Geopolitics Unplugged

  Summary: In this episode we examine the reasons behind Cuba's recent widespread power outages, specifically focusing on the country's dependence on unreliable oil suppliers. We highlight Cuba's reliance on Venezuelan oil, which has significantly decreased due to international sanctions and internal problems, leading to a shift towards Russian oil. Additionally, we criticize Cuba's choice to rely...

Summary: In this episode we discuss the development and deployment of autonomous hunter-killer drones by various countries, particularly focusing on the US, Israel, Turkey, and China. We examine the capabilities of specific drones such as the US' Replicator and Replicator 2, Israel's Orbiter 2 LM, Turkey's STM Kargu 2, and various Chinese drones. We also raise the question of whether the US is fal...

Summary: In this episode, we discuss the effectiveness of sanctions imposed on Russian crude oil exports, arguing that despite a price cap, the volume of Russian oil traded has increased. This increase is facilitated by a "dark fleet" of vessels, which allows Russia to evade sanctions and continue exporting oil. We also demonstrate that while Russian oil is sold at a discount compared to similar c...

Summary: Moldova and Georgia are both holding elections that will determine their future direction: closer to Russia or toward the European Union (EU). In this episode we highlight the upcoming Georgian election on October 26th and share the results of a recent Moldovan referendum, which showed 50.16% of voters supporting closer ties with the EU. We also discuss the nine current EU candidate count...

Summary: In this episode we explore the potential consequences of North Korea sending troops to fight in the Ukraine war. We express skepticism about the practicality of integrating North Korean soldiers into the Russian military due to significant differences in language, military equipment, and cultural values. We speculate that a large-scale North Korean deployment could potentially lead to a h...

Summary: In this episode we explore the concept of Pan-Arabism, a political movement seeking to unify all Arab people into a single nation-state. We detail its origins, goals, and its connection to Arab nationalism, highlighting the movement's historical significance and its impact on regional politics. We also address the question of whether Iran, historically associated with not being an Arabs s...

Summary: The European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI) aims to create a unified air defense system for Europe, but faces several challenges. First, the initiative involves a diverse group of nations, some within and some outside of NATO and the EU, requiring complex system integration. Second, there are competing national interests and strategic cultures, as seen in Poland’s reluctance to join and Fra...

Summary: In this episode we discuss the potential decline of OPEC+ and its influence on the global oil market. We highlight the Saudi Arabian government's recent decision to unilaterally adjust production levels, questioning the OPEC+’s authority. We discuss the emergence of major oil discoveries outside of OPEC+ controlled regions, such as with American shale and in Guyana and Namibia, as a facto...

Summary: In this episode we debunk common misconceptions about the ability to intercept nuclear missiles. We explain that recalling or aborting a launched ICBM or SLBM is impossible, and that shooting them down in flight is unreliable due to the complexity of their flight phases and the effectiveness of countermeasures. We also highlight the challenges of intercepting tactical nuclear weapons, par...

Summary: In this episode we explore the potential for instability in Jordan, examining the country's complex history, political landscape, and current events. The We highlight the historical tensions between Jordan and its Palestinian population, which has become increasingly sympathetic to Hamas, a group supported by Iran. The author also discusses the difficult balancing act that Jordan's King A...

Summary: In this episode we explore the possibility of European countries developing their own nuclear weapons, prompted by Ukrainian President Zelensky's recent comments about the need for nuclear deterrence. We discuss the process of uranium enrichment, a crucial step in nuclear weapon production, highlighting the key role of centrifuges in achieving the necessary level of enrichment. We examine...

Summary: In this episode we explore the concept of Deep Big Data Learning (DBDL), a new form of artificial intelligence (AI) that utilizes large datasets and advanced algorithms to uncover hidden relationships and patterns. We begin by outlining the evolution of AI from supervised learning to the current "sequence transduction" approach exemplified by Google's "transformer" and OpenAI's GPT models...

