Flourish Insights

Episode #81: Bond Market Outlook for 2025 In this episode, we’re diving into an exciting development in the fixed-income market: the resurgence of bonds as a compelling investment option for investors. Bond income potential has reached its highest level in decades, offering investors a powerful tool for diversification. Does this mean the long-held mantra of TINA – There Is No Alternative to stock...

Episode #80: Is the S&P 500 Index Too Top-Heavy? In this episode, we’re diving into an important topic that could be impacting your portfolio – concentration risk in the S&P 500. We’ll start with a recap and then discuss ways to balance this risk with small cap and international investments. Listen now! Don't forget to check back for more Flourish Insights with Jay Pluimer and don't forget...

Episode 79: Elections + Economy Do Not Equal Market Returns Do election results and the economy dictate market returns? In this special episode, Jay explains why it makes sense to be an evidence-based investor and shares market data and historical context to explain why the outcome of the election will not necessarily dictate what will happen in the markets. Listen now! Check back for more Flouris...

Episode #78: Federal Reserve Policy in 2024 The Federal Reserve is navigating a complex economic landscape in 2024, and they have made several notable moves this year. Let's review the Fed's stated objectives, the conundrum they continue to deal with, and expectations for the future. Always check back for more Flourish Insights with Jay Pluimer and don't forget to check out our insights blog at ht...

Episode #77: FOMO - Avoid the Investment Trap We're back with a new episode! Join Jay Pluimer as he tackles a common dilemma for many investors – how to handle FOMO, which is short for the Fear Of Missing Out. FOMO can impact investment decisions and potentially create a trap if it leads to making impulsive investment decisions that may not align with your long-term plan. Listen now and learn how...

Episode #76: Fate of the U.S. Dollar The U.S. Dollar has been the global reserve currency since 1944, when the Bretton Woods Agreement solidified the transition from the British Pound to U.S. Dollars. Recently, several clients have asked whether the U.S. Dollar can withstand challenges from growing currencies, like the Chinese Yuan, or from digital currencies. In this episode, we will review the h...

Episode #75: The 2022 Bear Market is Over The bottom of the 2022 bear market happened in mid-October when the market was down 25% on a year-to-date basis, and it was the second time the market hit a 25% dip last year, which is actually better than the average bear market loss of 34%. There has been upward momentum since then, and Jay Pluimer discusses the specifics in this optimistic episode. Want...

Episode #74: Emotional Roller-Coaster Ride With the last market all-time high occurring more than 450 days ago - and another not yet in sight - the stock market has been quite the emotional rollercoaster for investors. Looking at history, though, shows that time favors the patient investor. Jay Pluimer shares tips on how to weather the ride back to the top in this optimistic episode. Always check...

Episode #73: If it Bleeds, it Leads Media companies are in the business of making money, and their profit motives tend to supersede other agendas. However, we may have reached a saturation point when it comes to negative financial news stories, with some investors having a skewed view of market performance that is not based in reality. It may be time for fewer flashy headlines and more context, an...

Episode #72: "Mr. Worldwide" is Back For the past 14 years, U.S. stocks have outperformed international stocks by a wide margin. However, things have begun to change over the last several months. Although it’s too early to tell at this point whether or not this trend change is sustainable, there are reasons to favor International stocks in the current market environment. Always check back next wee...

Episode #71: The Debt Ceiling Question The U.S. Government hit its legal debt limit of $31.4 trillion in debt on January 19, 2023, and we're getting closer and closer to June - when the 6-month extension expires. So, will Congress take measures to reset the limit? Will we have another close call? What does it all mean for the markets? I answer these questions and more in this episode. Want more Fl...

Episode #70: Dividends Reward Discipline The traditional approach to dividends is that they are an important supplement to generating income and can be used to support a steady withdrawal rate in retirement. An updated approach is that dividends are an important aspect of total return and help grow a portfolio through reinvestment. We’re exploring this topic today, using historical data from the S...

