Fantasy Football for Winners

Why the 2025 Arizona Cardinals are a good example of how to identify undervalued and overvalued players.

What’s the best way to offer a trade that’s both advantageous and not “egregiously unfair?”

Amari Cooper is back with the Raiders, and the fantasy implications are bigger than many managers realize.

Zero-RB drafters do what works for them. RB-heavy drafters do what works for them. But neither is empirically “better.”

It’s hard to get rattled in a fantasy draft if you have a round-by-round game plan with more contingencies than you’ll ever need.

Some NFL trades expand the pool of realistic high-upside fantasy players. Here’s why the Brian Robinson trade narrows that pool.

Examining the relevance of older WRs pretty consistently performing worse than their preseason ADPs.

I’ve been tracking ADP versus fantasy performance for about 200 players per year since 2012. What is the probability that an undraftable QB or TE will finish in the top 12 or even top 6?

Why is it often difficult to predict which DSTs will finish near the top? Here’s one big reason why, based on homegrown research.

One of my homemade spreadsheets details the before and after of every NFL regular season shutout loss since 2000. The results have actionable fantasy Implications. In this episode, I discuss some of them.

What do Jayden Daniels and Carson Wentz have in common? Not much, except they both were drafted #2 overall, helped lead their franchise to success not seen in years, and crushed it at/near the start of their career. Many other young, promising QBs have experienced significant drop-offs in their second or third seasons—and sometimes for many seasons after. How confident should we be in Daniels’ gre...

The once dominant Dez Bryant, Odell Beckham Jr., and Michael Thomas were never the same after their age-26 seasons. Last year, the 11 WRs with the most receiving yards were 25 or younger. Should dynasty managers be concerned that some of today’s greatest young WR’s might not be startable in one or two years?

Only 10 of the 20 highest-priced players in 2024 fantasy auctions met or exceeded expectations. Here’s how to optimize value and minimize risk.

With reports that Caleb Williams and his offense are struggling a bit in camp, should managers be concerned? Or is this like Jared Goff circa 2022, before the Lions’ offense started clicking?

Some dynasty RBs are worth what you invest in them. Many “great” RBs are not.

Why is Jonathan Taylor overvalued and rookie backfield teammate DJ Giddens undervalued?

This season, AFC teams will have one more home game than NFC teams. History shows that will impact macro-level fantasy production.

Why “Check out the seven wide receivers I just drafted!“ is often one of the saddest statements in fantasy.

The Madden Curse is real, but it’s not a curse. Here’s why it was predictable that five of the six RBs featured on EA Sports’ Madden NFL video game regressed and/or had serious injuries right after appearing on the cover . . . and why Saquon Barkley is similarly high-risk.

On episode 2, I discussed the strange impact of Mike Williams’ retirement on Trey Harris‘s and Quentin Johnston‘s ADPs. Keenan Allen‘s recent arrival makes this story even stranger.

Why are ADPs based more on last year’s stats than on context, and what does this tell us about Tua Tagovailoa’s (QB20 ADP) actual value?

Since 2002, the average rookie scoring ranking for 7th-round running backs is RB123. That excludes all the 7th-round rookies who don’t even see game action. So should managers buy into the hype surrounding Jacory Croskey-Merritt (or any other 7th rounder)?

Why does the market still view Travis Kelce as a near-elite fantasy TE?

Two summers ago, Kadarius Toney had plenty of hype. After Week 1, in hindsight, his career was effectively over. This summer, Jaydon Blue has received negative and positive reviews. How should managers react?

Why is Devonta Smith a clear bargain at his WR25 ADP?