FXCM Market Talk Your Trading & Finance Podcast

In this week's podcast, FXCM senior market specialists Nik and Russ discuss central banks' potential pausing. In addition, the two analysts discuss the inflation data, specifically the CPI release, which precedes the Fed's next rate hike by a day. Moreover, the BoE and ECB will hike on Thursday, with all three central banks expected to deliver 50bps. All these and more.

Average hourly earnings surprised to the upside, printing at 0.6% MoM - double the 0.3% MoM expected. This has raised the spectre of a wage inflation spiral. Markets are edgy and are reacting to bullish and bearish news. Upside surprises continued with ISM Services PMI and factory orders beating forecast. The ECB has indicated a minimum of 50bps for its hike. Join FXCM Senior Market Specialists Ru...

In this week's podcast, FXCM senior market specialists, Russ and Nik, discuss the aggressive hike by the RBNZ despite other banks signalling a slowdown in pace. In addition, the two also talk about oil demand out of China and give their opinion on the Fed's minutes. In addition, this Thursday will see the preferred measure of inflation - core PCE - released, and Friday is NFP Friday. Listen to the...

The Fed and BoE both hike by 75 bps but their tonality contrast with each other. RBA shows conservativeness, with central bank signs of slowing down in some regions. NFP leads to an odd market reaction and critical inflation data this Thursday. Into this mix, we also have the US mid-terms. All this and more.

The week FXCM market specialists Russ and Nik discuss the u-turn in PM Liz Truss's policies. Inflation remains rampant and sticky, with core CPI surprising to the upside. The terminal rate jumps to 5%, with the following two meetings for 2022 expected to hike at 75bps each. USDJPY reaches 32 years high, as central bank policies diverge. Please listen in for the above and more.

In this week's podcast, FXCM Senior Market Specialists Russ and Nik discuss the fallout from the UK's mini-budget. The two specialists also talk about jobs data and how that impacts the Fed's monetary policy in its battle to tame inflation. In addition, the environment increases in complexity with the Q3 earnings season kicking off this week. Join our specialists as they discuss these and more.

Last week's minibudget caused vast amounts of volatility in the Gilt market, with GBPUSD reacting. Finally, the BoE stepped in to calm markets. Since then, UK Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng has backtracked on 45% tax rate cut. The core PCE in the US surprised to the upside at 4.9%, suggesting sticky inflation. This Friday, we will see the NFP numbers, with forecasts ranging between 250-265k, suggesting...

Last week's CPI numbers showed resilient inflation. This surprised markets and introduced 100bps as an option for the Fed. Join FXCM Market Specialists Russ and Nik as they discuss this, the new terminal rate, and the chances of the Fed overshooting. The two specialists also examine the yield inversion and discuss the BoJ's monetary policy. Please join us for these and more.

Fed chair Powell's speech led to a risk-off environment, as he outlined inflation as the primary policy driver. However, the Fed was not the only hawkish central bank, with tightening comments from the ECB. Moreover, the ECB minutes seemed to downplay a recession. This prompts Russ and Nik to discuss a general and potential contrarian overshoot scenario. NFP on Friday has forecasts between 285-295...

The NFP release was a big upside surprise. Unemployment dropped to 3.5%, and the economy created 528K jobs during July (vs 250K estimate). Expectations are now for another 75bps hike in September, with all eyes on today's CPI release. Last week saw both the RBA and BoE raise rates by 50bps, with the BoE's starling communication of 13% inflation by year-end and the onset of a recession. Friday sees...

The Fed hiked rates by 75bps and cancelled forward guidance. GDP indicates a technical recession, and US inflation is still ticking at the highest level in 40 years. The Eurozone shows resilience but with savage inflation on its side of the pond. This week the BoE and RBA will hike rates, but there is scope for surprises. NFP Friday has a forecast of 250K jobs created in July. Yet, the tension bet...

Inflation is still in focus as the US printed at 9.1%  - the fastest pace since 1981. Bank of Canada surprises with 100bps to front load hikes due to inflationary concerns. Waller and Bullard talk down hike expectation to 75bps from 100bps. Fed funds rate has 75bps at 70% for 27 July hike. Bank earnings disappoint; this week, NFLX and Tesla kick off the tech side. Housing data is in focus on...