Summary:  In this episode we discuss the future of the DUI defense industry in light of the development of self-driving vehicles. We examine various aspects of the technology, including its current state, future development, legal implications, and consumer acceptance. We discuss that while the technology is still in its early stages and faces numerous challenges, its eventual implementation will...

Summary: In this episode we explain the challenges facing Russia in exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) due to international sanctions. These sanctions have targeted Russian LNG vessels, particularly ice-class tankers crucial for transporting LNG from Arctic regions. The sanctions also make it difficult for Russia to find buyers and insurance for its LNG. While Russia has the ability to produce...

Summary:  In this episode, we discuss the vulnerabilities of the US industrial cyber infrastructure, particularly the power grid, water management, and communications systems. We highlight how outdated technology, weak security practices, and a lack of sufficient separation between operational and IT networks as contributing factors to these vulnerabilities. While there are agencies like CISA work...

Summary:  In this episode we explore the economic feasibility of investing US taxpayer money to improve the Lobito Atlantic Railway (LAR) in Angola, aiming to facilitate the transportation of cobalt, lithium, rare earth metals, and copper from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Zambia, and Angola to the Atlantic port of Lobito for eventual US consumption. We raise concerns about the feasibili...

Summary: I this episode we examine clickbait legacy media drumbeat fear stroking of China invading Taiwan. In it we look at six main reasons. We discuss the logistical challenges of a large-scale land invasion, including the difficulties of transporting troops and supplies across the Taiwan Strait, the lack of deep-water ports in Taiwan, and the island's challenging terrain. Additionally, we discu...

Summary:  In this episode we explore the economic viability of domestic cobalt and lithium mining in the United States compared to global mining operations, particularly in Australia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). We explore how domestic mining is unlikely to be competitive due to higher costs, regulatory hurdles, and potential environmental concerns. Furthermore, we point out the eth...

Summary:  In this episode we explore the potential motivations behind the "defund Ukraine" movement. We posit two primary scenarios: Scenario 1 attributes the movement to an organic backlash against the post-9/11 US neoconservative agenda and its perceived failures, like the Iraq War. Scenario 2 suggests the movement is a product of successful Russian "active measures," a covert propaganda campaig...

Summary:  In this episode we analyze Saudi Arabia's recent announcement to increase oil production. We highlight how this decision seems to have been made without OPEC+ consensus, is a "punitive" move and how it may be interpreted as a move to try to discipline US shale producers, who have been overproducing oil. Is Saudi Arabia, frustrated by the US shale industry's lack of price coordination and...

Summary: In this episode, we discuss France's recent commissioning of a new nuclear aircraft carrier and how it signifies its commitment to remaining a blue-water navy, a powerful naval force capable of operating across vast distances. This move comes as the world experiences a shift away from full-scale globalization and a return to reshoring industries. A blue-water navy is critical for projecti...

Summary:  In this episode we discuss North Korea's increasing nuclear capabilities, particularly the possibility of developing a nuclear-powered submarine. We provide information about North Korea's existing submarine fleet and the recent launch of the Hero Kim Kun Ok, a diesel-powered submarine equipped with missile capabilities. We focus on reports from South Korea, indicating that North Korea i...

Summary: In this episode, we examine the possibility that if Russia had its way, would it move beyond Ukraine to conquer other countries, focusing on Moldova. We focus our discussion on similarities between the pre-text to the Ukraine invasions and Transnistria, a region that broke away from Moldova with Russian support, as a potential target, citing a recent appeal from pro-Russian separatists in...

Summary: In this episode, we discuss the growing need for energy to support advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductors. We expresses concern about the potential energy shortage that could arise as the U.S. increases its domestic production of semiconductors and AI technology. This is compounded by the ongoing transition to less energy-dense, intermittent renewable energy sourc...

Summary:  In this episode we discuss Wolfspeed, a company that manufactures silicon carbide (SiC) semiconductors, has secured $750 million in funding from the US CHIPS Act and an additional $750 million from an investment group. SiC is a type of wide bandgap (WBG) semiconductor that offers significant advantages over traditional silicon semiconductors. These advantages include higher efficiency, b...