Gene Peroni's Daily Podcast

The first five months of 2022 have been characterized by high volatility and expansive trading swings due to investors’ reactions to headline news and technical movements. 

A few observations as we begin the summer session on Wall Street. I think that the major market indices have established a bottom… 

Another solid showing for stocks yesterday, and one that might be shifting the onus on the bears rather than on the bulls. 

I think we might see a more consistent and reliable rebound than we’ve seen year to date, but certainly with some bumps along the way. 

In my estimation the DJIA may be close to completing a formidable bottom and one that launches a rally. 

The VIX is clearly in a pennant formation, with well-defined trend lines indicating ascending lows and descending peaks. 

Last Friday’s session seemed to be one of those grueling selloffs going into the weekend, but buying came in before the close and the major market indices finished little changed. 

Gene Peroni’s Daily Podcast: There are so many different commentaries right now, and they’re all valid comments, but from a technical standpoint, I think what we’re starting to see is a tug of war between the bears and the bulls… 

Depending on the market condition the CBOE Volatility Index can be conveniently be interpreted to fit the narrative of the day or the moment, but in this case I’d view yesterday’s declining trend as… 

The Dow has now extended its weekly losses to 7, but this could be the week that breaks that change of losses. I say that for several reasons… 

Stocks higher this morning. There’s an old saying on Wall Street that “When Time Magazine recognizes the bear market on its cover, that it’s time to buy.” 

Looking at the big volume days since March, they’re biased toward selling. Once this market finds its bottom, we could see a meaningful recovery — at least initially.

Given the market’s volatility and its delicate condition year to date, my daily commentaries have seemed more like a narration of the market’s action with a very near-term forecast. So today I’d like to project further toward the end of this year… 

The market’s unrelenting selling pressure continues. Even though stocks are higher this morning, investors will probably look at this skeptically since rallies have proven to be fleeting. 

Capitulation could be in the cards here, but I don’t think what we’re seeing this morning indicates that capitulation is imminent. 

It’s understandable that some could be skeptical about yesterday’s rally as it really came after the Fed announced its intentions to raise rates by 50 basis points. 

We could see a trading rally today and carry through the short run. I believe the Dow is poised to test resistance at the 34,000 level. 

I think there’s a great deal of hesitation to proclaim that the latest market reversal is a technical bell ringer that might usher in a sustainable rebound. 

Fear could be replaced by capitulation; that based on what we’ve seen the past two Fridays. 

Yesterday’s market hesitated at the opening, but then it was off to the races and the major market indices held onto their lion’s share of gains. 

The market is oversold and I think we could be in for a relief rally that tests some near-term resistance for the major market indices. 

The CBOE Volatility Index — dubbed the “fear index” — finished yesterday around 33.50, still well below my target range between 36 and 42. 

From technical scorched earth to seeds of hope, this has been the market’s MO this year.