Gene Peroni's Daily Podcast

Yesterday’s market action was likely pretty typical of what we’ll see this month and into October with expansive trading swings. 

The Dow and other major indices seem to be in a slow-drip decline, which can be deceptive and seem innocuous on the surface but underlying there can be quite the volatility – it is September….

Reviewing a cross section of charts representing a variety of sectors, the market seems a bit tired; not ominous of a major retreat, but an indication they may need to consolidate before they can make more ground. 

The VIX trading just above 16 this morning, which brings it back to its baseline.

Just two trading days left in August and we may see a pullback in September – historically the most difficult month for stocks. 

September is the cruelest month for stocks historically. 

This summer the stock market has navigated well through a number of different headline events. 

The Russell 2000 – composed of medium and small cap stocks – is lagging behind the broader market and the larger cap indices. 

A structurally good day for the market yesterday with the indices and underlying market continuing to perform as well as they have. 

The CBOE Volatility Index trading in the 18-area this morning; well off of last week’s highs near 25.

With the stock market in this more vulnerable state technically, daily trading action could continue to be erratic. 

The stock market is in consolidation mode. I want to be careful to make that distinction between consolidation and correction. 

As we move through the heart of the 2nd quarter earnings season, investors are turning their attention to other factors and events that might have an impact on 3rd quarter earnings results. 

With this morning’s rally in the CBOE Volatility Index, we are seeing a breach of that near-term downtrend of descending intraday lows. 

As the dog days of summer continue, the stock market is down this morning with losses very uniform across the market; appears to be a gently corrective day. 

No triskaidekaphobia (fear of Friday the 13th) for this stock market as it shows great form and resiliency. 

The Fed once again signaling that it might be at the end of its highly accommodating monetary policy; market took the news in stride yesterday, appreciating the transparency from the Fed. 

West Texas Intermediate crude trading around $67/barrel and could be in for a test of that short-term support around the mid-$60 area. 

The market in this cycle is behaving different than I’ve observed in my entire career; extraordinary the leadership and participation across the diverse sectors. 

In many ways this has been an unprecedented bull market run; certainly one of the most obvious is the span of time. 

Rapid rotation has been a defining characteristic of the stock market this year, and it can at times be confusing and misleading; misleading being the key term here. 

Connecting the dots in yesterday’s trading: clearly the coronavirus siren was playing a role with the increasing cases weighing on investors. 

Several years ago some market strategists were proclaiming that the “Buy & Hold” strategy was essentially dead, but that has not been proven to be the case. 

From time to time I talk about the broad based market; we’re seeing a very balanced behavior among the major market indices this year. 

Daily headline news events continue to present distractions for investors and tempering the market.