Sergio Stieben
Financial Forensics: The Due Diligence Files
Forensic dissection of capital markets collapses. Not headlines — mechanisms. How money moved. Where structures broke. T1 — Full autopsy. The collapse, the actors, the moment nobody stopped it. T2 — GP/LP room. 3 red flags in the documents. Due diligence questions. Active parallels in deals running today. For allocators, GPs, and fund professionals. Hosted by Sergio Stieben — 15 years in GP/LP relations, cross-border finance US-LatAm-Europe. Data Sheets + early access to LiveDealScreen — live case database and pattern-matching tool for GPs and LPs: https://risk-pattern-scan.lovable.app
Author
Sergio Stieben
Category
Podcast website
Latest episode
Jul 10, 2026
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Episodes
Waste Management 1998 : Audit Capture & Depreciation Estimate Manipulation │GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags │EP63 T2 23.05.2026 16:12
Audit independence is not a relationship. It is a structural condition — specifically, the condition in which the auditor's incentive to require management to correct an identified misstatement is not compromised by the financial value of the broader relationship with the client. At Waste Management, Arthur Andersen earned $7.5 million in audit fees over seven years and $17.8 million in non-au...
Bre-X Minerals 1997 : The World's Largest Gold Deposit. One Geologist. One Preparation Shack. No One Watching — EP62 T1 22.05.2026 15:55
In 1993, Bre-X Minerals paid $80,000 for exploration rights to a property near the Busang River in East Kalimantan, Indonesia. Four years later, it had a reported resource of 71 million ounces of gold — which would have made Busang one of the ten largest deposits in history — and a market capitalization of $6 billion CAD. Fidelity Investments, Invesco, JP Morgan, and pension funds across North Ame...
Bre-X Minerals 1997 : Chain of Custody Failure & Physical Asset Verification Fraud │GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags │EP62 T2 22.05.2026 15:27
This GP/LP technical episode dissects the chain of custody framework for resource investments in full institutional detail: what the chain requires at each stage, where the Bre-X structure placed its single unmonitored point of control, and how Kilborn Engineering's technically rigorous resource estimate was built on assay data fabricated at the one step Kilborn never observed. We analyze the...
Olympus Corporation 2011 : He Was CEO for 13 Days. Then He Read the Acquisition Files. Then He Was Fired — EP61 T1 22.05.2026 15:46
In October 2011, Michael Woodford became CEO of Olympus Corporation — one of Japan's most prestigious industrial companies, with a hundred-year history and a ten-billion-dollar market capitalization. Thirteen days later, the board voted fourteen to one to terminate him. His offense: he had read the accounts. Specifically, he had read the acquisition files. And he had found a $687 million advis...
Olympus Corporation 2011 : Tobashi Scheme & Goodwill Manipulation as Loss Concealment │GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags│EP61 T2 22.05.2026 15:05
This GP/LP technical episode dissects the tobashi mechanism in full institutional detail: how unconsolidated offshore vehicles absorbed Olympus's unrealized investment losses, how acquisition overpayments funded the vehicles' retirement, and how the resulting goodwill — recorded at inflated acquisition prices and written down through normal impairment — converted a billion-dollar loss into...
Banco Ambrosiano 1982 : God's Banker Was Found Hanging Under Blackfriars Bridge With Bricks in His Pockets — EP60 T1 21.05.2026 16:07
On the morning of June 18, 1982, a postman crossing Blackfriars Bridge in London looked down at the Thames and saw Roberto Calvi hanging from the scaffolding beneath the bridge. He was wearing a suit. His pockets contained bricks, lumps of concrete, and thirteen thousand dollars in three currencies. He had a forged passport. The Metropolitan Police ruled it suicide. 🔴 Every corporate failure leav...
Banco Ambrosiano 1982 : Comfort Letter as Collateral Fabrication & Jurisdictional Arbitrage with Sovereign Immunity | GP/LP Analysis — 3 Red Flags | EP60 T2 21.05.2026 14:24
A comfort letter is not a guarantee. It is a document that provides institutional credibility without legal enforceability — its value is entirely a function of the reputation of the entity that signs it and the willingness of the recipient to accept reputation as a substitute for legal recourse. When the entity signing the comfort letter is a sovereign institution that cannot be compelled to prod...