Episode #69: “Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results” This common client disclosure is typically meant as a warning that positive results are not always sustainable, but what if we look at it from a different angle? Just because 2022 was a bad year for the markets, it doesn't necessarily mean the same will happen in 2023. So, let’s talk through what we might expect from a typical 60/40...

Episode #68: 2022 - A Year of Hard Lessons Much of 2022 gave us market events that had a negative impact on performance - and created headlines focused on short-term market movements. However, long-term investors can learn a lot from the past 12 months, too. In this episode, we’ll review stats and facts with an eye to the future to help you make smart investment decisions in 2023 and beyond. Alway...

Episode #67: Bonds Aweigh There are two major questions many investors are asking with regard to the bond market these days, and we’ll examine both in this episode. We’ll also discuss the impact of inflation, provide historical context, and share the Flourish Wealth Management approach to client portfolios within this context. Want more Flourish Insights with Jay Pluimer? Check out our insights bl...

Episode #66: Recession-ish The U.S. economy shrank in the first two quarters of 2022, and we met the historical definition of a recession. However, there is an ongoing debate about whether we’re really in one. So, are we in a recession? Is there a soft landing somewhere in our future? Or are we occupying an in-between space at the moment? Tune in as we discuss all this and more. Always check back...

Episode #65: Bear Hunting We hit a milestone in mid-June when the stock market settled into Bear Market territory by dropping over 20% from its highs. Though it wasn’t unexpected - or a market anomaly - it’s still painful for investors. In this episode, we will be discussing what brought us into Bear Territory, what it will take to recover, and what timelines might be involved. Always check back f...

Episode #64: Tech Wreck Over the last few weeks, we’ve experienced perhaps the most significant market decline of 2022, and many investors see nothing but a bleak outlook ahead. Tech stocks, in particular, have taken a beating. However, analyzing statistics about drawdowns and looking to history as a guide is helpful in understanding why it’s happening - and why there’s still a great probability f...

Episode #63: Silver Linings The current economic environment is full of dark clouds, and it’s all too easy to focus only on the negative headlines. Although we’re in a tough place at the moment, investors should not lose hope for a better tomorrow. There is optimism for the future, and it’s based on the predictive power of the stock market. Always check back for more Flourish Insights with Jay Plu...

Episode #62: The Next Recession Many analysts and economists have been confidently predicting that a recession is imminent in the United States. They cite factors like an inverting yield curve and sticky inflation with persistent supply chain issues. In this episode, we’ll summarize the various reasons people think a recession is imminent, and use historical evidence and trends to provide addition...

Episode 61: World in Crisis Over the past few years, the world has collectively struggled with various crises all demanding our attention. From a global pandemic to rising concerns over climate change to a war in Ukraine that's leaving us all holding our breath - it's hard not to be scared over current world events. As an investor, a world in crisis can become even scarier when we begin seeing cha...

Episode #60: Episode Title The Federal Reserve is returning to the forefront of conversations in an economy that has largely recovered from COVID, and it’s making a U-Turn. Unlike last Saturday’s Super Bowl, where there could only be one winner, the goal is to have everybody win as the Fed starts to walk the tightrope between inflation and deflation by increasing interest rates. Want more Flourish...

Episode #59: Avoid Investor Complacency In our last episode, we discussed expectations for 2022 - including higher volatility than we’ve seen in the last few years. We’re seeing it already, so this episode will delve further into why we expected this to happen. We’ll talk about inflation, back-to-back years of strong market performance, and the Federal Reserve. We’ll also discuss why it’s importan...

It’s a new year, and we’ve been busy evaluating market dynamics in order to make projections about what might happen next. We follow an evidence-based investment approach here at Flourish, and it helps us understand what is happening in the markets today so that we can effectively position client portfolios for 20+ years into the future, while also incorporating what we expect to happen in the nex...

In episodes 21 and 22, we reflected on 2020 and shared expectations for 2021. I’m happy to say we got some predictions right, but I’m not surprised we got a lot wrong, too. It always bears repeating - you can’t time the market, and that’s never an approach we try to take here at Flourish. As of this recording, it’s safe to say the stock market exceeded expectations for the year, and we’re digging...