled / BoE no change & QE increased by £150 billion to £895 billion / Berkshire Hathaway bought back a record $9 billion in stock in the third quarter Local / Rand strength / Results; Dis-Chem, Richemont & Foschini / Aspen vaccine JV with J&J

Simon Shares US Election results pretty much playing as expected. Trump doing well in early counting but some important states still to come but he has declared victory and is heading for the courts. Upcoming events; 05 November ~  JSE Power Hour: Searching for income 19 November ~ Twenty years of ETFs Subscribe to our feed  here Subscribe or review us in  iTunes Finding infrastructure stocks Glob...

Simon Shares Distell Group (JSE code: DHG) issued a solid update albeit short on numbers with one exception. They reduced net debt by some R1.7billion which is a massive number. Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) is heading into Nigeria and the market is worried as Nigeria is littered with the bodies of corporate South Africa. But they are doing so in smaller regional malls and not going big, so if it fai...

Simon Shares PPC (JSE code: PPC) results. The $150million debt in the DRC is the problem. If they solve that they'll do a rights issue. If not they're bankrupt. The president's speech on Thursday should give them some hope as he likely promises lots of energy and infrastructure spending. Balwin (JSE code: BWN) results. Not bad considering, they paid a dividend and I like them at current prices. Co...

Offshore / The Congressional Budget Office estimates that, for the 2020 fiscal year, the U.S. deficit will be $3.13 trillion (15.2% of GDP). This number would cause the total U.S. national debt to come in at 102% of GDP in 2020, the first time since 1946 that the U.S. debt has been larger than its economy. / A new stimulus package on or off the table? / The U.K. economy grew by 2.1% in August, les...

Simon Shares How to fix the JSE, some great ideas by Keith McLachlan. SARB buys R39.4billion of local government bonds in the secondary market in September. French Canal+ takes 6.5% stake in Multichoice (JSE code: MCG). Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) says their loyalty program is a huge part of them gaining R4billion in market share? Launched a year ago it has over 5million members. Pick n Pay (JSE cod...

Offshore / Trump Covid-19 with elections 4 weeks away. / US unemployment 7.9% / Disney to lay off 28,000, American Airlines 19,000 & 12,000 United Airlines / Palantir lists with direct listing / Airbnb listing progressing with $20billion valuation Local / Unemployment numbers / August CPI 3.1% / Capitec results / Alviva results / Ascendis Health results (issued, cancelled and re-issued) / Remgro r...

Simon Shares Day 188 of lockdown. August CPI 3.1%. Everybody now suddenly knows about the expanded unemployment rate? Capitec* (JSE code: CPI) results were as always solid. Hit hard by the pandemic, but resilient. Valuations are rich, as always. Alviva (JSE code: AVV). Remember old Pinnacle, once a darling and then hit by claims of dodge tenders. They bought Datacentrix changed their name to Alviv...

Simon Shares Day 181 of lockdown. The Tongaat (JSE code: TON) deal to sell their starch unit to Barloworld for R5.35billion is happening and the Tongaat share price loved the news. We're seeing a strong bounce locally while the US markets are also having a better run, risk back on (for now). But what was odd was gold. It didn't run as stocks were selling off and has actually weakened. The point is...

Offshore / BoE, Fed and BOJ all left rates unchanged, BoE 'explores' negative rates. / TikTok deal with Oracle (and Walmart) confirmed. / Wechat ban from midnight, 3.3million users in America and China threatens to expand its "unreliable entities list". But "TRUMP'S PROHIBITION ON WECHAT IN U.S. IS PUT ON HOLD BY JUDGE" / OECD ups global 2020 gdp, but drops ours / Snowflake IPO price of $120 and i...

Simon Shares Day 174 of lockdown. Level 1? The Foschini Group (JSE code: TFG) trading update spooked the market, but it was the six months to end September. In other words, all lockdown. African Rainbow Capital (JSE code: AIL) results including an R750million non-renounceable rights issue. Trading at some 75% discount to the net asset value (NAV). Sure some decent assets, but the market has hated...

Offshore / US markets remain volatile as Nasdaq has worst week since March / LVMH Tiffany deal is off/delayed / Brexit talks going all messy / UK economy grew 6.6% in July as gradual recovery continues / Opec turns 60 Local / Q2 GDP -51%, or -16.4% / Firstrand results / Shoprite results / Aspen sale & results / Zeder CEO quits and the company is looking for a new strategy / White & yellow maize ab...

Simon Shares Day 167 of lockdown. Local Q2 GDP -16.4% (-51% if you annualise it). Makes us one of the worst-hit economies for Q2, not surprising as we did very hard lockdown. Now to get out of the hole and that's going to be the hard part. Of our three main political parties, the honest answer is none of them really have a workable economic policy that we need right now. Serious buying of SA inc s...

Offshore / US unemployment 8.4% (Temporary Census work (+238,000 jobs) accounted for around one-sixth of the August gain of 1.4 million jobs) / Thursday sell-off with Friday red, but less bad. Monday closed for labour day. / India bans another 188 Chinese apps / Carnival Corporation's Costa Cruises to Restart Cruise Operations This Weekend out of Italy. / Tesla does not go into the S&P500. Instead...