Global Security Briefing

As Recep Tayyip Erdoğan emerges as the winner of Turkey's presidential elections, we examine what this means for the country, the region and the world. Erdoğan's victory hardly came as a surprise. He had almost won in the first round, gaining 49.51% of the vote compared to 44.8% for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the 74-year-old retired civil servant leading the Republican People's Party in alliance with oth...

As the contours of a new Saudi Arabia emerge under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, we analyse domestic and foreign policy reforms in a changing Kingdom. Saudi Arabia is arguably the most powerful Arab country, and one of the key regional powers in the Middle East today. But Saudi Arabia's importance goes far beyond the region. Its territory includes the two holiest sites in Islam – Mecca and Med...

As geopolitical competition intensifies, we look at the future trajectory of the UK–Africa relationship. For over two decades, international conversations about Africa were dominated by Western aid and preoccupations with the Global War on Terrorism. But recently, with great and middle powers visibly competing for influence across Africa, a new layer of complexity has been added to relations. For...

In early April, Finland became the newest member of NATO, significantly changing the Alliance's northern flank, as well as deeply impacting Nordic and Baltic security in the face of the war in Ukraine. The war has rapidly altered Finnish security policy. Almost immediately after the invasion, public support for NATO membership leaped from a steady 25% in favour to around 75%. On 18 May 2022, Finla...

Originally published 6 April 2023. After over two years, the Bridging the Oceans podcast is coming to an end. Bridging the Oceans, hosted by Veerle Nouwens, was the first podcast dedicated specifically to the defence and security of the Indo-Pacific. It explored what the Indo-Pacific is, where its limits lay, and what the fast-evolving defence and security issues were in this dynamic part of the w...

Launched against the backdrop of a deteriorating security environment in the Indo-Pacific, will AUKUS prove an effective counterbalance to Chinese dominance in the region? AUKUS, the tripartite deal between the US, the UK and Australia, caused considerable surprise and French consternation when it was announced in 2021. It involves acquiring a new fleet of nuclear-powered submarines for Australia,...

This episode focuses on how global energy trends have shaped the geopolitics of the MENA for much of the past century, and how they will continue to do so. For over two decades, the region seemed to be losing a lot of its energy importance for the West. Both the US and European countries have sought to reduce their involvement in MENA geopolitics, declaring instead their intention to focus on the...

Originally published 15 March 2023. The recent annual meetings of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and the National People's Congress (NPC) - the 'Two Sessions' - have already confirmed the national budget, high-level personnel appointments, and noted China's foreign and security outlook. Newly appointed Foreign Minister Qin Gang used tough language when discussing the US, wh...

Following the announcement of the 'Windsor Framework' between the UK and Brussels over Northern Ireland's trading arrangements - ending the most bitter Brexit dispute - there is a palpable sense that the UK may have turned a corner in its relations with the EU. With the UK taking a leading role in support of Ukraine and in more broadly countering Russia , the country also seems to have to have rea...

As we approach the one-year mark of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Global Security Briefing looks at the effects of the war, the potential risks for escalation, and what to expect in the future. A year after Russia's full-scale invasion began, the Ukrainian armed forces and population, with strong backing from a coalition of allies, have managed to blunt the attack. Russia has, however, begun to re...

Originally published 15 February 2022.  The current year is set to be a significant one for India, as it takes on both the G20 and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) presidencies – two landmark moments for the Modi government ahead of the highly anticipated general elections next year. Host Veerle Nouwens sits down with Garima Mohan, Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United Sta...

With growing uncertainty about the regional power balance in Nagorno-Karabakh, we analyse the concerns that another conflict could erupt. For nearly 30 years, the confrontation over landlocked Nagorno-Karabakh persisted through numerous rounds of negotiations and a massive regional arms build-up between Azerbaijan and Armenia. In 2020, Azerbaijan launched an offensive using its modernised armed fo...

