Geopolitics with Frank McKenna

Who says the summer is boring?  In Episode 54, Frank admits there is not enough time in the day to keep up with the current geopolitical landscape.  After a brief history of Frank's storied career, this month's discussion moves quickly to President Biden's decision to not seek re-election, the rise of Kamala Harris and her candidates for running mate and then pivots to Trump, Trump 2.0 (JD Vance),...

Episode 53 is all about elections.  Frank first covers the upcoming twin bill of elections on the other side of the Atlantic starring the French and English. The former coming as quite a surprise to the market, and the latter appearing to be a foregone conclusion, with the only item left to decide being the future of the UK Conservative Party which is expected to be obliterated at the polls on Jul...

Episode 52 takes us on a journey across several continents and covers a wide spectrum of topics. After remembering the legacy of his good friend and New Brunswick business icon Arthur Irving, who passed away recently, Frank covers the Sunak government's decision to call an early election in the U.K. and the trend toward authoritarian governments around the world, calling it a cyclical rather than...

n Episode 51, we circle back to Canada and focus on some of the key issues impacting our beautiful country.  After a quick discussion on the apparent de-escalation of hostilities between Iran and Israel, which Frank is hopeful is permanent, we spend most of the podcast on budget related matters.  Frank discusses the government's calculus in choosing to increase inclusion rates on capital gains ove...

In Episode 50, Frank invite's our colleague Chris Krueger to the podcast to help our listeners navigate the next 8 months until the November US Election.  We cover a lot of ground in 45 minutes, including the importance of foreign policy on the US Election, Democratic pressure on Israeli leader Netanyahu to mitigate civilian casualties, how Biden can change the narrative on the US Economy, the Oct...

In this episode, Frank discusses the very active calendar of events in the War in Ukraine, Trump's wins and losses in the primaries and the courts respectively, along with recent developments in China as relations with the US continue to thaw.  Frank also provides a history lesson on how close Canada came to owning the Turks and Caicos Islands and covers off some of the good news stories in global...

Back by popular demand, in Episode 48 Frank returns to the predictions game on 10 geopolitical topics important in Canada, the US and around the world in 2024.  Topics covered in this predictions episode cover a wide ranging set of issues including: the likelihood that Prime Minister Trudeau continues to lead the Liberal Party, immigration issues in Canada and at the southern border the United Sta...

In our last episode before the calendar turns to 2024, the conversation begins in Israel where Prime Minister Netanyahu struggles to maintain support for his war against Hamas. Next, we shift to Russia, where President Putin warned his neighbor Finland, a recently minted NATO member, that he will be assigning military to the Russia-Finland border area despite acknowledging he has no territorial ri...

Episode 46 covers a lot of geography. We start with a review of recent victories by right wing leaders in Argentina and Netherlands, which Frank believes is part of the natural pendulum swinging opposite incumbent center-left leadership amplified by Trump-related populist rhetoric. We spend a lot of time in Canada, first discussing Canada's position on the wrong side of NATO's defense spending tar...

Episode 45 comes at you straight from TD's 24th Annual Portfolio Management and Market Structure Conference, held November 2nd.  Frank is joined on stage by Chris Krueger of TD Cowen's Washington Research Group for a panel discussion entitled The Washington Circus. Before Chris and Frank dig in on Washington, they first discuss the emerging threat of a broadening unrest in the Middle East, which F...

Frank McKenna, a proud Canadian, shows his true passion for Canada in Episode 44 first defending Canada in its diplomatic dispute with India over the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian Member of the Sikh diaspora in Surrey, BC, then arguing against Alberta's potential separation from CPP and finally championing the partnership between The Federal Government and Indigenous communities for...

Episode 43 is entitled "More of the Same" because Frank returns to common threads from previous episodes namely Trudeau, climate, immigration, war, and Trump.  Frank discusses recent meetings with members of the Prime Minister's cabinet who stop by Frank's residence in New Brunswick en route to this week's retreat in PEI.  Top of mind items for Canada's government leaders include the public's grow...

