Excess Returns

In the latest episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson take a look back at 2025 and a look forward to 2026. Subscribe to Click Beta via the links below. Follow Click Beta: Spotify ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/0u1fxie4C4vHXIJPUMhvUs⁠ Apple Podcasts ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/ky/podcast/click-beta/id1793929457⁠ YouTube: ⁠https://www.youtube.com/excessreturns

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Adrian Helfert of Westwood to discuss how investors should be thinking about portfolio construction in a market shaped by artificial intelligence, high levels of concentration, shifting interest rate dynamics, and evolving economic signals. The conversation covers how AI-driven capital spending is changing return profiles across markets, why trad...

In this special episode, Adam Butler and Ben Hunt join Matt Zeigler to unpack one of the most charged debates in markets and economics today: whether our official statistics still reflect lived reality. Building on Mike Green’s work and Adam Butler’s essay The Bureau of Missing Children, the conversation moves beyond the technical definition of poverty to a deeper idea of economic precarity, the g...

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with David Wright, Head of Quantitative Investing at Pictet Asset Management, for a deep and practical conversation about how artificial intelligence and machine learning are actually being used in real-world investment strategies. Rather than focusing on hype or black-box promises, David walks through how systematic investors combine human judgment,...

In this episode of our new show The 100 Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom, Chris Mayer, Bogumil Baranowki and Matt Zeigler explain how investors get trapped by labels, abstractions, and simplistic models, and why breaking free with better mental models, language, and long-term thinking is a real edge in markets. Subscribe on Spotify ⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5IsVVM27KWP6SUW6KN2ife⁠⁠ Subscribe o...

Brent Kochuba takes a look behind the scenes at the options flows driving the market heading into the December options expiration and the end of 2025. Subscribe on Spotify ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/4KR2YVJqk2lnVETMKDavJf⁠ Subscribe on Apple Podcasts ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-opex-effect/id1711880009⁠ Subscribe on YouTube ⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPYvx_y92dvI1PSdiho0A...

Ed Yardeni returns to Excess Returns to break down the evolving market landscape, why he moved the Magnificent 7 to underweight, and how AI, productivity, interest rates, global markets, and sector leadership will shape the next stage of the Roaring 2020s. Ed explains why the economy has remained so resilient, what could finally trigger a true market broadening, and how investors should think abou...

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Andrew Beer to break down managed futures, hedge fund replication, diversification, and what investors can realistically expect from these alternative strategies. Andrew explains why managed futures can act like a “cloudy crystal ball,” how trend strategies capture major macro shifts, why complexity isn’t always your friend, and how advisors can...

We are including this episode from our separate show Teach Me Like I'm Five in the Excess Returns feed. If you would like to continue receiving new episodes, subscribe using the links below. In the episode, we sit down with Business Breakdowns host Matt Reustle to discuss how he breaks down businesses and the common characteristics that the best businesses he has looked at share. Subscribe on...

In this episode of Excess Returns, Graeme Forster of Orbis joins us to discuss two major research papers: Six Courageous Questions for 2026 and Sunrise on Venus. We explore how long-running global trends may be reversing, what that means for U.S. dominance, the future of international and emerging markets, the risks and opportunities created by AI and massive CapEx spending, the dollar’s shifting...

James Grant, legendary founder of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, joins us for a wide-ranging conversation on cycles, interest rates, inflation, credit, the Federal Reserve, private markets, gold, and the future of investing. Grant brings five decades of historical perspective to today’s market extremes, explaining why this era of ultra-low interest rates created distortions that will shape return...

In this episode, we’re joined again by Jim Paulsen to break down the key themes shaping markets and the economy heading into 2026. Jim explains why policymakers may be fighting the wrong battle, why real sustainable growth has quietly collapsed over the past 20 years, and how shifts in policy, demographics, productivity, inflation, and investor psychology all tie together. We also walk through Jim...

