Hold Your Fire!

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia Director, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, to discuss Donald Trump’s ceasefire proposal for Ukraine. They unpack what is known about the U.S. proposal and its potential implications, including the prospects of U.S. recognition of Russia’s claim to the Crimean Peninsula and Kyiv agreein...

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert Richard Horsey about the devastating earthquake that struck Myanmar last week, challenges facing relief efforts and implications for the country’s civil war and its military leaders. In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert Richard Horsey to discuss the aftermath of the ea...

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Daniel Akech and Alan Boswell about escalating violence across South Sudan, President Salva Kiir’s dismissal of both loyalists and opposition leaders, the impact of neighbouring Sudan’s conflict and hope of averting a return to civil war in the world’s youngest country. In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Max Rodenbeck, Mairav Zonszein, Amjad Iraqi and Michael Wahid Hanna to discuss the breakdown of the Gaza ceasefire, the likely effect on Palestinians in Gaza and the goals of both Israel’s renewed military campaign and the U.S. strikes on the Houthis in Yemen. Richard first talks to Max, Mairav and Amjad about Israel’s...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard Atwood is joined by Gérard Araud, Crisis Group Trustee and former French ambassador to the U.S., the UN and Israel. They take stock of U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy so far, his administration’s seemingly competing visions for European security and how European capitals are reacting. They talk about diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukr...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group experts Berkay Mandıracı, Lahib Higel and Dareen Khalifa to discuss the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)’s announcement of a ceasefire with Türkiye following imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan’s call for the group to disarm and dissolve. They discuss the motivations behind the Turkish initiative to end the 40-year confl...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell, to discuss the Sudanese army’s military advances against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Khartoum and other parts of Sudan amid a devastating humanitarian crisis. They assess what explains the shifting battlefield momentum and why...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard Atwood is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe/Central Asia director, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, to talk about talks between U.S. and Russia over the Ukraine war and the growing rift in transatlantic relations. They unpack Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's remarks at NATO, apparently ruling out Ukraine’s return to its pre-2014 borders o...

In this episode of  Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director and Senior Adviser to the President, to talk about U.S. President Donald Trump’s Iran policy. They discuss Trump’s return to his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran even as he signals willingness for dealmaking with Tehran. They examine how Iran’s leadership views the Trump administration and wheth...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Amjad Iraqi, Michael Hanna and Rob Blecher to talk about Donald Trump’s shock proposal for Gaza and its implications for the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Richard first speaks with Mairav, Amjad and Rob about Trump’s plan, which would include relocating Palestinians out of Gaza and...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Great Lakes Director Richard Moncrieff to discuss the fall of Goma, the capital of DR Congo’s North Kivu province, to the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group and its implications for Kinshasa and the broader region. They unpack the rapid collapse of Congolese forces in Goma, the role of Rwandan troops in the offensive, and...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Dareen Khalifa and Nanar Hawach to discuss what’s ahead for Syria after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. They unpack the offensive led by Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other rebels, the rapid disintegration of regime forces and Syrians’ hopes after more than a decade of war. They look at the challenges Syria’...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga to discuss the implications of a second Trump administration for Africa. They examine how African leaders have reacted to Donald Trump’s election victory and why some might favour a more transactional Washington. They assess the Biden administration’s legacy in Africa, the shifts a second Trump...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Kyung-wha Kang, former South Korean Foreign Minister, CEO of Asia Society and Crisis Group trustee, to discuss North Korea and Russia’s strategic partnership, potential change Donald Trump might bring to U.S.-South Korea relations and what they mean for the Korean peninsula. They talk about North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia’s Kur...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Olga Oliker, Michael Wahid Hanna, Renata Segura, Ali Wyne and Amanda Hsiao to talk about Donald Trump's return to the White House and what it means for the world, whether the wars in Europe and the Middle East or crises and flashpoints elsewhere. He first talks with Olga about Trump’s pledge to end the Ukraine war. Does t...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Central Africa project director, Enrica Picco, to talk about Chad, the Central African Republic and Cameroon. They discuss Chadian President Mahamat Déby’s consolidation of power since the death of his fatherIdriss in 2021, his approach to dealing with the fallout from Sudan’s war and his outreach to new security partners alo...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Tahani Mustafa and Rob Blecher to discuss Israel’s intensified military operations in northern Gaza, the implications of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s death and what is left of Gaza a year into the war Israel launched in response to Hamas’ 7 October attacks. They talk about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, particularly in...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia director Olga Oliker and senior Ukraine analyst Lucian Kim to discuss the latest developments in the Ukraine war. They talk about President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent visit to the U.S., what we know about his proposed “victory plan” and his efforts to ensure support from both sides of the aisle in...

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard speaks to Crisis Group colleagues Christina Boutros, David Wood, Ali Vaez and Mairav Zonszein about Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon, Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel, how Israel might respond and whether the Biden administration can avert an all-out confrontation that would draw the U.S. in. Richard first discusses with David and Christina Israel...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Heiko Wimmen and Michael Hanna about the intensified Israeli strikes on Hizbollah militants in Lebanon and whether both sides can still step back from the brink of all-out war. They unpack calculations on both sides, why Israel has ramped up attacks recently and why Hizbollah hasn’t yet responded more fo...

In the first episode of Hold Your Fire ’s new season, Richard Atwood is joined by Richard Gowan, Crisis Group’s UN director, to speak about the UN General Assembly high-level week and the UN’s global role. They look at how the UN has responded to the Gaza war and conflict’s impact on politics and debates at the UN. They talk about the UN’s efforts in other conflicts, including Ukraine, Sudan and H...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Israel expert Mairav Zonszein, Israel-Palestine director Rami Dajani and U.S. program director Michael Hanna to talk about the latest from Gaza, prospects for a ceasefire and the risks of all-out war between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. They discuss how the violence in Gaza has evolved and the recent Israeli...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s South Asia project director Samina Ahmed to talk about the fallout from the February elections in Pakistan, the deteriorating security in Pakistan’s border regions and Islamabad's relations with Pakistan’s neighbours. They unpack what’s behind the enduring popularity of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his party, the Paki...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Finnish President and former Crisis Group trustee Alexander Stubb to talk about next week’s NATO summit, European security and the war in Ukraine. They assess Finland’s role as one of NATO’s newest members, Europe’s defence spending and preparedness and the future of the alliance as Washington’s attention shifts to the Asia Pacific. They ta...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s senior Yemen analyst Ahmed Nagi to talk about the uptick in attacks by Houthi rebels on cargo ships in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean and the prospects for an escalation of the conflict both in Yemen and the broader region. They unpack what the Houthis are trying to achieve with the attacks, which the group ha...