Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time'

Fed resistance to repurposing taxpayer funds, Gig workers go back to work and cyclicals continue to outperform Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or if you are an institutional client, on boarding us to your research platform to read our full note and gain access to our client presentation, measures of risk and valuation, recommended reading list and additional products. If you would like...

The final wave, a mini growth scare, stimulus calculus and the (not so) lame duck Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or if you are an institutional client, on boarding us to your research platform to read our full note and gain access to our client presentation, measures of risk and valuation, recommended reading list and additional products. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would...

A blowout employment report, Republican success everywhere except the top of the ticket, TCJA is likely to survive and the '21 capex outlook. This week’s report The Not So Commanding Heights Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or if you are an institutional client, on boarding us to your research platform to read our full note and gain access to our client presentation, measures of risk an...

Risk off sell everything, payrolls preview, equity volatility is the only escape valve and fasten your seat belt This week’s report Be Greedy When Others are Fearful Figure 1: SPX risk is the S&P 500 Volatility, the Volatility of Volatility, correlation and skew indices as well as the term structure of VIX futures (6 month less 1 month) in a z-score format. Wednesday it expanded to 2.43 standard d...

Contrarian polling, lockdown nation fading despite increased cases, election strategy and a big week for earnings and macro data This week’s report: Over? Did you say Over? Figure 3: We want to draw your attention on the 2018-2019 period when world GDP was positive, but global trade contracted. There is no other similar period since China was integrated into global supply chains. Please consider b...

The fiscal cliff that wasn't, structuralism antitrust policy and the 2021 policy outlook Reconciliation A once a year opportunity to circumvent the filibuster… Figure 5: Healthcare margins have contracted for 3-decades, we believe technology innovation adoption is critical to the nascent recovery extending through the ‘20s. Expanding the role of government is likely to slow the process. Please con...

Reflation, earnings and fiscal dominance lessons from the '40s and '50s Let's Be Independent Together Figure 5: Price instability, as measured by the rolling standard deviation of CPI, is rebounding. It was extreme in the post-war period, both interest and exchange rates were fixed leaving domestic consumer prices as one of the few escape values for business cycle pressures. Here is a video from a...

An October surprise, the 'Y' shaped recovery, and Financial repression or MMT? The Home Stretch Figure 2: There has been no improvement in continuing claims in California. California’s insured unemployment rate is 16.1%, New York’s is 13.7%, Texas is 7.7% and Florida is 4.3%. Pandemic NPIs in coastal states are slowing the recovery. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or if you are an inst...

Add equity risk, the mix of growth matters, and clean up of the Nasdaq aisle It's Still Early Figure 3: We will be scouring earnings reports and the data for evidence of improved capital spending plans. 2021 is likely to be a very strong year for capex though a reversal of the corporate provisions of the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act is a significant risk. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or if y...

Reflation & recovery, tax & spend, fade the Fed reaction CNBC Reflation & Recovery Figure 2: The recovery of import prices began with détente in the Trump trade war and has continued through the pandemic. The easing of the demand for dollar denominated safe assets and associated dollar decline is a contributing factor, unlike the last cycle we do not expect imported deflation to resume as global s...

Skew collapses as Nasdaq positions get rinsed, banks are flush & inflation awakens Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note  2020 QE is Different this Time Figure 2: Most investors think of skew (the premium for out-of-the-money options) in terms of downside put protection, however skew was rich all summer largely due to demand for upside calls on pandemic beneficiaries...

The Nasdaq whale, fiscal cliff that wasn't and a week of mostly charts Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note  A Whale of a Short Gamma Position Figure 12: The spread between equity market and other asset classes market measures of risk got fairly extreme this week. The tech wreck was not triggered by macro risks. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or if you...

The Fed scraps the Phillips Curve, inflation expectations rising and the case for anti-trust Bloomberg TV: "The market continues to defy us and just grind higher" Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note  Economists against FANG Figure 6: These longer-run yield curves and market implied inflation increased sharply this week. The market took the Fed at their word they wi...

The folly of collectivism, reflation, small business credit supply and real rate risk I will be appearing on Bloomberg TV with Jonathan Ferro at 9:30 AM EST on Monday Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note  Reflation Figure 4: This chart is the best illustration of why the Fed should target price stability not a 2% target. We are unconvinced by their deflation risks t...

Macro momentum & pandemic progress offset policy stumbles, real rate reversal risk, and the labor market recovery continues unabated Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note  A Real (Rate) Shocker Figure 3: The rate of change matters, as balance sheet expansion slows the risks of a policy normalization shock will increase. Below is a link to our 2H20 outlook note that i...

Here is our appearance this morning on CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/08/03/ironsides-barry-knapp-on-tech-macro-trends-that-began-pre-coronavirus.html The 4th industrial revolution, reduce risk, resilient capex, enhanced UI debate and lack of a credible fiscal consolidation plan Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note The Lack of a Credible Plan Figure 2: Califo...

Micro to macro, high powered money, the tech wreck, Keynesian stimulus and herd immunity Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note Rational Expectations I will be appearing on CNBC’s The Exchange with Kelly Evans at 1pm EST Monday July 27 Figure 6: The election curve is steepening, this is part of the explanation for the still elevated measures of equity market risk. It...

Supply side stimulus, economic momentum, earnings surprise and Fed strategy Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note Ironsides Macroeconomics Figure 6: The US economic surprise index is at an all-time high and has continued to increase relentlessly underscoring how misunderstood economic dynamism is in the US relative to the rest of the world. The greater role of techno...

The labor market recovery continues, corporate tax politics & an earnings season rally Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC We did not release a podcast last week because we placed our 2H20 outlook outside the paywall (link below) and wanted everyone to read it. Additionally, we closed the New Jersey office and relocated full time t...

US innovation, back to work, capex plans recover, wage rigidity and imported deflation Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Figure 2: The widening spread between the cumulative increase in initial claims and continuing claims is our proxy for back-to-work. The insured unemployment rate and continuing...

The Fed forecast ignites a risk-off episode and a look at fiscal and monetary policy post-election Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Below are links to four recent reports that are outside the paywall so you can get a sense for the subscriber product. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or...

Don't fight the business cycle, a global trade and capex recovery, payrolls review and Treasury market struggles Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Below are links to four recent reports that are outside the paywall so you can get a sense for the subscriber product. Please consider becoming a paid...

Yield curve control, early signs of recovery, sector recommendation changes and more balanced equity market risk/reward Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Below are links to four recent reports that are outside the paywall so you can get a sense for the subscriber product. Please consider becoming a paid...

Lockdowns, beyond put/call ratios, a housing recovery and the Roaring '20s? Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Here is a link to a CNBC interview this morning we posted on Twitter, please follow us @barryknapp Below are links to four recent reports that are outside the paywall so you can get a sense for t...

Billionaires' row, socialism with Chinese characteristics and creative destruction Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Below are links to four recent reports that are outside the paywall so you can get a sense for the subscriber product. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or if you are an institut...