LIBOR 2012 : Every Morning at 11 AM, 16 Banks Sent a Number. Nobody Checked. $800 Trillion Priced Off the Result — EP59 T1 21.05.2026 14:24
Every morning at eleven AM London time, sixteen banks sent a number to the British Bankers' Association. The number was supposed to answer one question: at what rate could your bank borrow money in the interbank market today? The BBA averaged the answers and published the result as LIBOR. Eight hundred trillion dollars in financial contracts — mortgages, student loans, interest rate swaps, cor...
LIBOR 2012 : Self-Reported Benchmark Capture & Honor System Verification Failure | GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags | EP59 T2 21.05.2026 15:11
A benchmark rate calculated from self-reported, unverified submissions is not a market price. It is an opinion poll of the institutions whose trading positions are directly affected by the result of the poll. LIBOR was that structure applied to the foundational pricing reference for eight hundred trillion dollars in global financial contracts — and it produced the outcome that structure always pro...
Silicon Valley Bank 2023 : Solvent on Thursday. $42 Billion Gone by Friday. A Group Chat Ran the Bank — EP58 T1 20.05.2026 14:26
On Thursday, March 9, 2023, Silicon Valley Bank was solvent. Its capital ratios were above regulatory minimums. Its loan book was not impaired. By Friday afternoon, forty-two billion dollars had left. The FDIC seized it before Monday. What happened in those thirty-six hours was not a discovery of hidden losses. The risk was in the annual report — disclosed, audited, filed. The investors who moved...
Silicon Valley Bank 2023: HTM Duration Mismatch & Social Media Bank Run Acceleration | GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags | EP58 T2 20.05.2026 15:37
This GP/LP technical episode dissects the SVB failure from the institutional perspective — the HTM accounting classification that deferred a $15 billion unrealized loss past the regulatory capital calculation, and the deposit run coordination speed that made the deferral unsustainable in thirty-six hours. We analyze the two-variable interaction at the center of the failure: the HTM duration mismat...
Credit Suisse 2023 : $17 Billion in Bonds. Not One Payment Missed. FINMA Wrote Them to Zero Anyway — EP57 T1 20.05.2026 14:46
On March 19, 2023, Credit Suisse's AT1 bondholders lost seventeen billion Swiss francs. The bonds were performing. The coupon was current. The borrower had not missed a single payment. FINMA, the Swiss regulator, instructed the write-down as a structural condition of the UBS acquisition — and the equity, which by every precedent in European bank resolution would have been wiped first, survived...
Credit Suisse 2023 : Reputation Run Mechanics & AT1 Contractual Wipeout | GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags | EP57 T2 20.05.2026 16:11
This GP/LP technical episode dissects the Credit Suisse failure from the institutional investor perspective — the reputation run mechanics that converted franchise credibility into a funding liability, and the AT1 contractual architecture whose ambiguity the Swiss resolution exposed. We analyze the two-engine funding structure: wealth management deposits cross-subsidizing investment bank funding c...
Luckin Coffee 2020 : 1,418 Investigators. 11,000 Hours of Video Surveillance. One Database Nasdaq Never Saw — EP56 T1 19.05.2026 15:46
It took ninety-two full-time investigators, fourteen hundred part-time staff, six hundred and twenty stores, and eleven thousand hours of video surveillance to prove that a publicly listed company was lying about how many cups of coffee it was selling. On April 2, 2020, Luckin Coffee admitted that its COO and his team had fabricated $310 million in revenue. The stock fell 81% in a single day. This...
Luckin Coffee 2020 : VIE Audit Gap & Circular Related-Party Revenue Fabrication | GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags | EP56 T2 19.05.2026 16:12
.This GP/LP technical episode dissects the two-database architecture in full detail — how the operations team maintained one database with real transactions and a second with fabricated ones on top, and why EY Hua Ming's audit process could only review the second. We analyze the three simultaneous fraud channels and their mechanics, the expense inflation that completed the internal consistency...
Carbon Credit Fraud 2024 : Six Million Fake Credits. The DOJ Called It Fraud. The Registry Called It Verified — EP55 T1 19.05.2026 16:41
In October 2024, the DOJ, CFTC, and SEC filed simultaneous charges against CQC Impact Investors. The allegation: six million fraudulent carbon credits, sold to BP and Shell, backed by cookstoves in rural Malawi and Zambia that were broken, abandoned, or never installed. The internal email that summarized the situation: actual emissions reductions were roughly half of what CQC had promised. The CEO...
