Inflection Point

After another week of continued turmoil across the banking sector, Mike and Mark discuss the developing fallout since Silicon Valley Bank's collapse. This week, Credit Suisse faced record outflows, resulting in a $54 Billion loan from the Swiss National Bank as the bank faces a "crisis of confidence". To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/O...

On today's episode of On the Margin, Caitlin Long Founder & CEO at Custodia Bank & Nic Carter Founding Partner at Castle Island Ventures join the show to discuss the recent banking turmoil with the collapse of Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank which led to the closure of Signature Bank over the weekend. Interest rate risk in HTM portfolios was the key driver of the recent bank runs we have seen,...

Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Market Depth On YouTube: http://bit.ly/3JKhw8I -- On today's episode of On the Margin, Weston Nakamura, the latest addition to the Blockworks team joins the show to discuss his brand new podcast Market Depth! You can follow the links above to listen to the first episode o...

This debut episode is from our brand new podcast Market Depth hosted by Weston Nakamura. Follow Market Depth using the links below to stay up to date with the latest episodes! Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Market Depth On YouTube: http://bit.ly/3JKhw8I -- Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthesp...

This week, after a week of turmoil across the banking industry, Mike & Mark discuss the collapse of Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank. With fears mounting over the mark to market value of bank's asset's, we walk through the dynamics which led to depositors running for the exit doors in typical bank run style fashion. What lies ahead for the banking industry from here? Will contagion spread like i...

On today's episode of On the Margin, Shehzad Qazi Managing Director at China Beige Book joins the show for a discussion on the cyclical and secular outlook for the Chinese economy. As China has announced their full reopening, Shehzad is able to walk through the data China beige Book has been able to collect throughout January and February. Expecting a positive year for China, Shehzad walks through...

This week, as Mark takes some well deserved time off, we combine forces with Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast for a special edition of Forward Marginal Guidance. As Berkshire Hathaway released their 2023 shareholder letter, we invited Buffett expert Yun Li to the show to share her top takeaways from this years annual letter. We then take a deep dive into inflation, yields and the...

On today's episode of On the Margin, Cameron Dawson CIO at NewEdge Wealth joins the show for a discussion on the path ahead for the Fed, the outlook for earnings and a potential new regime for markets as certain inflation data begins reaccelerating. We also take a look at some of America's great recessions and discuss wether or not they provide good comparisons to 2023. To hear all this and more,...

This week, Mike & Mark begin by discussing the Coinbase Q4 earnings which saw an additional $30 million in revenue than analysts had expected. We break down the balance sheet and compare Coinbase's revenue when operating in bull & bear markets. We then move on to Coinbase's layer-2 announcement, Base. Could this signal a turning point amid crypto winter and how will this impact the crypto develope...

On today's episode of On the Margin, Vincent Deluard Director of Global Macro at StoneX joins the show for a discussion on the rise of secular inflation. Being early to the inflation call, Vincent walks through the dynamics that allowed him to spot the rise of inflation, and how it will impact the next decade and beyond. We then dive into the role of inflation during a fourth turning and how this...

This week, Mike & Mark discuss the outlook for inflation in 2023. On the back of a 6.4% YoY CPI, could inflation remain sticky, or will the year ahead be met with a sharp decline in inflation? As "animal spirits" persist in markets, despite the yield curve repricing higher, and the terminal rate along with it, why are markets so intent on fighting the Fed? To hear all this and more, you'll have to...

On today's episode of On the Margin, Warren Pies Founder of 3Fourteen Research joins the show to discuss wether the Fed will be able to achieve their soft landing. Focusing on the housing market, Warren describes how this is the key signal to watch for a hard vs soft landing in the U.S economy. Warren then walks through the Fed's quantitative tightening program and how this could effect markets in...

This week, Mike & Mark discuss the SEC crackdown on crypto as Kraken settles for a $30 million fine and agrees to stop it's staking operation. Mark states "first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win". As the pressure ramps up on U.S crypto companies, what will this mean for the future of the industry? -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod...

