Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time'

Adam Smith's invisible hand is solving the 'China problem' Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our September 28 note and consider becoming a paid subscriber .  We made this week’s full note available to everyone, the link to the note is listed below. If you are a recent free subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com https://ironsidesmacro.s...

Trade Restriction or Reciprocity, October 'QE Lite' and the end of forward guidance Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our September 21 note and consider becoming a paid subscriber, if you are not already, to read the full report .  If you are a recent free subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com Fed Chairman Powell’s justification for t...

Was the wild week for equity factors and Treasuries due to the growth mix shift? Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our September 15 note and consider becoming a paid subscriber, if you are not already, to read the full report .  If you are a recent free subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com Last week’s analysis of mortgage-backed secu...

Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our September 7 note and consider becoming a paid subscriber, if you are not already, to read the full report .  If you are a recent free subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com Only the Fed Can Save Us After returning home from a television appearance this week, I had the following conversation with my...

Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our August 31st note and consider becoming a paid subscriber, if you are not already, to read the full report .  If you are a recent free subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com Equities had a strong week as officials from both sides of the trade war attempted to diffuse tensions, however, emerging mark...

Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our August 17th note and consider becoming a paid subscriber, if you are not already, to read the full report .  If you are a recent free subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com The August tariff tweet correction morphed into yet another recession scare due to a convexity exacerbated rally in global gov...

Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our August 10th note and consider becoming a paid subscriber, if you are not already, to read the full report .  If you are a recent subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com When we recommended cutting risk on August 2, we considered downside risk for US equities from currency correlation effects, the li...

Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our August 2nd note and consider becoming a paid subscriber, if you are not already, to read the full report .  If you are a recent subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com A lot has gone right for US equity investors in 2019 and until now, other than a tactical call to reduce global risk in May; we have...

Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our July 27th note and consider becoming a paid subscriber, if you are not already, to read the full report .  If you are a recent subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com The ECB Governing Council’s decision to allow the Fed to make the first monetary policy-easing move, while temporarily disappointing...

Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our July 13th note and consider becoming a paid subscriber, if you are not already, to read the full report . If you are a recent subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com What we learned from the first week of 2Q earnings season Despite it being early in 2Q19 earnings season, we have seen evidence suppor...

Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our July 13th note and consider becoming a paid subscriber, if you are not already, to read the full report We expect the Fed to cut rates 25bp in July, pull forward the end of balance sheet contraction and later this fall change their inflation target from 2%, to an average of 2% through the cycle.  Not to be outdone, the ECB will change forward gui...

Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our June 22 note and consider becoming a paid subscriber, if you are not already, to read the full note You’re Really Going to Cut After Friday? Following the May employment report, we reiterated our view that the obsession with the statistical noise monthly net change in employment rather than trends in labor market turnover risked getting the econo...

Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our June 22 note and consider becoming a paid subscriber, if you are not already, to read the full note IP, Innovation, Policy, Productivity and Margins Robert Gordon in the “Rise and Fall of American Growth” concluded the best innovation is behind us.  Erik Brynjolfsson’s in “The Second Machine Age”, reached the opposite conclusion.  Robert Solow co...

Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our June 22 note and consider becoming a paid subscriber to read the full note In this week’s note, we are going to consider the range of outcomes for equities, credit and rates ahead of next week’s G20 ‘extended meeting’ between President’s Xi and Trump.  Barry C. Knapp Managing Partner Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC 908-821-7584 https://www.linkedin....

Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our June 15 research note and consider becoming a paid subscriber to read the full note * This week’s Chinese and US data strengthen the case for trade detente * The Fed confirms a bias to ease, but a rate cut is reason to be short not long * Productivity, innovation and FANG antitrust risk * Barry C. Knapp Managing Partner Ironsides Macroeconomics L...

Economic Stability, Policy Uncertainty Shocks and Market(s) Volatility This is a podcast summary of our weekly note. The full note is available to paid subscribers, our basic rate for individuals is $89/month or $999/year. https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Barry C. Knapp Managing Partner Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC 908-821-7584 https://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/ @barryknapp This is a pu...

We have transitioned to our notes to a free summary and full note for paid subscribers after three months. If you need more time to assess the value or complete an internal process please contact us and we will extend your trial. A description of the product and price document is available on request. This is a podcast summary of our weekly note. The full note is available to paid subscribers, our...

This weekend we published our last free complete note before transitioning to a free summary and full note for our paid subscribers format. Here is an audio summary of that note where we review the last three months of notes and our outlook. Please subscribe today. This is an audio summary of this week’s note (link below). https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com/p/still-hearing-echoes Barry C. Knapp M...

Because of the favorable response of the podcast summary of our weekly note to all of our readers last week, here it is again. Next weekend we will offer our last free complete note before transitioning to a free summary and full note for our paid subscribers only. Please subscribe today. The household deleveraging cycle and discretionary sector stunning outperformance. This is a brief audio summa...

Please click on the link for a brief audio summary of this week’s note. https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com/p/beggar-thy-neighbor-ii This product has been available for paid subscribers only, this week we are offering it to everyone ahead of our June 1st format conversion when the full notes will only be available to paid subscribers. Please become a paid subscriber today. Barry C. Knapp Managing...

Nathaniel E. Baker and I on April 2nd recorded the pilot episode of his podcast series: The Contrarian Investor. We discussed the yield curve, the market’s misreading of the March FOMC meeting, the outlook for domestic and global growth and investing in banks, small caps and Treasury bear steepeners. Barry C. Knapp Managing Partner Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC 908-821-7584 https://www.linkedin.com...