xpectedowngoals
Expected Own Goals
EVERYONE ANALYZES WOMEN'S SPORTS Evan Davis and Eric Morgan are best friends who love each other. But they love women's soccer more. Every week, the guys sit down to explore the tactical and analytical sides of the women's game, covering the NWSL, USWNT, WSL, Women's Champions Leauge, Liga MX Femenil, and beyond. No stone is left unturned as they seek to learn more and more about how women's soccer is played, who's good, who's not, and who is going to win it all.
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xpectedowngoals
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Podcast website
Latest episode
Jul 10, 2026
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Episodes
NWSL Week 20: Are Gotham on the Ascent? Are San Diego on the Decline? 16.09.2025 1:00:21
Savannah DeMelo's collapse on Lumen Field on Sunday quickly became the most important story in the NWSL. DeMelo was responsive and alert before she was stretchered off the field, and thankfully, the league tried to learn from their poor handling of the Savy King incident by suspending the match. The guys offer some quick thoughts on DeMelo as a player, and what has made her special throughout her...
EMERGENCY POD: Jaedyn Shaw to Gotham for $1.25 million?!?!? 09.09.2025 19:00
Ah, this reminds us of our early days: Gotham FC drops a massive, shocking transfer for a U.S. women's national team player, bolstering their galácticos reputation. This time, Jaedyn Shaw heads north to Harrison, New Jersey for $1.25 million in intra-league transfer funds, the biggest intra-league transfer in NWSL history. Why didn't it work for Shaw in North Carolina? Does this deal set up the Co...
NWSL Week 19: How Utah, Houston & Chicago Have Found Rich Veins of Form 09.09.2025 41:58
Though all three are still firmly planted in the bottom half of the table, the fortunes of the Utah Royals, Chicago Stars, and Houston Dash have changed considerably over the past few weeks. They produced emphatic results over the weekend (including Chicago's best xG performance in three years), and the guys dig into what has changed for each club since the end of the international break. Can Hous...
EMERGENCY POD: Alyssa Thompson's transfer fee was HOW much?!? 05.09.2025 20:15
We interrupt your regularly scheduled programming to scratch our heads at the $1.3 million (or almost-$1.5 million, or $1.65 million) transfer fee paid by Chelsea F.C.W. to Angel City for Alyssa Thompson's services. How did a 20-year-old U.S. women's national teamer with tremendous upside and more than three years left on her contract move for not even a world-record fee? The guys puzzle over what...
NWSL Week 18: Angel City Win the Battle Against Bay FC, but Did They Lose the War for Alyssa Thompson? 03.09.2025 1:11:24
A very intense Labor Day shaped up for the NWSL. After the guys whip around the league, they drill down into Angel City's first-ever results against Bay FC, a 2-1 victory at BMO Stadium. Then, they explore Alyssa Thompson's likely transfer to Chelsea. What do we know right now? How likely was it that Thompson wanted the move? What makes this a good deal for Angel City? And what could make this a d...
NWSL Week 17: San Diego and Louisville, Fully Transformed 26.08.2025 1:02:46
The NWSL acted semi-normal this week, so we can concentrate on the actual soccer. The guys whip around the league and touch on the Morgan Gautrat loan to Newcastle before examining Racing Louisville's 1-0 squeaker against the San Diego Wave. What have these two teams already accomplished this year, and what more can we expect from them in the weeks to come? Everything's coming up roses for Jonas E...
NWSL Week 16: Draws, Heat, Misery Define the Weekend's Action 19.08.2025 51:24
RECORDED BEFORE THE ALYSSA NAEHER - LIZBETH OVALLE INSANITY For the second week in a row, we do not have a featured game of the week. That's because external forces have pushed the soccer out of the spotlight. Both Kansas City - Orlando and Gotham - Houston experienced triple-digit heat indexes at kickoff, and for the third straight weekend, the NWSL saw more than half its fixtures end in draws, a...