After decades of peace, the Antarctic is emerging as a zone for future geopolitical competition. While recent years have seen a growing international focus on the Arctic, the Earth's southernmost region – governed by the 1959 Antarctic Treaty – has appeared divorced from wider polar tensions. However, in the last decade, China has expanded its presence and, along with Russia, has emerged as a disr...

To welcome in the new year, the International Security Studies team at RUSI reviews the biggest stories from 2022 and what to look out for in 2023. In the second instalment of the two-part seasonal special, host Neil Melvin is joined by Tobias Borck, Carlos Solar and Simon Rynn to discuss key developments in the Middle East, Latin America and Africa. What are the key threats to look out for in the...

As the year comes to a close, the International Security Studies team at RUSI reviews the biggest stories from 2022 and what to look out for in 2023. 2022 has been a watershed year in the security sphere, from the war in Ukraine to major developments in the Indo-Pacific. This two-part seasonal special brings together the regional experts from RUSI's International Security team. Host Neil Melvin is...

Originally published 21 December 2022.  Tough times lie ahead for Beijing, with a turbulent external environment now matched with domestic unrest. To round out 2022, Veerle and Dr Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Associate Professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs, UT Austin, reflect on a turbulent year for China policy. From a downward spiral in Sino-US relations and tensions over Taiwan, to the war...

As NATO prepares to welcome Sweden as a member, we examine what Stockholm's security agenda could look like in the years ahead. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden quickly announced its intention to seek NATO membership. This move marked a significant departure from the country's previous military non-alignment. With a new right wing-led government in place, and the country awaiting Tur...

As the conflict enters the harshest months of the year, wen discuss what the winter could mean for both sides. The Russian invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves around the world and has dominated the headlines ever since. Russia has focused heavily on seizing territory, and even formally annexed some regions in September. Moscow's narratives of success have, however, been severely undercut by Ukrain...

As the final electoral results trickle in, we discusses what the midterm elections can tell us about the future of US domestic and foreign policies. Neil Melvin sits down with Max Bergmann, Director of the Europe Program at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC. With an anticipated strong Republican win heralding the prospect of Donald Trump's return to the Wh...

Originally published 9 November 2022. Six months in, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol still treads a careful balance on some policy matters. Veerle speaks with Ms Saeme Kim, Korea Foundation Visiting Fellow in RUSI's Indo-Pacific Programme from 2021–2022. Saeme explores the policy continuities and changes in the Republic of Korea (ROK) from former President Moon Jae-in to current President Yoo...

As the world watches, protests continue to rage across Iran. With protests continuing across the country, Dr Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, Senior Research Fellow, RUSI International Security Studies, to consider Iran's future as it faces a changing regional and global security. They assess whether the protests can be a catalyst for domestic reform, and how these internal deve...

Originally published 26 October 2022. Does the recent Congress indicate triumph or challenges ahead for China? Veerle Nouwens speaks with two guests on China's 20th Party Congress, in which Xi Jinping attained an unprecedented third term in office and brought in a set of personnel changes in Party governance. Raffaello Pantucci, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow, explores how Xi's speech and the Party...

More than thirty years since independence, we look at how the nations of Central Asia are navigating shifting regional power dynamics and an evolving international security environment. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the nations of Central Asia - Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan – quickly transformed into authoritarian orders, while external inv...

We discuss the future trajectory of the region in the context of the war in Ukraine, the coronavirus pandemic, and new leadership across the continent. The global geopolitical architecture is shifting rapidly in the face of major events such as the war in Ukraine and the coronavirus pandemic. Latin America is having to contend with these changes, as well as regional challenges of transnational org...

Originally published 28 September 2022.  As strategic and economic interest in the region grows, how can states around the Indian Ocean and their partners mitigate the risk of conflict? Jeffrey Payne of the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies in Washington joins Veerle and Aaditya to discuss growing competition in the Indian Ocean region. Why has interest in the region among nuclear...