Forward Guidance

Markets appear frozen, but under the surface, positioning shifts and macro pressures suggest something far more unstable is unfolding. We’re back with the trio dissecting market structure, geopolitical risks, and the growing disconnect between headlines and actual capital flows. We dig into extreme hedging, volatility-driven moves, inflation from energy shocks, rotation into real assets, and loomi...

Policy may be reacting to the wrong signals, as powerful structural forces quietly reshape inflation and the economy beneath the surface. In this episode live from the Digital Asset Summit, we sit down with Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran to unpack his recent dissent and why he believes inflation risks are overstated while the labor market deserves more support. We explore oil shocks vs pol...

Global markets face a fragile moment where a geopolitical shock could collide with already restrictive monetary policy, creating a setup few investors are prepared for. Felix and Quinn sit down with Joseph Wang live at DAS New York to unpack today's chaotic macro landscape, focusing on how energy markets and central bank constraints are increasingly intertwined. We explore oil supply risks, the Fe...

AI is forcing a rethinking of everything from energy and geopolitics to markets and human purpose while raising a deeper question: are we entering an era of abundance or losing control of the systems we’re building? Raoul Pal joins us live from DAS to break down how the AI arms race, liquidity dynamics, and crypto infrastructure are converging into a single macro narrative shaping the next cycle....

In this special episode, we introduce Blockworks’ new investor relations platform for onchain businesses. As institutional capital continues to enter crypto markets, expectations around transparency, standardization, and professionalism are rising. But instead of replicating legacy systems, Blockworks IR takes a different approach, leveraging real-time, onchain data to create a more transparent, d...

We explore a market caught between fragile stability and mounting geopolitical pressure, where central banks, energy shocks, and liquidity constraints collide in unpredictable ways. Quinn and Felix break down the latest Fed meeting, shifting rate expectations, and how global energy disruptions in the Middle East are reshaping macro positioning and investor sentiment. We cover energy shocks, policy...

In this episode, we explore how a sudden oil shock and geopolitical conflict can quickly rewrite the global macro outlook, forcing markets and policymakers into a difficult balancing act between inflation and growth. We sit down with Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds to unpack how the Iran-driven oil shock fits into today’s fragile, savings-driven economy. We discuss oil shocks past and present, poli...

In this episode, we explore the fog of war in markets, where geopolitics and volatility scramble investors’ assumptions. Quinn and Felix break down the macro landscape, analyzing war narratives, energy shocks, and shifting expectations for growth, jobs, and Fed policy. We debate oil spikes, dollar strength, bonds, gold, options positioning, and hidden risks from agriculture to private credit. Enjo...

Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, Eric Wallerstein, explores how shifting geopolitics, Trump-era monetary policy, and structural economic forces are reshaping global macro. We cover tariffs, the dollar, Iran-driven market shocks, Fed balance sheet strategy, and the future of bank regulation. Along the way, we also unpack AI productivity, repo market fragility, and why Latin America could...

This week, we explore how the Iran escalation is stress-testing a fragile, late-cycle financial system already stretched by years of easy liquidity. We examine oil volatility, energy chokepoints, bonds failing as safe havens, and the growing risk that geopolitics could trigger a broader liquidity event. We also discuss AI CapEx, private credit stress, political tensions, and the shifting structure...

In this first episode of Inflection Point, we explore the accelerating convergence between traditional finance and crypto as institutional adoption begins reshaping the foundations of global financial infrastructure. The conversation examines ETFs, DeFi innovation, market structure shifts, institutional flows, and how evolving investor behavior is changing Bitcoin and digital asset markets. Along...

CEO of LB Macro Luigi Buttiglione explores whether the AI-driven productivity boom marks a durable shift in the global economy or the start of new financial imbalances. We discuss U.S. exceptionalism, neutral rates and monetary policy risks, leverage in the AI buildout, public debt sustainability, and Europe’s structural challenges. We also touch on geopolitical supply shocks and what they could m...

We discuss the latest AI productivity disruptions, market reactions to the Citrini piece, NVIDIA earnings, and why capital keeps rotating away from software toward real assets, energy, and commodities. We also explore volatility, policy distortions, and signs of economic reacceleration. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://x.c...

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart discusses the $9 billion crypto ETF exodus, the spaghetti cannon approach to new ETF launches, and why the great sector rotation into energy, materials, and industrials creates the perfect environment for active managers while AI steals crypto’s speculative thunder. We also dig into the risks of levered and covered call ETFs, index rebalancing, and more. Enjoy!...

This week, we're fresh off the inaugural TG Macro Conference in Nashville, unpacking all the biggest takeaways ranging from commodity cycles, gold, miners, oil, rates, and market psychology. We also reflect on trading lessons, risk management, and why in-person macro communities matter more than ever. Enjoy! — Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro Follow Jared: https://x.com/dailydirtnap Follow Quinn...

This week, we break down evidence of a quiet Main Street re-acceleration, exploding market dispersion, AI-driven shifts in correlations, why passive strategies are being disrupted, and where capital is rotating across real assets, rates, and global markets. Enjoy! — FollowTyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forwa...

Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Vincent Deluard explains his three-bubble thesis for 2026, why tax receipts reveal stronger nominal growth than headline data, how fiscal stimulus could fuel a second inflation wave, the Fed’s likely policy path under Kevin Warsh, and why international diversification matters more than ever. Enjoy! __ Follow Vincent: https://x.com/VincentDeluard Follow F...

This week we break down the brutal de-leveraging across markets, why AI CapEx is flipping the old buyback playbook and what it means for Mag7, crypto's bloodbath, the next moves from the Fed and bond market. We also dig into credit risk, factor rotations, the Epstein list, and why gold is sending a louder signal than Bitcoin. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https:...

Joseph Wang joins the show to break down the implications of Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair nomination, debate QE versus balance-sheet restraint, explore shifting views on central bank independence, and unpack what all of this means for rates, markets, and inflation going forward.. Enjoy! __ Follow Joseph: https://x.com/josephwang Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twi...

This week, we discuss a sleepy Fed meeting, why policy signals feel increasingly irrelevant, and what’s really driving the generational metals squeeze. We also dig into AI capex killing buybacks, market structure cracks, the future composition of the Fed, and where traders are finding opportunity as correlations break down. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://...

In this episode, former Managing Director of global macro trading at JPMorgan and bestselling author Alex Gurevich joins the show to discuss his updated book The Next Perfect Trade, unpacking what actually makes a good trade across regimes. We also cover how to express trades, precious metals, carry trades, options simplicity, rates going to zero, and how AI may reshape discretionary macro trading...

This week, we unpack why metals are ripping, how dollar weakness and bond market dysfunction are reshaping macro, and what Japan’s experience signals for the U.S. We also explore extreme metals positioning, dispersion across assets, and what uncertainty around the new Fed Chair means for rates. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: htt...

In this episode, Cem Karsan of Kai Volatility joins the show to discuss the bifurcation of the world economy, inequality & the election cycle, populism during a war-time economy, and the secular market rotation. Enjoy! __ Follow Cem: https://x.com/jam_croissant Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/...

This week, we unpack rising market euphoria, sector rotations and why consumers are suddenly back in focus. We also dig into Fed constraints, Japan’s endgame, Bitcoin waking up, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_  Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp  Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks...

In this episode, Alex Campbell joins the show to discuss the silver trade and structural supply-demand imbalances in metals, AI acceleration and mismatch between CapEx & demand, and the breakdown of globalism. We also dig into the emerging political horseshoe, tariffs, and China’s trade leverage. Enjoy! __ Follow Alex: https://x.com/abcampbell  Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward...