Global Thinking

Financial technology, or Fintech, in Canada has traditionally trailed behind the U.S. by nearly a decade. Until recently, even basic processes like virtual onboarding were rare in Canada, where advisors and clients often dealt with stacks of paper for signatures and mailed-off documents. But a global pandemic has accelerated change, bringing digital solutions and smartphone-driven client experienc...

Over the past year, China has grappled with escalating challenges—from a real estate meltdown to tech crackdowns and slowing growth—leading many investors to deem the country "un-investable." However, recent policy moves from Beijing, including significant interest rate cuts and liquidity injections, may point to a major inflection point ahead.   In this episode, Rob Duncan speaks with Forstrong's...

Investors have been pouring into Canadian ETFs at an unprecedented rate in 2024. While cash and US equity ETFs have dominated flows this year, recent trends suggest a shift is underway. Weaker economic data and volatility in Japan have investors worried, while international markets present compelling opportunities.   In the latest Global Thinking episode, Rob sits down with Daniel Straus, Director...

When asked about the prognosis for markets, American financier J. P. Morgan once famously quipped, "they will fluctuate".   That statement is not meant to be dismissive of recent market volatility: the first half of 2024 has faced a long list of new realities from an AI fervour to contentious global elections. But, today more than ever, wealth accumulation demands a focus on fundamentals and looki...

Everyone is talking about Nvidia. Just 2 years ago the stock was worth a mere $400 billion. Now, depending on the time of day, it is worth somewhere around $3 trillion and was briefly the most valuable company in the world. Investors should not overcomplicate things here: Nvidia and the broader AI theme are in the midst of a speculative mania.   Of course, we have been here before. Investment stor...

Canadian ETF inflows continued at a brisk pace in May, bringing the year-to-date number to more than $24 billion (handily beating their mutual fund counterparts). Total assets now stand at more than $432 billion with 1407 ETFs to choose from. With all this selection, how do investors know which ETF to buy?   To help answer these questions Rob Duncan, Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager & Lead...

Looking back on the month of April, it was a tough time for many investors. Broadly, many stock market sectors broke their winning streak. Bonds didn't fare any better as continued strong global economic data pressured long-term yields higher.   As the macro regime continues to unfold, Forstrong's investment team continues to believe the world is transitioning toward an inflationary boom. Increase...

US equities have taken center stage over the last few years and are touching all-time highs as consumers continue to show strength with healthy balance sheets and less sensitivity to higher interest rates. But is all this good news already priced in?   What may be surprising is that returns are no longer being powered primarily by the "Magnificent 7". Instead, forgotten and unloved sectors are now...

Interest Rate Obsession: Are Markets Missing the Bigger Picture?   Markets have found a new obsession to dote upon: timing central bank rate cutes. Everywhere you look, interest rate expectations continue to dominate headlines and market narratives. Imminent recession fears have been replaced with questions on the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts, but interest rates are only part of the...

In this episode Rob sits down with Michael Greenberg, Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, to ask questions about their market outlook and where they see opportunity in the year ahead. Throughout the podcast Mike shares his perspectives on inflation, expectations for interest rate cuts, concentration in US equity's "AI enablers" and Bitcoin's impa...

One year ago, market forecasters were in absolute agreement. A Bloomberg consensus survey showed that 100% of the respondents predicted a global recession in 2023.  Rising interest rates would surely create an inevitable "hard landing". When such agreement exists in the investment world one must ask the obvious question, "What don't we already know?".     Since then, fears over hard landings have...

On this episode Rob sits down with our good friend Rodrigo Gordillo from Resolve Asset Management. Rodrigo has a fascinating background and shares how hyperinflation in 1980s Peru shaped his life and investment philosophy. He also discusses why emerging markets have been more proactive in combating inflation over the last few years, and why inflation volatility will be higher this decade than the...

Welcome back to all our listeners. This is now Season 4 of the Forstrong Global Thinking podcast and there is no shortage of topics to dive into. In this episode Rob sits down with Tyler Mordy, CEO and CIO, to discuss which macro trends are shaping the investment landscape.  Looking back, last year was one of heightened risk aversion: some $1.3 trillion dollars ran into global money market funds....