In this special episode of Excess Returns, we share the most important investing lessons from more than 50 of our top guests. After asking more than 200 investors, strategists, academics, and market thinkers the same closing question about the one lesson they would teach the average investor, we compiled the most powerful, timeless, and repeatable insights into a single episode. This collection hi...

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt sits down with Ben Hunt to break down his new Epsilon Theory essay, World War AI. They explore how the US government, markets, and Big Tech are rapidly shifting the AI narrative from productivity and progress toward a national security arms race with massive implications for energy, capital, jobs, inflation, and the broader economy. Ben explains why AI build...

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research for one of the most wide-ranging and eye-opening conversations we have ever hosted. Louis breaks down how China transformed its economy over the last seven years, why Western observers consistently misunderstand the country’s growth model, and what this means for global markets, AI competition, supply chains...

In this episode, we sit down with Sanctuary Wealth Chief Investment Strategist Mary Ann Bartels to break down her new 2026 outlook. We cover her long-term S&P 500 forecast, why she believes we are still early in a secular bull market, how technological innovation is fueling productivity and profitability, the risks she’s watching in 2026, and the case for international stocks, gold, and divers...

In this episode of Excess Returns, we talk with Carl Kaufman, Co-President and Co-CIO of Osterweis Capital Management, about navigating today’s fixed income landscape. Carl breaks down the major segments of the bond market, explains how credit and interest rate cycles interact, discusses private credit risks, and shares how he builds durable, low-volatility bond portfolios. Drawing on more than tw...

Follow Us on Substack: https://excessreturnspod.substack.com/ In this episode, we sit down with Rob Arnott for a wide-ranging discussion on bubbles, valuations, AI spending, market history, index construction, and long-term return expectations. Rob explains how to think about bubbles in real time, why today’s market echoes the late 1990s, and what investors can practically do to improve future ret...

Follow Click Beta: Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/0u1fxie4C4vHXIJPUMhvUs Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/ky/podcast/click-beta/id1793929457 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/excessreturns

Subscribe on Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4KR2YVJqk2lnVETMKDavJf Subscribe on Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-opex-effect/id1711880009 Subscribe on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPYvx_y92dvI1PSdiho0ALw

Follow us on Substack https://excessreturnspod.substack.com In this episode, we sit down with Bob Elliott for a wide-ranging conversation about the late-cycle economic backdrop, the Fed’s dilemma, AI’s real economic impact, the cracks forming beneath the surface of private credit and private markets, and the growth of hedge-fund-style strategies inside ETFs. Bob walks through what he is seeing in...

Subscribe on Spotify ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5IsVVM27KWP6SUW6KN2ife⁠ Subscribe on Apple Podcasts ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-100-year-thinkers-long-term-compounding-in-a-short-term-world/id1845466003⁠ Subscribe on YouTube ⁠https://youtube.com/@excessreturns In this episode of The 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer, Robert Hagstrom, Bogumil Baranowski, and Matt Zeigler dive deep i...

Follow us on Substack https://excessreturnspod.substack.com Bill Bengen, the creator of the 4% rule, joins us to revisit one of the most important ideas in financial planning and retirement research. In this conversation, he explains the origins of the 4% rule, how his thinking has evolved over 30 years, and why he now believes retirees can safely withdraw closer to 4.7% — or even more — under cer...

Follow us on Substack https://excessreturnspod.substack.com In this episode, we kick off our book project, The Most Important Investing Lesson: What the World’s Best Investors Would Teach You, with a deep dive into the ideas of Michael Mauboussin. We explore his most enduring lessons—concepts that have reshaped how we think about investing, decision making, and life. From base rates to expectation...

Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Matt Zeigler to talk global markets, China’s resurgence, the AI CapEx boom, and where investors can still find value in a concentrated, overvalued U.S. market. Rupert shares insights from his recent trip to China, his evolving macro framework, and how he’s positioning across equities, credit, and real assets in what he believes could be the start of a...