Finance AM

Stronger US inflation indicators initially helped the US dollar, but upbeat sentiment in equity markets (S&P500 +1.4%) reversed the move.

Disappointing US GDP data helped push bond yields lower, which encouraged equity markets (S&P500 +1.2%). The US dollar is slightly lower.

The Fed hiked by 75bp as expected, but signalled a slowdown in tightening pace. That lifted US equities (S&P500 +2.7%) and depressed the US dollar and bond yields.

US equity markets adopted a more risk averse posture ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision, Walmart’s guidance reinforcing the mood. The S&P500 is down 1.2%, and the defensive US dollar is higher.

Markets appeared to be in waiting mode, with the Fed decision and key US data released later this week. The S&P500 is up 0.1%, bond yields are slightly higher following hawkish ECB comments, and the US dollar is slightly lower.

Global PMI data disappointed, weighing on sentiment. The S&P500 closed down 0.9% and bond yields fell. Currencies were mixed.

The ECB hiked by 50bp – more than expected, but bond yields in Europe and the US fell on recession concerns. The USD is only slightly lower, while the S&P500 is up 1.0%.

Sentiment was mixed. Italian political woes and Russian gas curtailment threats initially weighed, but upbeat US earnings reports helped a rebound. The S&&P500 is up 0.8%, bond yields are slightly higher, while the USD is slightly higher.

Sentiment was upbeat, buyers emerging to push the S&P500 up 2.6%, despite little fresh news of note. Bond yields rose and the US dollar fell, both following the risk-seeking theme on the day. Speculation the ECB could hike by 50bp tomorrow increased.

US equities fell slightly, the S&P500 down 0.9%. Bond yields, though, rose, and the US dollar is lower. There was little new of note.

US equities were helped by mostly supportive economic data, the S&P500 closing up 1.9%. The defensive US dollar fell, while bond yields were little changed.

US Fedspeak cooled market expectations of a 100bp rate hike later this month. The US dollar pared earlier gains. The S&P500 is down 0.3%, dented by company earnings reports.

US inflation data was stronger than expected, raising concerns the Fed will hike faster and thereby increase the risk of a recession. The Bank of Canada hiked by 100bp, exceeding expectations. Currencies were volatile but are little changed, while short bond yields are higher and long yields are lower. The S&P500 is down 0.5%.

Bond yields and the US dollar were contained ahead of today’s important US inflation data, but the S&P500 is down 0.9%, and major commodities are lower.

Risk aversion permeated markets. The S&P500 is down 1.2%, bond yields are lower, and the defensive US dollar is higher.

There were mixed reactions to the solid US jobs data. Bond yields rose as recession risks receded, but the US dollar fell slightly. Equities gyrated between initial losses and then gains, the S&P500 closing down 0.1%.

Recession fears appeared to ease, despite no major news for markets to digest. The S&P500 is up 1.5%, bond yields and commodities are higher, and commodity currencies outperformed.

US bond yields rose sharply, partly helped by data which soothed recession concerns as well as hawkish Fed minutes. The US dollar also rose, and the S&P500 is up 0.4%.

US markets returned from the long weekend and continued to price in recession risks. Commodities are sharply lower, the defensive US dollar is higher, and bond yields are lower.

Markets were subdued during the US holiday. The Eurostoxx50 closed up 0.1%, S&P500 futures are down 0.3%. Bond yields rose slightly, while currencies were mixed.

Recession fears remained the main driver on Friday, US bond yields falling sharply after a disappointing US manufacturing survey. That also caused the US dollar to pare earlier gains. US equities curiously closed higher, the S&P500 up 1.1%.

Risk aversion continued, the S&P500 down 0.9% and bond yields lower. The US dollar did not benefit, though, weighed down by lacklustre economic data.

The risk averse mood persisted in Europe and the US, the S&P500 down 0.2%. The defensive US dollar rose, and bond yields fell. US GDP and German inflation undershot expectations.

Sentiment flipped to a downbeat stance, the S&P500 down 2.0% and the defensive US dollar higher. Bond yields retraced initial gains. US consumer confidence fell.

There were mixed performances among asset classes amid quarter end portfolio rebalancing. The S&P500 is down 0.5% and bond yields are higher, while currencies were mixed.