Independent Thinking

Nearly four years after Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukrainian officials and analysts look at the prospects for a ceasefire, and at the military, economic and human cost that President Vladimir Putin's campaign has inflicted on the country.  They discuss the Russian strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, intended to demoralise the civilian population, and what European allies should do to bo...

Zohran Mamdani's victory in New York's mayoral race this week – and other electoral successes – energized Democrats in the US and left-wing parties worldwide. The new standard-bearer of the American left is hailed by progressives as a generational shift of leadership – at 34 he will be the first Muslim mayor of New York, and one of its youngest ever.  But he faces opposition from many quarters ove...

Far-right Dutch leader Geert Wilders suffered a setback on Wednesday's elections, with centrists poised to take back power.   Rob Jetten, 38, leader of the centre-progressive Democrats 66 party, is set to become the Netherlands' youngest leader in modern history after running on the upbeat slogan 'Yes we can'. But the hard right remains influential.   To discuss the outcome, and what it tells us a...

China's ruling Communist Party leadership met in Beijing to frame the next five-year-plan. Amid a trade war with the United States, they set priorities for economic policy and technology, including how to build artificial intelligence into key sectors of society.   New faces appeared and old ones vanished, with a purge of senior military officials and others as President Xi Jinping sacked some off...

Beset by early ceasefire disputes between Israel and Hamas, international backers of President Trump's Mideast project must move quickly to elevate it from vague wish list to viable framework. Rapid delivery of aid, reconstruction - and security for Palestinians and Israelis – are essential. But without a political end game, it will founder. Sanam Vakil , Marc Weller and Stephen Farrell join host...

At home the US is mired in domestic dysfunction with a government shutdown now in its second week. But abroad, President Trump has brokered a deal that - although it didn't win a Nobel Peace Prize - could end the two-year Gaza war. Laurel Rapp and Max Yoeli join guest host Christopher Sabatini . They discuss the effects of the government funding crisis and protracted political deadlock on the US e...

It's party conference season in Britain. Both ruling Labour and opposition Conservatives are nervous about the rise of Nigel Farage's right-wing Reform UK, successor to the Brexit Party. Pollster Joe Twyman and Olivia O'Sullivan , Director of Chatham House's UK in the World Programme, join host Bronwen Maddox for this week's podcast. Read our latest: Explainer | Can the Trump peace plan for Gaza s...

The United Nations is a guardian of international law, its leader assured member states this week. But President Trump questioned the point of the UN. Marc Weller and Christopher Phillips join Bronwen Maddox to assess challenges to the global order in a world of strongmen and multipolarity. Read our latest: Event | Is this a new age of nuclear proliferation? Comment | Does the US want to weaken th...

President Donald Trump brought AI and tech CEOs on his second state visit for a deal pledging £31 billion in investment for the UK.  Olivia O'Sullivan and Laurel Rapp join host Bronwen Maddox to discuss the politics and dealmaking behind the pageantry, on Chatham House's weekly international affairs podcast. Read our latest: Event | Global Britain meets America First: What next for the 'special re...

Are we moving into a post-American world and if so will China try to lead and set the rules for it? In the face of American withdrawal, China senses an opportunity to shape a new world order. This week on Independent Thinking,  Samir Puri and James Kynge join Bronwen Maddox to discuss the changing nature of the international order. Read our latest: Event | Interview and discussion with Isaac Herzo...

How much of Donald Trump's sanctions strategy is substance — and how much is performance? In this episode of Independent Thinking, Chatham House experts unpack whether sanctions work. And at Trump's shifting use of sanctions, tariffs and personal power plays in global economic policy. With Dr Christopher Sabatini, Timothy Ash, and Christopher Vandome from Chatham House. Read our latest reports: Un...

What does President Donald Trump's promise of Patriot missiles for Ukraine — and a 50-day tariff ultimatum to Putin — really mean for Ukraine and Russia?  Chatham House experts Jaroslava Barbieri , John Lough and Samir Puri look at whether it is a significant pivot towards Ukraine, how both sides are faring in the war, and how U.S. credibility is affected by Trump's changing positions. They are jo...

What does Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to the White House mean for the likelihood of a Gaza ceasefire? Bronwen Maddox is joined by Stephen Farrell, Yossi Mekelberg, Sanam Vakil and Max Yoeli to examine the state of negotiations, U.S.-Israel and regional dynamics, and competing plans for what comes next. Read our latest: Lebanon's moment of truth The Rio summit showed that BRICS is less anti-Western...