On today's episode of On the Margin, Peter Boockvar Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group and Editor of The Boock Report joins the show for a discussion on the path ahead for the U.S economy. As markets have rallied to start the year, Peter walks through the state of the U.S economy. With inflation having seemingly peaked, Powell seems confident that disinflation will be the path ah...

This week, Mike & Mark discuss the week of central bank rate hikes and press conferences. With the Fed, BoE & ECB continuing to raise interest rates, markets attempted to price in an eventual pause in rate hikes. With the S&P 500 up roughly 7% through January 2023, and the most speculative of names rallying the most, reminiscent of 2021, we walk through the liquidity cycle up trend and how the loo...

On today's episode of On the Margin, Jim Bianco Founder of Bianco Research LLC joins the show alongside Jack Farley Host of Forward Guidance for a discussion on Powell's press conference on Wednesday 1st February. Markets started the new year with a strong rally seeing gains of around 7% in the S&P 500. Many anticipated a hawkish press conference from Jerome Powell in a bid to tighten financial co...

This week, Mark and Mike discuss all things macro as they break down GDP and earning expectations. US GDP just came in above expectations at 2.9%. Is a soft landing possible, or is the economy holding on by a thread? Mark gives his convincing arguments for the latter. We also take a deep dive into the housing market, corporate earnings, overvalued tech stocks and why all eyes are on Japan. To hear...

On today's episode of On the Margin, Charles Edwards Founder of Capriole Investments joins the show to discuss Bitcoin's place in the current macro cycle. We start with the state of macro and then dive into what inflation, interest rates and the Fed's actions mean for Bitcoin. We hit on frameworks for valuing BTC, Bitcoin's monetary policy and what metrics investors should be watching. Finally, we...

This week, Mike & Mark are joined by James Davolos Portfolio manager at Horizon Kinetics for a debate on all things inflation. At the end of the day, will team transitory will be proven right into 2023? After hearing last weeks episode, James reached out to engage in a friendly debate with Mark as he has a slightly different view on the inflation dynamics into 2023. We then move on to the mounting...

On today's episode of On the Margin, Michel Kao joins the show for a discussion on the U.S Dollar and its role in the great power competition. Michael outlines his thesis for an upcoming paper on the U.S Dollar looking at the geopolitical significance of the Dollar and the four key economic pillars of which is stands upon. As many have called for the demise of the U.S Dollar, Michael sees the curr...

This week, Mark and Mike discuss all things macro as they break down this weeks CPI release. Taking a deep dive into all the elements of the CPI bucket, Mark expects inflation to continue falling throughout 2023. Will team transitory ultimately be proven right? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mark: https://twitte...

On today's episode of On the Margin, Will Clemente and Dylan LeClair join Mike to discuss Bitcoin's 2023 outlook. Bitcoin is a liquidity gauge, and the markets are drying up. We explore what we expect from macro, how the Fed will respond and what this means for crypto, bonds and currency markets. Will and Dylan then explain Bitcoin's correlation to macro, why Bitcoin has "failed" to be an inflatio...

This week, Mark is back for the first On The Margin weekly roundup of 2023! What better way to kick off the new year than with an outlook for the year ahead in markets. As 2022 was dominated by central banks tightening in an attempt to tame inflation, how will these dynamics play out in 2023, and how will they impact asset prices from stocks, bonds, commodities and crypto. To hear all this and mor...

On today's episode of On the Margin, we are joined by one of Blockworks' very own research analysts Matt Fiebach for a deep dive on their most recent report "2022 Year End Review: Network Coverage, Layer 1s & 2s". Matt walks us through the top stories of the year from the Ethereum merge, to the Layer 1 wars, and the various narratives the year saw in crypto markets. We then deep dive into the cont...

Jack Farley, host of Forward Guidance, welcomes George Goncalves and Joseph Wang to share their 2023 outlook on the Federal Reserve and inflation. Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities, argues that inflation is slowing rapidly and the Federal Reserve is nearly done with raising interest rates. Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, contends that 2023 will be th...