Gene Peroni's Daily Podcast

Some firms are issuing more cautious outlooks for the stock market. This may be a good thing for the market outlook short-term. 

The CBOE Volatility Index reflecting some shakeup of complacency in yesterday’s session, with the VIX (“Fear Index”) moving above the 15 level. 

AI stocks appear to be sputtering ahead of the 1st quarter earnings reporting season, which should come as no surprise given the big gains that this category has scored year to date. 

It was 26 years ago that I first appeared on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser and I was billed the “No April Fool.” 

Rotation was on full display in yesterday’s session, a session that saw the Dow and S&P 500 rally into uncharted territory… 

The stock market has been consolidating over the last three trading sessions, essentially since its initial, positive knee-jerk reaction to the Fed’s announcement last week that it may cut rates up to three times this year. 

The S&P 400 Midcap Index is up just under 8% year to date. That puts its performance in close proximity to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. I think this is important because… 

Yesterday’s market was the latest example of how difficult, if not futile, it is to try to sharp shoot near-term support and resistance targets, and to set objectives for the major market indices. 

This is a Fed-decision Wednesday. The Fed due to announce its decision on interest rates early this afternoon and perhaps more importantly investors will be awaiting the accompanying statement… 

The CBOE Volatility Index (“fear index”) has been in a basic downtrend since October 2022, but since then there have been several instances where it has established a short-term base… 

Several weeks ago, I mentioned that it seemed to me that the CBOE Volatility Index was in a bottoming formation, and that I believe continues to be the case… 

March has ushered in a bit more volatility. I think this is part of that micro-cycle factor… 

Energy is the “E” in “THEM” — an acronym I first mentioned nearly 20 years ago to describe what I believed was the core leadership in the market at the time. 

AI stocks snapped back sharply yesterday, but most failed to move above the level set in last Friday’s session. 

Yesterday I commented on the high-volume reversals that we saw in a number of the AI stocks and other aggressive growth areas…but I don’t think we’ve seen a major top in that area of the market. 

The seemingly unrelenting rally in AI stocks may have faced its first technical challenge in last Friday’s session. 

Investor sentiment numbers can be interpreted to suit one’s narrative; for instance, last December I noted that with a bullish consensus rising above the 50% level… 

I mention frequently how important it is to consider the underlying market and regarding the stocks individually and letting them really guide where the real strengths of the market are with respect to leadership.

Over the years there have been a number of liquidity-driven rallies in the stock market, and these were often the result of a significant event; for instance, in the late 1990s...

There seems to be no taming of this bull market run...

February delivered balanced performances among the major market indexes: The Russell 3000, S&P 500, Nasdaq & Dow Jones Industrial. 

In recent reports, I've been mentioning the potential for heightened volatility and a market that could be a bit more reactive to day-to-day events and news items.

It seems that at least for the moment the buying frenzy in AI stocks may be cooling off, and that’s not such a bad thing since… 

It probably isn’t difficult to make the case that the market is somewhat overbought given the gains that we’ve seen since last October, and even since the beginning of this year. 

Yesterday’s big market rally featured technology, and more specifically, the AI stocks. We did see quite the enthusiastic buying…