After a crisis week for Britain's ruling Labour Party, host Bronwen Maddox and Chatham House's Olivia Sullivan are joined by economist Professor Stephen Millard and pollster Joe Twyman to look at the foreign and domestic challenges facing the country just one year after Keir Starmer won a landslide election victory. Read our latest: Is China friend or foe to the UK? A government audit says: 'It's...

Did US strikes cripple Iran's nuclear programme — or just set the stage for the next crisis? Bronwen Maddox hosts from Jordan, joined by international security expert Marion Messmer and Middle East associate fellow Lina Khatib in London, to examine the claims and counter-claims and what it means for the region's fragile balance of power. Read our latest: US strikes on Iran: What next for Iran, Isr...

Following Israel's strikes on Iran on 13 June, and the subsequent sequence of retaliation and counter retaliation, fears are rising that the conflict could escalate.   In this special episode of Independent Thinking (an edited version of a live webinar) Galip Dalay joins a panel of experts to discuss strategic goals, the responses of the key regional and international actors, including the Gulf st...

Is Britain chasing faded glory or forging a credible future? As the government lays out its latest spending review, Bronwen Maddox is joined by Jeremy Hunt and Samir Puri to ask whether bold talk of growth, defence and science hides a deeper strategic drift – or a real path back to global influence. Read our latest: Europe could win the battle for the future of digital money History suggests Trump...

Drones, AI, cyber warfare and nuclear weapons are a key part of the UK's new Strategic Defence Review, along with conventional weapons. Chatham House experts unpack the strategy, spending pledges and how Britain should adapt its military to deal with Putin, China, and Donald Trump. Bronwen Maddox is joined by Chatham House experts Grace Cassy , Marion Messmer and Olivia O'Sullivan to unpack the st...

As Gaza reels from staggering humanitarian devastation, Bronwen Maddox speaks with Yossi Mekelberg , Stephen Farrell , and Julie Norman to unpack the political drivers of Israel's war, the role of Donald Trump, and the region's competing visions for Gaza's future. From internal power struggles to shifting U.S. policy and Arab diplomatic proposals, this episode asks: what future is even possible fo...

Nine years after the Brexit vote, a new UK–EU deal promises smoother trade and deeper cooperation — but is it the end of the Brexit saga or just another chapter? Bronwen Maddox digs into what the deal really means with Rod Liddle and Nicolai von Ondarza , from political fallout to Britain's shifting role on the world stage. Read our latest: The dissolution of the PKK could transform Turkey's domes...

As trade tensions, security concerns, and diplomatic crossroads converge, the UK's bid for economic growth faces hard choices on the global stage. In this episode host Bronwen Maddox explores the UK's complex balancing act between the EU, US, and China with guests Janka Oertel and Sir Martin Donnelly . Read our latest: The UK–EU summit will bring some progress on defence cooperation. But more coul...

Tensions between India and Pakistan have surged following a deadly attack in Kashmir and air strikes by India inside Pakistan. With nuclear risks, regional diplomacy, and rising domestic pressures in play, what could prevent this crisis from spiralling further?  In this episode, Bronwen Maddox discusses what this means for South Asia and the world with Marion Messmer , a senior research fellow wit...

As Donald Trump floats a controversial peace deal that could leave Ukraine facing territorial losses and NATO exclusion, Kyiv is forced to weigh an impossible choice between sovereignty and survival.  Bronwen Maddox speaks with Orysia Lutsevych from Chatham House and Matthew Savill from RUSI about battlefield fatigue, shifting alliances, and the future of European security. Find out more: Trump's...

As the IMF Spring Meetings unfold in Washington DC, Bronwen Maddox asks whether we are witnessing the twilight of the US dollar's global dominance. Amid political shocks and shifting financial allegiances, could the world be inching towards a post-dollar era?  Bronwen is joined by Isabelle Mateos y Lago , chief economist at BNP Paribas, and David Lubin from Chatham House's Global Economy and Finan...

In this episode of Independent Thinking , we explore the root causes of corruption in Nigeria, its impact on everyday life, and potential solutions for change. Bronwen Maddox speaks with Leena Koni Hoffmann about her in-depth report on the issue, as well as insights from speakers at a Chatham House conference focused on Nigeria's ongoing fight against corruption. Read our work on Nigeria: Taking a...