Frontrunner

Wheat and corn futures continued to drive higher earlier this week, setting new contract highs. US markets reached their highest level for eight years and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures pushed above $7/bu – a level double their contract low. New crop London wheat futures at their highest had risen over this month by an impressive £35/t. Higher European futures markets reflected concern...

Persistent cold dry weather affecting much of the US and Western Europe coupled with ongoing Chinese demand drove wheat and corn markets sharply higher this week. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures have gained over 8% since last Friday’s close and are trading over $7 per bushel, bringing them to their highest level since May 2014. European new crop wheat futures have been equally impressi...

Wheat markets continued to rise this week, reacting to increasing concerns for wheat crops as dry and very cold weather persists in Western Europe and parts of the US. The latest US drought monitor maps show an increasing area of extreme drought now impacting on over three-quarters of major spring wheat state, North Dakota. However, spring wheat drilling in the state achieved 8% completion by 11th...

On Wednesday 31ST March, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its quarterly US stock and acreage report. It contained bullish data for corn that triggered a sharp price rally for Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures, sending them to new contract highs; the highest level seen since 2013. Despite the report having bearish wheat data, wheat futures followed corn futures...

World wheat markets have fallen again this week and have now effectively lost all the price gains they made in 2021. London wheat futures fell to their lowest level since the 17th December. In January, fears that Russia would close the door on wheat exports saw Black Sea export prices soar to £300/t free on board (FOB), before including freight costs. Buyers are now harder to find and traders’ off...

Please note, in this audio report China was reported to have purchased three million tonnes of US supplies during the week commencing the 15th March 2021. Following the release of this recording, China purchased a further 800,000 tonnes. World wheat markets have slipped 2-3% lower this week following better than expected wheat crop estimates from analysts for many of the world’s primary wheat expo...

Earlier this week, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Speculative traders holding significant long positions in US grain futures were hoping for a helping hand to support their bullish view but were left disappointed. It was expected that the USDA would lower its corn production estimates for Argenti...

World wheat markets have slipped this week. A lack of fresh bullish features has led to spells of profit taking from speculative buyers who still carry significant long positions in grain futures markets. US weekly wheat export shipments and sales were particularly disappointing. However, the weekly export pace from the EU was far more encouraging. Wheat shipments for last week were one million to...

The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) updated estimates for the current season's UK wheat balance sheet this week, highlighting a huge two-million-tonne cut in domestic wheat consumption. Demand in the human and industrial sectors is now seen at 6.438 million tonnes; almost half a million tonnes lower than last season. This is primarily due to loss of demand for biofuel and sta...

A period of extreme cold has affected the primary US winter wheat producing states in recent days. Temperatures nearing record lows of between -15-20°c have been recorded as far south as Texas and concerns that wheat crops will be subject to winter kill has triggered volatile trading in Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures. Prices rallied to their highest since the end of January as the chi...

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Tuesday this week, which many traders expected to present a very bullish picture for world grains, particularly corn. Last week’s record US corn sales to China coupled with adverse South American weather over the past month, which has impacted on corn productio...

Last week’s Frontrunner reported China making significant purchases of US corn. China bought over six million tonnes, which helped take total US weekly corn export sales to 7.44 million tonnes for the period up to the 28th January. This is a record high, doubling the previous weekly high set back in 2012. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that US 2020-21 exports will rea...

Early this week, world wheat futures markets continued to be pressured by speculative long holder selling. Losses extending from the contract highs reached last week have resulted in futures markets losing almost all the price gains they had made since the start of January. Losses for London wheat futures were almost £15/t. However, further political intervention that will disrupt grain flows part...

US wheat futures peaked last Friday, ending the 30% price rally that began last August. Futures markets had become technically overbought and were due a correction. US markets were closed for a public holiday on Monday but Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures subsequently posted four consecutive days of losses. London wheat futures peaked on Monday, setting a contract high price that hasn’t...

Few World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) reports from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) trigger a market reaction such as the reaction triggered by the report released earlier this week. A report with such futures volatility following a period of prolonged market price gains hasn’t been seen since 2012/13. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn and wheat futures ralli...

World grain markets have started the new year with sharp gains, led higher by US soybean and corn futures. Prolonged dry weather and a rainfall deficit for developing corn and soybean crops across both Argentina and Brazil are raising concerns that yields will be adversely affected amidst strengthening export demand, particularly from China. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn and wheat futures ral...

Russia, the world’s leading wheat exporter, officially confirmed it would introduce a €25/t export tax in the new year. The tax will be applied to its 17.5-million-tonne export quota, which begins on the 15th February and runs to the 30th June 2021. Traders are unlikely to exceed the quota in light of the news that tonnage which surpasses this figure will be taxed at 50% of the sales value. Market...

World wheat markets posted sharp gains this week, recovering much of the losses they had made since the end of last month. The primary driver for these positive moves was news that Russia may introduce additional measures to control wheat exports. Russia has previously established a quota of 17.5 million tonnes to limit wheat exports between February and June 2021, but so far this has proved to ha...

US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures continued to fall this week and by close of business on Thursday were 10% below the 4-year highs they peaked at in October. The increasing size of the Australian, Canadian and Indian wheat crops as well as a proposed increase in Russian export quota combine to signal ample wheat supplies and a bearish feel to markets. The Australian Bureau of Agricult...

In a trading week that was shorter than usual due to Thanksgiving, there has been little fresh wheat news. Instead, markets have been buoyed by China’s continued purchasing of US corn. With another 200,000 tonnes purchased last week, the market continues to predict China’s overall demand. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has estimated it will reach 7.2 million tonnes while other...

World wheat markets stalled this week with a lack of any fresh bullish features to drive them higher again. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures drifted as their winter wheat crop rating made modest improvements following recent rains. 46% of the crop is rated ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ and is up one point on the week. This is still well behind this time last year when 52% of the crop receive...

World wheat markets stalled this week with a lack of any fresh bullish features to drive them higher again. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures drifted as their winter wheat crop rating made modest improvements following recent rains. 46% of the crop is rated ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ and is up one point on the week. This is still well behind this time last year when 52% of the crop receive...

World wheat markets rallied this week following the publication of the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Tuesday afternoon. There were few changes to the world wheat estimates from last month’s report. Russian production increased by half a million tonnes to 83.5 million tonnes, the Argentinian estimate...

Earlier this week, wheat markets eased lower following concerns that the increasing impact of Covid-19 will lead to cuts in global demand for grains, particularly from the fuel sector. Wheat price gains made in the second half of October were all but lost. However, on Thursday, the US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean market jumped to $11 per bushel, a four-year high, which pulled world wheat...

World wheat markets have made impressive gains in price since harvest, highlighted by US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures which, by the end of last week, had gained over 25% in value. This is impressive as the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates a record world wheat crop of 733 million tonnes - up nine million tonnes on last year. Furthermore, USDA estimates see sto...