HPK Provident Advisors: The Weekly Bull

Headlines say inflation cooled and the market should cheer. We look under the hood and find a messier story: a payroll beat with downward revisions, an unemployment rate that’s climbed for four straight months, wage growth easing toward pre‑pandemic levels, and a core inflation print flattered by shelter math and holiday discounts. When bonds barely react and equities fail to reclaim a tight price...

A 25 bp rate cut grabbed headlines, but the real story is what comes next: dissent inside the Fed, a new liquidity backstop for short‑term Treasuries, and a policy path that hinges on data rather than promises. We walk through what this means for markets already wrestling with softer hiring, stubborn small‑business pain, and an equity tape that’s favoring breadth over megacap hype. AI‑driven produ...

Markets moved fast, the calendar moved faster, and we squeezed a full week of money insights into a pre‑Thanksgiving live show. We opened with the whiplash from post‑shutdown data: retail sales underwhelmed, producer inflation cooled, confidence slumped, and jobless claims held up. From there we connected the dots to price action, noting the rebound above key moving averages and a 10‑year yield dr...

Markets don’t freeze because of bad news; they freeze when the news goes missing. We open with the data gap created by the government pause, why uncertainty drives more volatility than either good or bad headlines, and how to ground your plan in what actually moves earnings: energy, labor, utilities, and durable demand. From the AI hype cycle to index concentration in the S&P 500, we talk thro...

Markets love a plot twist, and this week delivered more than one. We opened with two straight red weeks for the S&P 500, a deeper NASDAQ slide, and AI capex jitters sparked by a notable debt deal. Then came a brief rally on government funding progress that flipped into selling—a classic buy the rumor, sell the news turn. Under the hood, breadth stayed weak even with indexes near highs, and buy...

Headlines are loud, but your plan should be louder. We introduce our new weekly series—Market Monday, Tax Tuesday, Wealth Building Wednesday, and Think Ahead Thursday—and then get straight into what’s moving portfolios right now: a prolonged government shutdown, delayed primary data, and a market that’s strong on earnings yet weak on breadth. We break down the latest signals with plain talk. Manuf...

Markets are inching toward highs while cash yields fade and the data pipeline clogs from a long government shutdown. We unpack how a 25 bp Fed cut, a divided committee, and cooler odds for multiple cuts next year ripple through stocks, bonds, and your cash strategy. Earnings remain a bright spot, but leadership is narrow and expectations for megacaps are unforgiving. We talk through the trade truc...

Markets don’t only rise; they breathe. We walk through why a near-term pullback looks likely, how that can reset valuations in a healthy way, and what we’re doing inside managed portfolios to cushion volatility and prepare to buy quality assets at better prices. Rather than trying to guess exact turning points, we explain our practical approach: raise some cash into strength, keep watchlists tight...

Markets hate a vacuum, and that’s exactly where we’ve been living as a prolonged government shutdown starves investors of fresh data. We open with a candid read on equity whipsaws, then follow the thread to the 10-year Treasury slipping through 4% and the ripple effects of regional bank loan write-downs. From there, we zoom out to the CBO’s updated forecast, the broken four-decade downtrend in yie...

What if the best financial plan isn’t the one with the highest return, but the one that gives you back the most time? We dig into a practical framework that strips away noise and helps you make faster, clearer decisions by matching every dollar to a job and every risk to a choice you make on purpose. We start with the reality that time and money are your scarcest resources, then map the core plann...

We unpack the government shutdown’s real market impact, why the data blackout complicates Fed decisions, and how to stay invested with a clear risk plan. David shares three decades of lessons on preparation, behavior, annuities, and building portfolios that can take a hit and keep paying. • shutdown context, health-care disputes, and negotiation gridlock • market history during shutdowns and why m...

The housing market sits at a fascinating crossroads, caught between memories of 2008 and dreams of COVID-era pricing. In this illuminating episode, we welcome Chaz Lawrence, a realtor and property manager from St. Augustine, who brings invaluable ground-level insights into today's real estate landscape. Chaz paints a vivid picture of the current market disconnect: "Buyers think we'r...

Discover the hidden secrets to maximizing your Social Security benefits in this eye-opening episode featuring Brian Peluso, a partner at HBK Provenance Advisors and Social Security expert with over 15 years of experience navigating this complex system. Did you know your Social Security benefits could amount to over $1 million during your retirement? Despite widespread fears that the system is disa...

The markets celebrated with all-time highs following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points—their first reduction in this cycle. This pivotal monetary policy shift came with nearly unanimous FOMC support, though one member advocated for a more aggressive 50-point cut and projected five additional cuts this year. Chair Powell emphasized the interesting dynamics...

Every Week the partners of HPK get together to dicuss what's moving markets and investment strategies.  This week we discuss markets stalling out, weak housing data, a  mixed labor market, and a Fed that is leaning toward weaker employment data.  Hit subscribe to make sure you don't miss a thing. 

The markets stand at a critical juncture following Powell's Jackson Hole comments that signaled potential labor market weakness – a key factor that could trigger the September rate cut investors have been anticipating. While the S&P 500 hasn't yet surpassed mid-August highs, technical indicators reveal a concerning negative RSI divergence suggesting momentum isn't keeping pace w...

Welcome to an introductory look into all things estate planning, a necessity for absolutely everyone, contrary to popular belief. We're about to uncover the realities of planning for the future and debunk some common myths. We'll guide you through the process step by step, highlighting the importance of an estate plan, and use examples from the nursing community to spotlight the challeng...

Wondering how to navigate the challenging road of financial planning? Colin and Brian are here to guide you. Inspired by the nursing profession, we have developed a unique financial planning process which begins by assessing your needs. With reflective questions, we encourage you to think about your goals, and together we construct a foundation for your financial plan that addresses your unique ne...

Ever wonder how nursing and financial planning are intertwined? Trust us, the connection is far from superficial. As we kick off the first episode of Nursing Your Nest Egg, we dive into the genesis of our mission to provide holistic financial care for nurses. It's been an enlightening journey for us, discovering an unmet need for financial planning specifically tailored to the nursing communi...

Are you ready to crack the code on retirement savings? We're here to offer a simplified, no-nonsense guide on how to navigate the maze of retirement accounts in our latest podcast episode. We'll let you in on the best strategies to maximize your savings using 401k plans, IRAs, Roth IRAs, SEPs, SIMPLE, and more. You'll also discover how to utilize the government's life expectanc...

Ever wondered how to navigate the minefield of financial advisory services? You're not alone. Join Colin Harper and me as we peel back the layers of working with a financial professional, breaking down the expectations, hesitations, and responsibilities involved in such an important relationship. We also bust open the vault on the essential fiduciary responsibility and confidentiality standar...

What if money, instead of being a source of stress, could actually serve as a safety net? We're here to reassure you, it absolutely can. We kick off by examining a Bankrate.com study, revealing that over half of US adults find finances negatively affect their mental health. We're especially keen on discussing the importance of an emergency fund - your own personal safety net - not only f...