Forward Guidance

Felix Zulauf, renowned macro investor and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to apply his framework for understanding markets to make several big calls for 2024 and beyond. Zulauf expects the rally in stocks and bonds to continue to Q1 2024, but then he argues both will struggle as the liquidity cycle enters its final phase. FIlmed on December 5, 2023. More info about Zulauf Con...

Dr. Barry Eichengreen, George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science at University of California, Berkeley, joins Forward Guidance alongside Joseph Wang, CIO of Monetary Macro and writer at FedGuy.com, to discuss his paper at the Federal Reserve’s 2023 Jackson Hole symposium, “Living with High Public Debt.” Professor Eichengreen also shares his findings on the U...

Anthony Dilweg, veteran real estate investor and Founder & CEO and of Dilweg, joins Forward Guidance to share shocking information from the world of commercial real estate (CRE) in general and office in particular. Dilweg, whose firm owns over 5.5 million square feet of real estate, mostly located in the Southeast United States, argues the challenges CRE will contend with may be greater than those...

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Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data and Marketreader Inc., returns to Forward Guidance to provide a quantitative update on currency and bond markets. Jens makes the case that interest rates all across the yield curve are likely headed lower as the Federal Reserve’s last hike is in the rearview mirror, and he argues that the U.S. dollar could depreciate against “risk-off” currencies such as the Sw...

Nicholas Glinsman, veteran macro investor and co-founder at Malmgren-Glinsman Partners, returns to Forward Guidance to update his views on fixed-income and the economy. He argues that shorting the yen // buy non-yen-denominated assets trade, the “greatest carry trade in the world,” may be unwound as the Bank of Japan steers away from yield curve control and potentially will raise interest rates. T...

Jason Shapiro, veteran trader and founder of Crowded Market Report, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss his philosophy for trading markets. Shapiro explains that while the only position he currently has on is being long the Swiss Franc, he still thinks stocks will likely outperform bonds based on positioning and sentiment. Filmed on November 16, 2023. __ Today’s interview is brought to you by S...

George Robertson joins Forward Guidance to argue that the exceptionally large fiscal stimulus will mean that the economic boom has no end in sight. Once the market realizes there will be no recession, Robertson continues, stocks will soar and the 10-year will rise. Robertson makes the case that the “true” risk-free yield curve is actually not inverted, a claim at odds with common conceptions and o...

Jonny Matthews, founder of Super Macro and former portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and managing director at Citi & Saloman Brothers, joins Forward Guidance to share his view on markets and the economy. Having netted a near 100% return in 2022 with a very large short in Treasury bonds, Matthews has been a proud “recession denier” for several years. While he is now concerned with some worrisome da...

In January of 2023, a time where extreme pessimism on stocks and the economy reigned, Sam Burns, founder of Mill Street Research, shared his bullish outlook on equities with Jack. Now that his prediction has come true, Sam returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he is much less overweight on equities now than in January, but that he remains somewhat constructive on risk assets even as he expect...

On Todays episode, Ben Santonelli Portfolio Manager at Polen Capital joins the show for a discussion on the state of the high yield bond market. Expecting further weakness in the high yield space, but nothing outside the normal credit cycle, Ben explains where he is finding the best opportunities as "debt investors can now generate equity type returns". To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune...

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Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager and private investor, returns to Forward Guidance alongside Blockworks co-founder Michael Ippolito to break down the U.S. Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement (QRA) and Fed’s FOMC meeting that marked the first day of November.  MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, y...

Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on oil, bond supply, the housing market, and the labor market. Having been an underweight bonds and overweight commodities (oil), Pies now views both the 10-Year Treasury and oil as roughly fair value. Pies expects the mortgage buydowns, where homebuilders shield new homebuyers from the cost of higher mortgage rates,...

What you’re about to listen to is a conversation with Jeremy Siegel, distinguished professor of economics at Wharton, Jeremy Schwartz, CIO of WisdomTree, and Dave Goodson, head of securitized products at Voya Financial, and Jack Farley, who was a guest on this episode of the “Behind The Markets” podcast. The first part of this discussion features Professor Siegel’s macro view on bonds, stocks, and...

Jack welcomes Casey Wagner, Blockworks' senior policy correspondent, to recap the wild day of the trial of Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) on October 26th, when SBF at last takes a stance to testify and rebut allegations of financial crimes. Casey Wagner's recent article on the trial: https://blockworks.co/news/sbf-trial-defense-missing-document https://blockworks.co/news/sam-bankman-fried-trial-day-13__...

On todays episode, Craig Manchuck Vice President & Portfolio Manager at Osterweis joins the show for a discussion on the end of the zero interest rate era.  We deep dive into the bond market sell-off over the past 3 years, where to find opportunities in the bond market & the rise of private credit. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! --  Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.c...

On todays episode, Aidan Garrib Global Macro Strategy & Research at PGM Global joins the show for a deep dive into the Chinese economy.  We take a look under the hood into the shadow debt within China, the Governments crackdown on credit & Aidan's outlook for both Chinese equities & more broadly the economy. Finally, we shift over to the U.S and discuss the recent bond market sell-off. Have we see...

Today’s interview is a very special one. Dr. Claudio Borio, renowned economist and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank For International Settlements (BIS), joins Joseph Wang of Fedguy.com and Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on the nature of financial instability and the interplay of monetary policy and fiscal policy. Borio shares insight from recent BIS research on i...

John Toohig, managing director and head of whole loan trading at Raymond Jaymes, and Nathan Stovall, director of the financial institutions research team for S&P Global Market Intelligence, join Jack Farley on Forward Guidance to update listeners on the state of the U.S. banking industry. Surging deposit costs, steadily rising defaults, and a freeze on loan liquidity are just some of the topics di...

Chris Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on the recently released third quarter earnings from banks such as Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citi, Charles Schwab, and Goldman Sachs. Whalen also discusses with Farley companies about to report such as American Express, PNC Financial, Bank of the Ozarks, and Truist. Filmed the afternoon...

Helen Thompson, Professor of Political Economy at the University of Cambridge and author of “Disorder: Hard Times In The 21st Century,” joins Forward Guidance to share her outlook on European energy, the Federal Reserve, financial repression, and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Filmed on October 12, 2023. __ Helen Thompson’s book on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Disorder-Hard-Tim...

On todays episode, Bob Elliott CIO at Unlimited Funds & Mike Green Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management join the show for a discussion on the late cycle slowdown coming throughout the end of 2023 & into 2024.We discuss the impact of passive investing & to what degree earnings really matter in todays modern market structure, the relative value in bonds vs stocks & what delinquencies could...

David Cervantes of Pine Brook Capital Management LLC joins Forward Guidance to share why he faded the recession consensus of 2022, why he decided to short bonds this year, and why as of early October he sees an opportunity to be long the U.S. 10-year Treasury as a tactical long. Filmed on October 5, 2023. Follow David Cervantes on Twitter https://twitter.com/pinebrookcap Follow Jack Farley on Twit...

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Lyn Alden Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy & Author of Broken Money joins the show for a discussion on the recent bond market meltdown before diving deep into why our current monetary order is broken, the pro's vs con's of hard money and how Bitcoin could be a solution to the current monetary disorder. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!...