NFP came in better than expected, albeit trending down. Other data hints at cracks forming in the job market. FXCM market specialists, Nik and Russ, discuss this further. The yield curve remains inverted and is in danger of steeper inversion as the Fed continues with its aggressiveness. Wednesday sees the CPI release, with markets forecasting a higher headline number than previous. RBNZ and BoC al...

Last week saw quarterly GDP contracts and PCE show signs of moderation. Moreover, manufacturing missed its forecast. All of a sudden, the narrative focuses on recession. Nik and Russ discuss if the Fed's focus will change in Q3. The RBA looks to deliver further hikes, and Wednesday sees the release of the FOMC's minutes from its June meeting.

This week FXCM senior market specialists Russ and Nik talk about inflation. First from the ECB's point of view and then moving to the US CPI miss on Friday. Market reactions were swift, which followed through to Monday. This Wednesday sees the Fed rate hike, and the market repricing from 50bps to 75bps had a large part to play in Monday's bloodbath. Thursday has the BoE hiking rates, with the mark...

Our senior market specialists, Nik and Russ, cover much ground this week. Several Fed officials make hawkish statements, with the NFP beat laying a foundation. Other central banks continue to be hawkish, with the BoC and the RBA hiking by 50bps. OPEC+ accelerated its schedule, but the oil market remains tight, and Boris Johnson survives a no-confident vote against him. Finally, the ECB meeting pre...

President Lagarde prepares the market for the ECB rate hike and Fed QT to start on 1 June. FOMC minutes reaffirm previous communications, with no unexpected concerns. OPEC+ meets as China lockdowns ease. Friday sees the release of NFP as the tightening cycle continues.

The Fed delivered a 50bps hike as expected, and the BoE statement makes a stagflation inference. RBA also raises rates in this uncertain economic environment. All eyes now turn to this week's CPI print in anticipation of moderation. 

BoJ diverges further away from Fed as it defends 25bps on its 10-year treasury. Core PCE moderates slightly, but employment costs are up. Advanced GDP stumbles to -1.4%contraction Q/Q. The RBA surprised with a 25bps hike, and the market looks to the Fed announcement on Wednesday for an expected 50bps hike and QT information. The market expects the BoE to raise rates by 25 bps, and Friday sees the...

Last Thursday, Fed Chair Powell hinted at a 50 bps hike for May. He also endorsed an acceleration in the raising of rates. Moreover, the market is preparing for these to be front-loaded over the next few meetings. The ECB is also growing more hawkish, and EU CPI came in at 7.2%. Twitter has agreed to Elon Musk's offer of $54.20 per share in a takeover, and this week will see the rest of the FAANG...

Our market specialists discuss inflation in this week's podcast, specifically PPI's influence on core CPI. The ECB confirms that its APP will conclude in Q3 and Elon Musk makes an unsolicited bid for Twitter. We also talk about USDJPY and its seven weeks of dramatic rise. This week has notable central bankers speaking at the spring meetings of the IMF, and it's an important week for earnings.&nbsp...

The Fed has moved towards aggressive tightening, with a balance sheet reduction from May and possibly two consecutive 50bps hikes. Elon Musk takes a 9% stake in Twitter but doesn't take a board seat. CPI is forecast to be higher than last month's print, and RBNZ, BoC, and ECB will release statements this week. Finally, this week kicks off Q1 earnings. 

Friday's job report shows a robust labour market. Given last week's high core PCE reading, a 50bps hike in May is a strong possibility. Our analysts note the inverted yield curve and look forward to Wednesday's FOMC minutes. Finally, Bitcoin is showing signs of accumulation.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has heightened the concern of stagflation. The price of oil, wheat and corn have risen significantly due to the supply shocks caused by the conflict. In this environment, central banks must navigate tighter monetary policy, with the Fed announcement on Wednesday. Markets will focus on Fed Chair Powell's press conference and the dot plots to gauge possibilities in this...

As Friday closed for trading, imposed sanctions seemed underwhelming. This tone changed on Saturday as some Russian Banks were excluded from SWIFT, and the Russian central bank was sanctioned. Geopolitical risks intensify as Russia continues its invasion of Ukraine. Wednesday and Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before the House Financial Services and Senate Banking Committees. The RBA...