Forward Guidance

In this episode, George Robertson returns to break down why he’s turned bearish. He explains why he thinks massive fiscal tightening from tariffs and job cuts, corporate profits rolling over, and the flow-of-funds are signaling recession even as markets sit at all-time highs. He walks through employment indicators, withholding data, and the widening gap between S&P levels and actual earnings, argu...

This week, we dig into the government shutdown, weakening labor markets, AI’s role in productivity, Michael Howell’s demographic analysis, and how fiscal and market structure dynamics set the stage for a potential risk-asset melt-up. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://tw...

Live from the Origin Summit, hosted by Story and Blockworks, Morgan Stanley’s Head of Emerging Markets Equity Amy Oldenburg explains how her journey from tech to emerging markets led her to crypto, why mobile-first nations are fertile ground for stablecoins, how governments and banks are wrestling with this shift, and where she sees the next big opportunities across EM and innovation. Enjoy! __ Fo...

This week, we discuss the biggest risks to the economy, whether Mag7 is a bubble, surprisingly strong consumer data, the increasingly noisy housing and labor markets, risks around Fed policy and dollar liquidity, and why gold has been a cleaner macro hedge than Bitcoin. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_in...

Live from the Origin Summit, hosted by Story and Blockworks, Co-Founder of BitMEX & CIO of Maelstrom Arthur Hayes shares his macro view on the erosion of Fed independence, inevitable money printing, and how these forces intersect with crypto markets. He covers Bitcoin’s performance versus gold and stocks, the political choices around AI’s productivity boom, and why DeFi, stablecoins, and new decen...

This week, we discuss the Fed rate cut and dovish pivot, exacerbating the K-shaped economy, why the dollar could be bottoming, and why gold helps Quinn sleep at night. We also dig into Bitcoin’s correlation to gold, the hollowing out of public markets by private credit, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.co...

In this episode, Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge Helen Thompson joins the show to discuss how Trump’s trade war, China’s energy and rare earth dominance, the Western Hemisphere’s oil boom, and NATO’s fiscal squeeze are reshaping global power. Enjoy! __ Follow Helen: https://x.com/HelenHet20 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidan...

This week, Quinn and Tyler cover lighter-than-expected PPI data, the Fed’s shifting focus from inflation to labor, deep labor-market revisions showing a “two-speed” U.S. economy, surging AI/data-center CapEx alongside weakening Main Street, and the concentration risks of mega-cap stocks and buybacks. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Forw...

In this episode, Founders of Atlas Merchant Capital Bob Diamond and David Schamis discuss their journey from traditional finance to digital assets. They discuss Hyperliquid’s explosive growth, permissionless financial rails, and the innovation of perpetual swaps. We also cover the unique token model with daily buybacks, how Atlas is bringing access to U.S. investors through a new treasury vehicle,...

This week, we discuss all the growing list of weaker labor market data after August NFP showed just 22K jobs added. We also debate whether the Fed will have room to cut 50bps in September while stagflation rears its head, the potential implications if tariffs are overturned, and whether it’s time to be concerned about liquidity and Fed plumbing. Ultimately, everything leads us to one asset. Enjoy!...

In this episode, Ben Kizemchuk joins the show to discuss his “Four Fs” macro framework – Fiscal Dominance, Financial Repression, Fiat Currency, & Passive Flows – arguing that we’re in a unique historical moment where all four are converging at once. He explains how fiscal spending reshapes growth, why financial repression and passive flows stabilize markets, and how fiat currency enables this enti...

This week, we break down the seasonal market pivot around Labor Day, how systematic strategies dominate price action, and why inflation and economic re-acceleration could make a September rate cut a policy mistake. We also dive into the shift from capital to labor, growing government intervention in markets, parallels between AI CapEx and past gold cycles, the potential rotation from large-caps in...

In this episode, founder of The Macro Compass Alfonso Peccatiello breaks down the clash between Trump’s political influence on the Fed, the reality of U.S. fiscal policy, and how to think about global markets at this moment in time. We also dig into forward rate pricing, the TGA rebuild, and the role of commodities and crypto in a world of loose monetary and fiscal policy. Enjoy! __ Follow Alf: ht...

