Forward Guidance

Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital, joins Jack for a wide-ranging discussion on central banks, derivatives, and market structure. Hari shares his knowledge on everything from interest rate swaps to the demise of FTX, and he argues that short-expiry options are structurally cheaper than options with longer-dated tenors. Lastly, Hari and Jack exchange thoughts on what it mea...

Today Jack welcomes William White, senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve. They discuss why economic forecasts are so often wrong, how the world can escape the “debt trap,” and how central bankers face a trade-off between price stability (low inflation) and financial stability. William White’s work can be found here: https:/...

Zed Francis, chief investment officer at Convexitas, joins Jack to talk about interest rate risk, what really happened to the British pension system, and tail risk as a portfolio diversifier. Francis argues that December 2022 will see a wave of mandatory liquidations by the U.S. retirees forced to take mandatory distributions on their retirement accounts. These forced sales will be larger as a per...

Mike McGlone, macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, joins Jack to share his outlook on how commodities, bonds, and crypto will perform during this period of economic turbulence wherein some form of global recession is predicted by most mainstream economists.  McGlone argues that the price of oil remains too high to allow for economic growth, and that the pending economic slowdown is destroyi...

Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first year’s subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code. This is a deleted scene from an interview that Jack did with Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital and Harris Kupperman of Praetorian Capital, which origin...

In an emergency episode, Jack speaks to one of the sharpest crypto minds he knows, Matt Fiebach, research analyst on the Blockworks Research team, about the turmoil engulfing FTX, a digital asset exchange that up until very recently was considered one of the safest and most blue chip exchanges. Matt breaks down the collapse in confidence that led to FTX Token falling 80% over the course of one day...

In the November FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jay Powell stated that while the pace of economic growth is slowing, indicators point to modest growth in spending and production this quarter. Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, joins Forward Guidance to argue that the economy is slowing much, much faster than the Federal Reserve’s models indicate.  Tchir tells Jack Farley how brewin...

To get $1,000 off The pH report and receive a free sample report, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co, or visit https://new-normal.com/the-ph-report-overview/. Paul Hodges, author of The pH Report and chairman of New Normal Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share the grim tidings from the chemicals industry, whose troubles Hodges argues are indicating that consumer demand w...

Shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference on November 2nd, 2022, Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, join Jack Farley to share their thoughts from the November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follo...

With the Fed set to hike interest rates yet again, Jack is lucky to speak to the ultimate Federal Reserve heavyweights: Nick Timiraos, chief economics corresopndent for The Wall Street Journal, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed. Timiraos and Wang share what they will be watching for in the Powell presser on November 2nd, 2022, and discuss how resilient consumer balance she...

Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, has been extremely prescient in calling for persistently high inflation. Vincent returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he thinks that inflation will remain close to the 5-7% range over the next decade, due to inflationary demographics, the reversal of globalization, regular energy crises, and declining immigration. Deluard proposes a “holy Trin...

Jack welcomes Sam Martin and Dan Smith, analysts on the Blockworks Research team and hosts of the upcoming podcast 0xResearch, which airs on November 2nd, 2022. Sam and Dan educate Jack about the latest developments in Ethereum, Cosmos, Bitcoin, Convex Finance, and Polygon, and Jack shares his own views about how a Fed “pivot” might impact asset prices. Filmed on October 26, 2022. Follow Sam Marti...

Daniel Neilson, economist and author of “Minksy” and the Soon Parted newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to update Jack on the European Central Bank’s efforts to control inflation by raising interest rates to the highest level in over a decade. Neilson also shares his views on how the rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar is creating financial instability around the world, and why the Federal...

In October 2021, Lyn Alden, renowned macroeconomic thinker and investor, joined Forward Guidance for its first episode to argue that the sovereign bond market was vulnerable to inflationary pressures. 1 year later, with investors having dumped many trillions worth of government bonds, Alden returns to share her thinking on the long-term debt cycle, the energy markets, and what she sees as growing...

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to ring the alarm bell about the housing and auto markets, which by her reading of the data are quickly deteriorating. Booth notes that while the credit quality of mortgages remain high, the mortgage origination market itself falling sharply and, because of a “biblical” quantity of single-family houses abou...

Richard Field, director of The Institute For Financial Transparency, joins Jack Farley to argue that the Federal Reserve made a huge mistake during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and is making another one now. Field tells Jack he thinks that former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke ought not to have bailed out the major investment banks, but rather should have let banks to realize the full extent of t...

Today Jack welcomes two investors who have navigated the turbulent markets over the past two years very well: Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital and Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman of Praetorian Capital and Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM). Kuppy explains why the Fed’s job is tough and will only get tougher if the price of oil surges once again. Porter and Kuppy tell Jack why they are very bullish on o...

It’s banking season. With the big U.S. banks set to report their third quarter earnings, Jack speaks to veteran banker Chris Whalen about what investors should be looking for. Whalen, author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, argues that while some lines of business, such as investment banking and mortgage origination, have slowed rapidly, the core business of banking (taking in deposits and makin...

Filmed on October 11, 2022. When George Noble, creator of the $NOPE ETF and veteran hedge fund manager, appeared on Forward Guidance in May, he said that equities represented “return free risk” and that the bear market was just getting started. Now that equities are down over 10% since his last appearance, Noble returns to Forward Guidance to tell Jack that he is extremely bearish, and in fact tha...

Today Jack Farley welcomes two financial heavyweights who, in Jack’s view, have predicted and understood this year’s sell-off in bonds more accurately and clearly than anyone else in finance: Harley Bassman, founder of the MOVE Index and managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve. Bassman and Wang agree that it is likely that short-...

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit Greg Steinmetz, investor and financial writer, joins Jack to share insights from his new book, American Rascal: How Jay Gould Built Wall Street’s Biggest Fortune. Steinmetz maps the financial skullduggery of Jay Gould, an infamous “robber baron” and investor whose market manipulations left an indelible mark on...

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research LLC, joins Jack Farley to explain how the meltdown in the British bond (“gilt”) market, which occurred on Wednesday, September 28th, is exposing serious cracks in the plumbing of the financial system. Bianco argues that the Bank of England’s injection of liquidity was nece...

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ Rory Johnston, investor at Price street and author of Commodity Context, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on the price of oil, the commodity at the heart of the turmoil in financial markets and the global economy. Johnston explains why he thi...

With the Fed hiking interest rates rapidly in order to fight inflation, cash is finally earning its highest yield since before the Great Financial Crisis. Peter Crane, President of Crane Data, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, join Jack to discuss how the growing attractiveness of cash might cause markets to “break” as investors pull capital out of risk assets and depl...

When trying to find a culprit for the bear market in stocks this year, investors often point to the surging yields on U.S. Treasury bonds. But that’s only part of the story. Today Jack is lucky to speak to Dr. Aswath Damodaran, professor of valuation and corporate finance at NYU Stern School of Business, who is a pioneer in the field of valuation. Damodaran explains how the intrinsic value of a st...