Carbon Credit Fraud 2024: Certification Capture & Unobservable Asset Verification Failure | GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags | EP55 T2 19.05.2026 16:39
This GP/LP technical episode dissects the structural conflict embedded in the voluntary carbon credit market's economics: the project developer pays the certifier, the certifier's revenue depends on issuing certifications, the registry generates fee income from listings, and the buyer has a compliance need the credit satisfies regardless of whether the underlying reduction was real. We ana...
Abraaj Group 2018 : $13.6 Billion. The Middle East's Biggest PE Firm. LP Capital Used to Pay the GP's Grocery Bills — EP54 T1 18.05.2026 14:45
In January 2018, Arif Naqvi was on stage at Davos with Bill Gates. Eight days later, forensic accountants were looking for $230 million in LP capital that had vanished from a healthcare fund. This is the financial autopsy of Abraaj Group — the largest private equity collapse in emerging markets history. In this episode, we dissect the LP capital commingling mechanism that turned a ring-fenced heal...
Abraaj Group 2018: LP Capital Commingling & GP Working Capital Misappropriation | GP/LP Analysis — 3 Red Flags | EP54 T2 18.05.2026 15:36
This .GP/LP technical episode dissects the two-entity architecture of private equity — fund vehicle versus management entity — and explains precisely how the gap between fund-level reporting and GP-level financial reality enabled Abraaj's commingling. We analyze the SEC amended complaint line by line: Naqvi's personal signatory authority, the $100M March 2017 transfer, the internal email t...
Peregrine Financial 2012 : He Faked the Bank Statements for 20 Years. The Regulator Never Called the Bank — EP53 T1 18.05.2026 15:03
In July 2012, Russell Wasendorf Senior sat in his car with a confession in his pocket. It began: "I have committed fraud. For this I feel constant and intense guilt." The fraud had been running for twenty years. Two hundred million dollars in client funds were missing. The mechanism was a scanner, Microsoft Paint, and a post office box he had rented under a name that resembled US Bank...
Peregrine Financial 2012 : Bank Statement Fabrication & Source Independence Failure │GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags│EP53 T2 18.05.2026 15:35
The NFA staff who examined Peregrine Financial Group for twenty years were not negligent. They followed the procedures. The procedures were wrong — not because they were badly designed for the risks they were modeling, but because they were not designed to detect the specific risk that Wasendorf exploited: fabrication of the documents that the verification process treated as evidence. A verificati...
MF Global 2011 : $1.6 Billion in Client Funds Went Missing. Nobody Decided to Take It. That Was the Problem — EP52 T1 17.05.2026 14:39
In October 2011, MF Global filed for bankruptcy with $1.6 billion in client funds missing. It was the eighth largest bankruptcy in US history. The funds were not stolen in the way Madoff stole. They were used — as collateral, to cover margin calls, through intraday transfers from the segregated pool that were supposed to be reversed before close of business and were not, because the firm capital t...
MF Global 2011 : Rehypothecation Under Liquidity Stress & The Conditional Custody Guarantee │GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags│EP52 T2 17.05.2026 15:19
🔴 Every corporate failure leaves behind a pattern. FFL Risk Pattern Scan provides access to a searchable library of documented corporate collapses, frauds and restructurings that can be filtered by geography, sector, collapse mechanism and fraud vector. Compare live opportunities against historical cases using pattern matching and risk assessment tools designed for investors, lenders and deal tea...
Allied Irish Banks 2002 : Fictitious Hedge Documentation & Verification Function Degradation │GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags│EP51 T2 17.05.2026 17:21
. This episode builds the GP/LP operational due diligence framework for trading operations: the source of the confirmation matters more than the existence of the confirmation process, the distinction between independent verification and document processing is testable in a two-hour operational review, and the three features of Rusnak's options structure that made the fraud durable — instrument...
Allied Irish Banks 2002 : He Didn't Hide the Position. He Built the Evidence That It Didn't Need Hiding — EP51 T1 17.05.2026 15:35
In 1995, Barings Bank collapsed because a trader controlled both the trading book and the back office. The industry spent the following year producing reports. Banks segregated trading from back office. The lesson was documented and filed. Seven years later, Allied Irish Banks lost $691 million to a trader in Baltimore who had read the same reports — and found the gap between the organizational fi...
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