ING THINK aloud

In this week’s THINK aloud, we bring you the highlights of our Economics Live webinar, where we discussed the outlook for the global economy, monetary policy and financial markets with ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, James Smith and Francesco Pesole.

2023 was the hottest year on record. The Copernicus Climate Change Service says   temperatures last year likely exceeded “those of any period in at least the last 100,000 years”. Yet the United Nations says global commitments to slash greenhouse gas emissions are still “falling far short of what is required”. Without urgent action, scientists say, our planet faces severe and irreversible climate d...

Recent months have seen the US dollar on a powerful bull run. Propelled by strong economic growth and a hawkish Federal Reserve, which has signalled that interest rates will stay higher for longer, the dollar index has risen around 5% since July. But will this strong dollar theme continue in 2024? ING's Chris Turner has his doubts.

The price of oil surged more than 30% in the third quarter, driven by solid global demand, supply cuts from OPEC+ and additional voluntary cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia. But is the market starting to turn? And what does it all mean for growth, inflation and monetary policy? ING's Head of Commodities Strategy, Warren PattersonSenior Economist Bert Colijn says this has serious implications f...

As interest rates in the US, UK and Europe approach a peak, and economic growth shows further signs of faltering, the focus has firmly shifted to rate cuts. In this week's THINK aloud, a replay of ING's live central bank webinar, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss their forecasts for monetary policy over the coming year while Chris Turner explains what it a...

As the Western world struggles to tame high inflation, fears of persistent deflation are taking root in China. Prices at the factory gate have been dropping for months and in June, fell at the fastest pace in seven years. Consumer prices, meanwhile, have begun to flatline. The property market is stagnating and the economy overall has been losing momentum, fuelling speculation that China could be f...

Global temperatures have shattered records this month, heightening the urgency to reduce carbon emissions. But the energy transition and the shift to electric vehicles, in particular, is fraught with challenges, as ING Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey explains in this podcast.

In this podcast, a replay of an ING event this week, Developed Markets Economist James Smith and Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne discuss the outlook for UK inflation, interest rates, and mortgage costs, and whether a recession is now inevitable while Global Head of Markets Chris Turner explains what the markets are looking for - and why the pound has recently been faltering.

In a live webinar event this week, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski and James Smith discussed the outlook for inflation, economic growth and monetary policy around the world while Chris Turner explained what it could all mean for markets.

As talks to raise the US debt ceiling go down to the wire, and the threat of a default looms large, currency markets have remained remarkably composed. In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner discusses what could happen to the dollar if a deal is not agreed, and what he expects from the rest of the FX world in the months ahead.

As two more regional US lenders - PacWest and Western Alliance - saw their share prices collapse this week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates again but hinted that this may be the peak of the tightening cycle. In this podcast, ING's Chief International Economist James Knightley explains why he expects the Fed to reverse course "very quickly and very sharply" while ING's H...

With soaring public debt since the Covid pandemic and much higher debt servicing costs after aggressive rate hikes around the world, emerging markets remain a risky proposition. Some countries, like Zambia, Ghana, and Sri Lanka have already defaulted. The IMF has revised down its forecasts for EM economies in recent months, and the global impact of the recent banking crisis in the US and Europe is...

In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Sector Research Jeroen van den Broek and Credit Strategist Tim Rahill discuss how the recent turmoil in the banking sector has impacted the credit market and why they remain constructive on the outlook for corporate bonds in 2023.

In this podcast, ING's Padhraic Garvey and Antoine Bouvet discuss the latest central bank decisions to raise interest rates despite recent turmoil in the banking sector.

In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss where interest rates may be heading in the US, Europe and UK while Chris Turner explains what this could all mean for global markets.

One year after Russia’s devastating invasion of Ukraine, Europe is still learning to adapt to the new economic reality. In this podcast, ING’s Warren Patterson, Peter Vanden Houte and Chris Turner discuss the short- and long-term implications of the war for energy supplies, the economy and global financial markets.

In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski and James Smith discuss whether interest rates in the US and Europe are close to a peak, what this could mean for the global economy and whether rate cuts could be in the offing this year.

Global commodity markets have swung wildly this year, and the volatility may be set to continue into 2023. While Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent prices surging earlier in the year on concern that supply would be disrupted, worries about demand have since become the main driving force, with Brent crude falling below $80 a barrel this week for the first time since January. In this podcast, ING's W...

The COP27 climate summit in Egypt was supposed to be the moment when governments turned lofty aspirations into real world action, implementing the climate pledges made in Glasgow last year. Instead, meaningful progress on critical issues has stalled, with some countries even being accused of backsliding on their original commitments. Still, ING economist Gerben Hieminga and ESG researcher Coco Zha...

After four 75bp rate hikes, the US Federal Reserve has signalled a slower pace of tightening ahead. But Chair Jerome Powell also warned that it is "very premature" to consider a pause and that rates may need to stay higher for longer, as the Fed battles to contain inflation near a 40-year high. In this podcast, ING's Chief International Economist James Knightley and Regional Head of Americas, Padh...

In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner, James Smith and Antoine Bouvet discuss the UK government's fiscal policy, why it's sent markets into a tailspin and whether the Bank of England's intervention will be enough to stave off a financial crisis.

In this week's THINK aloud, ING's Chris Turner, Developed Markets Economist James Smith and Senior Rates Strategist Antoine Bouvet discuss the latest inflation data from the US and UK, the implications of intervention in energy markets in Europe and the outlook for monetary policy.

The European Central Bank cited the weak euro as one reason to raise interest rates by 75bp on Thursday - the most on record. But tighter monetary policy is unlikely to change the euro's course. In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Markets Chris Turner explains why - and shares his broader outlook for the FX world in the months ahead.  

The Bank of England raised interest rates by 50bp on Thursday, the most in a quarter century, as inflation sits at a 40-year high. And despite forecasting a protracted recession amid an 'exceptionally' uncertain backdrop, the central bank also pledged to act 'forcefully' again in the future. In this podcast, ING's James Smith discusses the rationale behind the decision and what could happen next.&...

The Securities and Exchange Commission's climate disclosure rules were controversial from the start. But a recent ruling by the US Supreme Court has cast further doubt on the regulator's ability to implement the proposal. In this podcast, ING's Deputy General Counsel Tim Meehan and ESG Analyst Coco Zhang explain why the rules matter so much for investors and what could happen now.