Gene Peroni's Daily Podcast

Consistency has been a missing element in this market environment; we’ve seen a number of pivot days, dramatic days and even a nice reversal day, but no follow through in any of those days. 

Yesterday’s expansive trading swings were similar to the reversals we saw on January 24 and late last month, but didn’t yield a positive close. 

Another all-too-familiar Monday rout with investors reacting to news from the weekend; and of course the indications that the Russia-Ukraine war could go on for quite an extended period. 

Escalating tensions in the war between Russia and Ukraine putting pressure on stocks this morning. 

“March comes in like a lion and leaves like a lamb.” It’s not just the historical weather report; I think that could prove to be the forecast for stocks. 

Another expansive trading swing for the Dow and the other major market indices, but the Dow holding at the upper part of its support band.

From a top-down perspective, the stock market is exhibiting a more resilient tone and reinforced by the underlying market where more stocks are exhibiting healthy technical trends. 

Last Friday’s dynamic reversal came one month after the January 24 pivot, which I think was the first indication of breaking downward momentum following weeks of unrelenting selling. 

The latest sentiment survey indicates that bullish sentiment is at its lowest level in months. This might indicate that bulls are throwing in the towel — a potential precursor to a meaningful trading rally. 

We’re still in a market that is toiling over political and geopolitical uncertainties, the Fed, how earnings will fair with the 1st quarter…

Buying on the dips may be easier said than done. It certainly does present a psychological challenge, but I think for those taking a longer-term investing perspective that a long-term approach does provide the best strategy in this environment. 

Each day we are faced with the repetitive narratives explaining away the market’s behavior day to day and hour by hour. 

Yesterday’s rally delivering the Dow right up to the 35,000, but closed just under. This millennium level represents more of a psychological resistance point than a technical one. 

Stocks up sharply higher this morning; not a surprise technically since the major indices did move to the lower part of their pennant formations. 

In yesterday’s report I mentioned the forming pennant formations in the major market indices — patterns of ascending peaks and descending lows and it seems like we might be on a trend to a convergence of those two trend lines. 

The January 24th lows continue to look like a significant bottom for the market and an important one technically. 

Another week of high reactivity to news events, indicating the market isn’t back to full health, but it might be in repair and I believe that is the case. 

(Recorded after market close on 1/31): A few comments about today’s (1/31) action, especially since I believe it confirms last week’s action as being a pivotal point for the market technically… 

Expansive trading swings in yesterday’s session pre- and post-Fed statement were reflected in the volatility index; the market still seems to be a bit on edge. 

Monday’s market reversal may have signaled a significant — if not major — bottom for the growth category. 

Yesterday’s market rebound was the first real technical reversal we’ve seen since this ratcheting decline began earlier this month; doesn’t mean we’re on the straight away for recovery, but is encouraging. 

Complacency is being displaced by fear which could become a capitulation of sorts here over the near term. 

Yesterday’s market action was another one of those familiar “rally failures” and disconcerting from a technical standpoint. 

As of yesterday’s closing, the Nasdaq is within less than 100 points of the lows it struck last October; this is an area where I would expect some kind of a technical bounce.