The US bond selloff over the last few years is on par with the largest ever in history. In this podcast Rob sits down with Forstrong Lead PM, David Kletz, to discuss market performance and what "higher for longer" interest rates means for investors. While this new environment has dampened confidence and has everyone running into the perceived safety of cash, the reality is that cash rarely outperf...

In part 1, Rob Duncan sat down with Reza Samahin, Portfolio Manager at KJ Harrison, to discuss the big ideas behind Artificial Intelligence and what impact it may have on the future In part 2, Rob and Reza discuss the implications of AI from an investment perspective. Is this Dot Com 2.0? Will investors benefit from an unfolding capex cycle driven by AI? Are valuations on AI-related stocks justifi...

Last month 2,600 tech industry professionals signed a petition led by Elon Musk and Apple co-founder, Steve Wozniak, to halt AI development until there was a clear understanding of its full implications. Although he did not sign the letter, Geoffrey Hinton, the so-called "Godfather of AI", resigned from Google to warn the world stating, "AI could be a greater threat to humankind than climate chang...

It has been four long years since Forstrong last visited mainland China. In that time, the country faced a real estate collapse, technology crackdowns and more than 1100 days of brutal lockdowns. Given the size and scale of China's influence on the global economy, their reopening is something that smart investors need to monitor.   After a month on the mainland Shibo Gu, Forstrong's Research Analy...

Coming off a surprisingly resilient Q1, Global Equities staged a rally for a second quarter despite the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and renewed fears of another 2008 financial crisis. While US markets staged a late rally to pull ahead of Canada, International markets continue to be global leaders. In this episode of Global Thinking, Rob sits down with Forstrong's Lead PM, David Kletz, to hear...

Cette semaine, nous avons un invité très spécial pour notre podcast "Global Thinking". Omar Rayes de Forstrong s'assoit une deuxième fois avec l'Honorable Clément Gignac.   Clément a eu une longue et brillante carrière dans les secteurs public et privé. Sur la scène internationale, il a présidé en 2012 le Conseil de l'agenda mondial sur la compétitivité (division du Forum économique mondial). Il e...

This week we have a very special guest for our "Global Thinking" Podcast. Forstrong's Omar Rayes sits down for a second time with the honorable Clément Gignac.   Clément has had a long and distinguished career in both the public and private sectors. On the international scene, he chaired in 2012 the Global agenda council on competitiveness (a division of the World Economic Forum). He is also an as...

Silicon Valley's scrappy attitude of "move fast and break things" not only became standard start-up advice over the last decade, but quickly evolved into a global movement for the technology sector.  Yet, a rich irony has emerged. It turns out that customers can also move fast and break things. Last Thursday, depositors at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) pulled $42 billion and, in a matter of hours on F...

It has been a long string of surprises over the last year. The Fed was surprised inflation wasn't transitory. Investors were surprised to see the fastest rate hikes since the 1980s. Economists are now surprised we aren't in a recession.   Yet, in our view, the biggest surprise continues to be the resilience of the global economy – despite higher interest rates, economic growth has continued to chu...

As it was in 2022, financial markets had their own Kafkaesque backdrop. Investors did not need to stretch their imaginations: reality did it for them. Supposedly rare events appeared more frequently than ever. All of this has forged an easy fraternity for those predicting more macro doom. Global pessimism is now higher than ever. Understandably, the pull of this narrative is powerful. Because the...

It is now abundantly clear that last year was a hinge moment in history. The world of tomorrow will resemble nothing of what we see today. "All life is a process of breaking down, but the blows that do the dramatic side of the work…don't show their effect all at once." Great American author F. Scott Fitzgerald once wrote in an essay for Esquire. The writer was referring to his personal challenges...

In this summer edition of the Global Thinking Podcast, Rob Duncan sits down with Forstrong's CEO and CIO, Tyler Mordy, to discuss the most topical macro issues moving markets today.  -Is the global economy in a recession or headed for one -Has inflation peaked or will it be more persistent -Why every bear market leads to a change in leadership -What are the investment implications To read more or...