In Episode 42, Frank checks in from his summer location in New Brunswick for a wide ranging discussion on a busy geopolitical calendar.  We start close to home with a recap of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's recent speech to Frank's charity summer golf event on the East Coast.  Not surprisingly, Clinton's remarks centered on US politics, including the prospect of a Donald Trump Republican Par...

In Episode 41, Frank breaks down the startling developments that unfolded in Russia over the weekend, with the mercenary Russian army known as the Wagner Group apparently turning on President Putin and leading to a near civil war.  We switch to US politics where Frank downplays the risk of an uprising should former President Trump be sent to jail for one of his many legal issues.  Other topics dis...

Frank is joined by his colleague at TD Securities, The Honorable Rona Ambrose, for a wide-ranging discussion on Canadian politics including the upcoming Alberta Election, where a recent own goal by Rachel Notley on corporate taxes might be the catalyst for a UCP victory next week. Rona and Frank also discuss politics in Ottawa, including the assertion by former Prime Minister Jean Chretien that Co...

In Episode 39, Frank invites his new colleague from TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, Chris Krueger, to the monthly podcast for a discussion on US politics.  The two geopolitical experts discuss potential solutions to the pending debt ceiling, how Trump's legal woes work to his advantage and who might be his credible competitors in the Republican Primary.  Frank covers some high level conversa...

In Episode 38, Frank returns from a busy schedule of travelling the world this past month and provides a live eye view on several important hot button geopolitical topics.  He has just returned from a visit to the Middle East, where he met with senior political figures in Israel and Jordan, all of whom condemned the move by Israeli leader Netanyahu to condense power inside his government.  Frank a...

In Episode 37, Frank deep dives the immigration complexities of North America, in particular the issue of refugees seeking asylum from the USA into Canada via irregular ports of entry not covered under existing immigration agreements between the two countries. He admits there is no easy solution to the US's Southern border refugee problem which is complicated by the fact it is not just Mexicans us...

Episode 36 returns to addressing the geopolitical topics of the day. The episode begins with a discussion of the document storage security breaches by various important US politicians, a story that is keeping cable television political commentators busy.  Frank also addresses the topic du jour at this year's World Economic Forum, geo-economic fragmentation on the back of the energy crisis caused b...

The start of a new year is always a great time for predictions, so we decided to challenge Frank to provide his thoughts on ten of the most important geopolitical matters impacting Canada and the rest of the world order.  Frank does not disappoint and while not everything you will hear in the next 45 minutes will make you smile, there is some glimmer of hope on the horizon for both politics and th...

In Episode 34, Frank breaks down the legal woes of Donald Trump and is left to wonder "is it possible to be President of the United States while in jail?"  Of all the cases in front of the former President, Frank thinks it might be the otherwise innocuous and strange situation of the Mar-a-logo documents that is Trump's biggest legal risk.   Frank discusses the implications of a split Congress, in...

Episode 33 of our monthly podcast series on Geopolitics is a special bonus for our listeners.  In this episode, we listen in on a recent interview with The Honorable Rona Ambrose conducted at our 23rd Annual TD Securities Portfolio Management and Market Structure Conference held earlier this month.  In this episode, Rona tackles several important topics on the minds of Canadians including the lead...

In Episode 32, Frank addresses the rhetoric from Alberta's new Premier Danielle Smith who he believes will need to tone down the message in order to be electable next May. The theme of inflation is prevalent, with Frank touching on rising mortgage rates, OPEC's politically motivated decision to cut production and its impact on U.S. mid-terms and the mess caused by U.K. Prime Minister Truss' hugely...

In Episode 31, Frank and Peter catch up on world events, including the war in Ukraine and Putin's saber rattling over nuclear weapons, the changing political landscape in Europe and the U.K., the U.S. mid-terms and the Conservative Party's new leader in Canada. Frank provides a view from Cap Pele of the damage from Hurricane Fiona, which he considers to be the strongest storm to hit landfall in Ca...

In Episode 30, Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Securities, examines geopolitical issues south of the 49th parallel, starting with Nancy Pelosi's controversial trip to Taiwan and the Chinese Government's reaction. Frank also touches on Merrick Garland's decision to search Former President Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence, and how it impacts Republican perception of the Department of Justice. In another...