Forward Guidance

On today’s episode of Forward Guidance, Felix Zulauf, a renowned macro investor known for his uncanny market timing, shares his outlook on various time horizons about stocks, bonds, and commodities. Zulauf explains why the reflationary types of trades might continue to sell-off over the near-term as economic conditions worsen, however restored liquidity conditions might in the second half of 2022...

Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist, joins Forward Guidance to make sense of the recent choppiness in stocks, commodities, and crypto. In conversation with Jack Farley, Muir shares: Why he is shorting Bitcoin and buying gold Why the bear market in speculative stocks (what he calls “crap”) will likely continue How secular inflation will accommodate value stocks but threaten growth stocks

Today’s guest, Alfonso Peccatiello, is a man with a rare insight into the macro forces driving the moves in markets which have perplexed many, but not all, investors. One such move is the recent flattening of the yield curve, which belies commonly-held views about the relationship between bond yields and inflation. Up until very recently, Alfonso was running a multi-billion dollar fixed-income boo...

With fund managers keen to lock in gains from a lucrative year, the “pain trade” is here, says Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman. Moreover, pie-in-the-sky technology companies are falling back to earth, threatening to bring the entire market down with them. Yet Kuppy remains bullish on risk assets because in his “Project Zimbabwe” framework wherein inflation runs rampant as central banks remain hopelessly...

The emergence of crypto funds and exchange traded products (ETPs) has changed the game - but just how much capital is flowing into crypto via these channels? James Butterfill, Investment Strategist at CoinShares, joins Jack Farley to shed light on the crypto fund flows that are serving as onramps for many institutional investors to Bitcoin, Ethereum, as well as Solana and Polkadot.

Listeners of the Forward Guidance podcast are in for a real treat today. Jack interviews noted economist and former central banker Dr. William White, who served on the front lines of monetary policy for over half a decade. White, a stern critic of the easy money policy that preceded the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, argues that ultra-low interest rates threatens financial stability and creates a be...

With inflation running hot around the globe, many investors are looking to hedge against inflation. But is that the right goal? On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley speaks to James Davolos, portfolio manager at the Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF ($INFL), a fund that which, as the name suggests, aims to invest in stocks that benefit from inflation. Davolos argues that i...

When Jack Farley ran into macro investor Michael Nicoletos at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in London, he knew the two had to film an interview. Nicoletos shares his thoughts on crypto’s role within a macro portfolio, why the U.S. dollar is rising against other currencies, and why the 40-year bull market in bonds might not yet be over. Nicoletos argues that central bank digital currencies (C...

We're heading for an inflationary decade that will change society as we know it. That's according to Vincent Deluard, director of global macro research at StoneX Group Inc, who argues inflation is not transitory as many insist but rather a feature of the new economic landscape that investors must prepare for. On the seventh episode of Forward Guidance, Deluard gives Blockworks' Jack Farley 5 reaso...

Tobias Carlisle, Portfolio Manager at Acquirers’ Funds, joins Jack Farley on this sixth episode of Forward Guidance to explain why he believes quality companies are being serially undervalued. Carlisle argues that the equity market assigns far too high of a value on fast-growing stocks, and far too-little of a value on companies whose revenues are growing slowly but whose return on capital is very...

Is the 40-year era of falling bond yields and low inflation coming to an end? That is the question investors have been asking themselves for months, and now that October's CPI reading hit its highest level since 1991, it is a query that can no longer be avoided. Eric Basmajian of EPB Macro Research is confident that all this anxiety is unnecessary. On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Basmajian...

The world of macro investing is full of narratives: that a rising dollar threatens emerging market stocks and commodity prices; that rising bond yields imperil growth stocks but buoy value stocks; and that inflation is bad for Tesla, good for gold, and great for Bitcoin. There is more than a grain of truth to these mantras, but they miss the complex interplay of macro variables. On today’s episode...

Do balance sheets matter? Do cash flows matter? In a world where asset prices are driven by liquidity rather than fundamentals, the answer can seem to be yes. But since this environment gives companies license to embroider their finances, the ability to spot their accounting sleight-of-hand is of immense value to investors. Today on the third episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley welcomes Steph...

The world faces an energy crisis that threatens to stop the economic recovery in its tracks. On today’s episode of Forward Guidance, Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, joins Jack Farley to explain the root causes of soaring prices of oil and natural gas. Pies argues that the world is entering a regime of secular inflation that will have profound implications for investors, such as turning...

“Forward Guidance” is a show dedicated to uncovering the heart of this conundrum. Twice a week, Jack Farley will be speaking directly with fund managers, analysts, and financial industry professionals about how investors can grow and protect their wealth in this brave new macro world. These episodes will air on Tuesday and Friday. Today's show is with Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. Ly...