This week, we break down the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium and whether we can expect a dovish or hawkish tilt from Powell’s legacy speech. We also dig into the Fed’s five-year policy review, Trump’s Fed takeover strategy, foreign retreat from Treasury auctions, and whether the risks of inflation are greater than the risk of recession. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Qu...

In this episode, David Grider of Finality Capital shares how he runs a digital asset hedge fund, the rise of digital asset treasury companies, and the evolving credit and derivatives markets shaping institutional crypto adoption. He also explains how macro liquidity signals drive his strategy and why the new toolbox of crypto credit instruments is changing the game for risk management and alpha ge...

This week, Brent Johnson joins us to break down the latest CPI & PPI data, the potential for September rate cuts, and why he thinks we’re ripe for a 10–15% correction. We also unpack Trump’s political strategy toward Powell, Brent’s dollar milkshake theory, and AI’s long-term impact on productivity, inflation, and the next generation. Enjoy! — Follow Brent: https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund Follow Tyle...

In this episode, labor market economist Guy Berger breaks down how jobs data is collected, why revisions happen, and how to interpret them in context. He explains the roles of NFP, claims, and JOLTS data, the impact of immigration shifts on labor supply, and how business surveys can signal future hiring trends. Berger also digs into why the current conditions show stability with potential for both...

This week, we discuss the wild shifts in September rate cut odds, President Trump's recent nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board, and the meltdown in commercial real estate & public pensions. We also game out different tariff scenarios, the impact of the TGA rebuild, and the economy’s slow-moving trainwreck. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https...

In this episode, Founder & CIO of Damped Spring Andy Constan breaks down the three major macro levers shaping markets right now: a cautious Fed at a leadership crossroads, a Treasury issuing cold water via its QRA policy, and a fiscal impulse that looks contractionary once tariffs are factored in. He argues that while markets may be riding “run it hot” narratives, the data suggests we're already s...

In this episode, we explore what’s next for markets after a week packed with major economic data. We break down the recent surge in market euphoria, discuss whether stagflation is taking hold, and examine the outlook for growth—plus much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https...

In this LIVE FOMC meeting reaction, we’re bringing together three of the sharpest minds in macro – Joseph Wang, Brent Donnelly, and Bob Elliott – to break down the Fed interest rate decision, Powell’s press conference, and what it all means for markets going forward. __ Follow Joseph: https://x.com/FedGuy12 Follow Brent: https://x.com/donnelly_brent Follow Bob: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited Follow F...

In this episode, Danny Dayan breaks down his framework for analyzing financial conditions and their real-time impact on growth and inflation. He explains why traditional rate transmission mechanisms are breaking down, how immigration and tariffs are distorting the labor market and inflation, and why the Fed may be behind the curve. Danny also lays out his case for a structurally weaker dollar, war...

This week, Felix and Quinn unpack the Fed independence drama following Trump’s visit to Powell, explore the long-term implications of politicizing monetary policy, and preview next week’s pivotal QRA. They discuss how inflation expectations are diverging from commodities, why real yield correlations are breaking down, and how the dollar’s regime may be shifting. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.co...

In this episode, PhD Economist Jens Nordvig breaks down the evolving macro environment marked by waning Fed independence, shifting capital flows, and a weakening U.S. dollar. He explains how tariff shocks, long-end bond dynamics, and geopolitical tensions are reshaping global investment behavior and challenging the traditional safe-haven role of U.S. assets. Jens also outlines the structural phase...

This week, Le Shrub joins the show to lay out his barbell portfolio strategy and "GAG" (Golden Age of Grift) thesis. We discuss fiscal dominance, bond market dysfunction, yield curve control, and why crypto—especially ETH—is gaining traction as the new high-yield frontier. We also cover risk scenarios like Japan yield shocks, Powell’s potential firing, rising inflation swaps, and how private equit...