NWSL Week 15: Derbies, Oppressive Heat, and Unpacking the Sean Nahas Firing 12.08.2025 59:24
For the first time in over six years, we saw the second straight weekend where more than half the games ended in a draw. Oppressive heat? Weather delays? Who's to say. The guys whip around the league and tease out the storylines from all seven matches. Then, they get into Sean Nahas's firing from the North Carolina Courage. They lay out the entire timeline beat for beat, and see what conclusions,...
NWSL Week 14: Rodman and Sentnor and Copa América NARRATIVE CHAOS 05.08.2025 59:11
The NWSL is back! And boy oh boy not much happened, until everything did. The guys dissect the blockbuster transfer of Ally Sentnor to the Kansas City Current (01:48) then whip around the rest of the league (26:41) before hitting their featured game of the week, the Washington Spirit's 2-1 victory over the Portland Thorns. (34:28) There's tactics, and then there's Trinity Rodman scoring in her fir...
Euros Final Recap: It's (Sorta) Coming Home, as England Best Spain on Penalties 29.07.2025 45:15
After more than three weeks and 31 games, we have a new Euros champion and...it's the old champion! England have won their second trophy thanks to some real fortune, opportunistic chance-taking, and another intense penalty shootout. The guys pick through everything England and Spain had to offer, and how this sets up both sides for the World Cup in 2027. Plus, they analyze a heartbreaking WAFCON f...
Euros Quarterfinal Recap: England and Germany Miraculously Go Through, Spain and Italy Await 21.07.2025 53:26
Spain took care of business against Switzerland. Italy exposed Norway's weaknesses. Sweden, England, France and a 10-player Germany chucked haymakers at each other for a combined 240+ minutes and two insane penalty shootouts. In the end, it is England and Germany who walk away and move on to the Euros semifinals. The guys take all four games apart and preview this week's two semifinal contests. Su...
Euros Group Stage Recap: Sweden, France Top Groups, England Still with Much to Do 15.07.2025 52:26
The group stage of UEFA Women's Euro 2025 has officially concluded, and France is looking pretty unstoppable. Are they? Les Bleues took the Netherlands apart 5-2 to sit at the group D summit, and a weakened Germany await in the next round. Sweden were already in the driver's seat before Carlotta Wamser's red card, but they put the Germans away with ease 4-1 and now face England in the quarterfinal...
Euros Group Stage, Round 1: France Put England to the Sword 08.07.2025 1:06:31
The first round of the group stage at UEFA Women's Euro 2025 is in the books! Evan and Eric round up all the action, plus the second round from groups A & B, to marvel at Spain's demolition of two minnows, Iceland's unjust elimination, and Norway's ability to keep getting away with this. Then, the guys dive into the group stage's marquee matchup, France's 2-1 defeat of England. How did things go s...
UEFA Women's Euro Preview, Pt. 2: Groups B + C 02.07.2025 54:44
Part 2 of our Euros preview attacks groups B and C. Spain and Germany are the group favorites. Could Sweden pip the Germans to the top group spot? Does Denmark stand a chance on the back of Pernille Harder? Why do people keep thinking Portugal are dark horses? And won't someone please think of the poor Italians? Plus, our predictions for the knockout stage! Join our Patreon to get all of our excl...
UEFA Women's Euro Preview, Pt. 1: Groups A + D 02.07.2025 48:23
The Euros are here! Kicking off Wednesday in Switzerland, 16 teams vie for the biggest trophy in European women's football. The guys analyze Groups A and D in part 1 of their two-part preview. How does Switzerland compare to previous tournament hosts? Is Iceland the tournament's dark horse? Can the Netherlands weather their injury worries? What's going on with France's lineup? Could England really...
USWNT Recap: For the Irish, Denver & Cincinnati are Houses of Pain 01.07.2025 37:16
The USWNT tore off a couple friendlies over the weekend, hammering the Republic of Ireland 8-0 across matches in Commerce City and Cincinnati. There were few learnings to speak of, but that doesn't mean the guys don't try to dig a few out. Most importantly: will anyone become the new left back? Anyone???? Join our Patreon to get all our exclusive bonus content! Art by Eli Elbogen Music by Devin D...
