Hold Your Fire!

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa Director Alan Boswell about Sudan’s war and the foreign powers fueling it. They revisit the atrocities committed during the Rapid Support Forces’ (RSF) takeover of El Fasher a year ago and the failure by outside actors to prevent them. They discuss shifting front lines, how e...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group Ukraine expert Lucian Kim, chief of policy Stephen Pomper and Europe director Fabienne Hara to unpack the latest public rift between Washington and Kyiv and what could come next. They examine U.S. President Donald Trump’s diesel deal with Moscow, his renewed criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and how domestic po...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Arabian Peninsula director Yasmine Farouk and senior Iran analyst Hamidreza Azizi to discuss the Houthis’ renewed offensive in Yemen and escalating attacks on Saudi Arabia. They examine Houthi strikes on Saudi targets, including a deadly attack on Riyadh’s airport and the group’s advances in Yemen. They discuss the largely de...

This week on Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Alan Boswell, Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director, to discuss the fighting in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region and the risk of an all-out war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. They examine federal forces’ recapture of Tigray’s capital Mekelle and what has changed since the previous war. They explore Eritrea’s calculations in backing its former en...

This week on Hold Your Fire! , Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga about renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia. They examine why the Pretoria agreement, which ended the devastating 2020–2022 war between Tigrayan rebels and the federal government, failed to deliver lasting peace. They assess the fragile new alliance of Tigrayan, Amhara and other rebel groups, Eritrea’s...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Richard Gowan, Crisis Group’s Director for Global Issues and Institutions, and Daniel Forti, Head of UN affairs, ahead of next week’s UN General Assembly high-level week. They explore the mood at the UN, its shifting relations with Washington and its shrinking role in peacemaking worldwide, particularly in the Middle East. They assess...

In this special episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s senior Yemen analyst Ahmed Nagi to unpack the rapid Houthi advance along Yemen’s Red Sea coast near the Bab al-Mandab Strait and its implications for regional security and global shipping. They discuss how the 2022 truce between the Houthis, Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s internationally recognised government unravelled, th...

In this first episode of a new season of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s European Security Director Olga Oliker about the role of nuclear weapons in Europe. They examine how Russia’s nuclear threats have constrained but failed to halt Western support for Ukraine, why Trump’s questioning of NATO commitments has weakened European confidence in U.S. nuclear protection, and why Rus...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Middle East director Rob Malley about the state of U.S.-Iran negotiations and how the aftermath of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran could change the region. They discuss why talks remain fraught, how control over the Strait of Hormuz has become central to Iran’s demands, how negotiators might tackle Iran’s nuclear program and how...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Renata Segura and Elizabeth Dickinson about Colombia’s presidential election, in which right-wing outsider Abelardo “El Tigre” de la Espriella won by a razor-thin margin. They unpack a bitter campaign and what the result reveals about a country still deeply divided. They assess outgoing President Gustavo Petro’s legacy an...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Ibraheem Bahiss, Crisis Group’s Afghanistan expert based in Kabul, to assess where the country stands nearly five years after the Taliban’s return to power. They discuss the improved security across much of Afghanistan, even as many remain uncertain about the durability of Taliban rule. They examine the Taliban’s sweeping restrictions on wo...

In this special episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Ali Vaez, Crisis Group’s Iran director, to unpack the memorandum of understanding reached between the U.S. and Iran on Sunday to shore up a fragile ceasefire and open the way for further talks. They discuss what is known about the agreement and its provisions on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending hostilities, including in Leb...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Naysan Rafati, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein and Michael Hanna about the shaky U.S.-Iran ceasefire and the state of negotiations between the two countries. Richard first speaks with Naysan about continued U.S.-Iran tit-for-tat exchanges, talks over a possible deal, what an initial agreement might entail and whether the...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s India expert Praveen Donthi about escalating ethnic violence in Manipur and militancy in India-administered Kashmir. They first discuss Manipur, where fighting between the Kuki-Zo and Meitei communities has recently drawn in Naga groups, tracing the roots of the conflict, links to older insurgencies and why New Delhi’s neglect...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ali Wyne, Crisis Group’s Senior Research and Advocacy Adviser for U.S.-China and Senior Northeast Asia Analyst William Yang, to discuss U.S. President Donald Trump’s summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. They assess the summit’s broader significance, including what it reveals about Trump’s second-term China policy and the shif...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s European Security director, to discuss the latest developments in Ukraine, more than four years into full-scale war with Russia. They talk about the mood in Kyiv, recent battlefield dynamics and how Ukraine’s military continues to adapt as the war grinds on. They discuss the fallout from the war in the Gulf, incl...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s deputy Sahel director Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim to discuss a major wave of coordinated attacks by the al-Qaeda affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Tuareg rebels across Mali. They examine how the offensive unfolded, including the killing of Mali’s defence minister and the fall of the strategic northern city...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Iraq, Lebanon and Syria director Heiko Wimmen about the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire and what might come next. They discuss the damage caused by the latest round of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, with thousands dead and over a million people displaced, mostly from Shia-majority areas in the south, and the situation in Leba...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Michael Hanna and Stephen Pomper to discuss the announced ceasefire between Iran, Israel and the U.S. and what might follow. Richard first asks Ali why Iran agreed to a ceasefire, decision-making in Tehran and Iran’s approach to the Islamabad talks. He then speaks with Yasmine...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell to discuss where Sudan’s war stands as it approaches its fourth year. They examine shifts along the front lines as Sudan’s de facto partition under the two main warring parties, the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces, is becoming increasingly en...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Stephen Pomper and Michael Wahid Hanna to talk about where the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran stands, one month in. Richard first speaks with Ali about reported backchannel talks between Washington and Tehran, the two sides’ largely incompatible demands for ending the war, changes i...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard Atwood speaks with Crisis Group’s Latin America director, Renata Segura and senior policy director, Ivan Briscoe, about what the Trump administration is trying to achieve in Cuba and recent developments in Venezuela. They discuss Washington’s pressure campaign on Cuba, the effects of the U.S. oil blockade, popular frustration on the island and the inner...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Lebanon expert David Wood and former Crisis Group President Rob Malley. Richard first talks with David about the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, why Hezbollah decided to launch attacks after the U.S.-Israel war on Iran began, Israel’s war aims in Lebanon and prospects for a ceasefire. Richard then turns to Ro...

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein and Michael Wahid Hanna to talk about how the U.S.-Israel war with Iran is unfolding and what might be next. Richard first speaks with Ali about what is happening inside Iran amid internet blackouts and heavy bombardment, debates around Iran’s leadership and Ali Khamenei’s succe...

In this special episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran director Ali Vaez and Gulf and Arabian Peninsula director Yasmin Farouk to discuss the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, the regional fallout, and what could come next. Richard first speaks with Ali about the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and what it means for Tehran’s leadership and decision...