NWSL Week 13: We Need to Talk About Utah 24.06.2025 1:01:09
We've reached the halfway point of the 2025 NWSL regular season, and though we've been putting it off as long as possible, we have no choice but to discuss the Utah Royals. After a quick whiparound (2:19) and an analysis of the Seattle Reign's side of their 4-1 victory in Sandy (25:38), the guys get to the state of the Royals organization. How have they managed to be worse this season than during...
NWSL Week 12 Recap: Bay's Home Loss to Orlando; plus, Angel City Head Coach Alex Straus! 17.06.2025 1:13:32
Another week, another slightly chaotic result. Bay FC lost 1-0 at home to the Orlando Pride, but not without producing some scintillating stuff in the game-state-driven closing stage of the match. Might Bay be turning the corner in spite of the result? Might Orlando be just fine despite some regression from last year? The guys puzzle it over (21:06). Then, they chat with new Angel City FC head coa...
NWSL Week 11: San Diego Returns to Baseline, Seattle Sacrifices to Sufferball Gods 10.06.2025 59:45
NWSL clubs came out of the international break a little rickety, and with plenty of fire. The guys whip around the league to hit the officiating controversy with Gotham, puzzle over Alex Straus's first game with Angel City, and debate Louisville's future (1:51). Then, they peel back the layers of a grubby contest in San Diego between the Wave and the Seattle Reign. Has San Diego been getting lucky...
USWNT Recap: Two More First Caps, Plus NWSL Messiness 05.06.2025 59:34
The U.S. women's national team put two more friendlies in the books. What can a 7-0 aggregate scoreline against China and Jamaica really tell us about the side, two years out from the 2027 World Cup? Has Phallon Tullis-Joyce grabbed the starting keeper job? Did Kerry Abello prove herself enough to be called back in? Could Alyssa Thompson even be the better option than Mallory Swanson on the left w...
NWSL Week 10: Understanding the Sam Laity "Era" of Angel City 27.05.2025 59:09
Six games, 27 goals: 4.5 goals per game this weekend marks the second-highest per-game goal total over a single NWSL matchweek in league history. It's been nearly four years since a matchweek saw no clean sheets recorded. It was goals galore! The guys touch on Gotham's CONCACAF W Champions Cup victory in Mexico (00:43), then whip around the goalscoring bananza across five other NWSL matches (02:3...
NWSL Week 9: HEAT CHECK Part II 21.05.2025 1:16:46
The numbers? Still Sticky! But before they dive back in, Eric and Evan briefly discuss the latest USWNT Roster and one very notable omission (hint: it rhymes Shmorbin Shmalbert). Then, the guys are joined once more by Kim McCauley of the Guardian to finish their review of the data, check their sometimes questionable priors (Utah), and call out a few of their own goals (again, Utah). Teams featured...
NWSL Week 9: HEAT CHECK Part I 20.05.2025 1:01:43
The numbers are sticky (or, at least, stickier)! Finally, we have a clearer picture of which teams are contenders and which teams still have some (or a lot of) work to do. The guys are joined by Kim McCauley of the Guardian to sort through the data, check their priors, and call out a few of their own goals. Teams featured in Part I: Chicago Stars (2:03) Houston Dash (9:22) Portland Thorns (17:36)...
NWSL Week 8: Chicago Stars are Blind 13.05.2025 1:01:19
Believe it or not, the guys were already planning on featuring the Chicago Stars' 3-2 loss at home to the Washington Spirit as their game of the week, and then Lesley Ryder published her story on the state of the Stars. Much of what Stars GM Richard Feuz said that piece was embodied by Chicago, who put up their best attacking performance at home in nearly three years, but promise little for the fu...
NWSL Week 7: Parity 4evr???? 06.05.2025 1:02:31
The top-4 only managed to grab a single combined point over the weekend. Does this mean last year's us-and-them table is a thing of the past? Maaaayyyyybe. The guys whip around the league to figure some of this out (2:56), and then close with the Portland Thorns' 1-0 win over the Orlando Pride at Providence Park (37:59). Barbra Banda was all alone, Coffey and Hina bossed proceedings, and Olivia Mo...
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