Economy Watch

Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news risk premiums keep on rising. But first, the OECD is reporting that the global expansion is leaking away, and quite quickly now. Economic activity rose by just +0.1% in th...

Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the bond market is speaking, passing judgement on the Trump Budget - it doesn't like it. The benchmark US Treasury 10yr, 20yr and 30yr bond yields have all jumped +12 bp...

Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news both superpowers are dicing with unsustainable budget deficits that are posed to explode. The Moody's downgrade was just a teaser. The bond market will make the real ju...

Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the US downgrade is seeing the trend of higher interest rates extend. And in the US, we have more negative signals. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index  (LEI) "...

Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news analysts and investors are looking at the unfolding trade-war skirmishes through different lenses. The week ahead will be dominated for us by the 2025/26 Government Budget...

Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news Trump's back-down on tariffs came as corporate decision-makers concluded reshoring isn't a good idea. There are few moves to bolster US-based production. But first today,...

Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the price of gold is falling, long term benchmark interest rates keep on rising with larger risk premiums, and monetary policy regulators are coming round to the idea of...

Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the relief rally following the US-China trade de-escalation continues, for equities at least. But worries continue about recession and inflation. Investors want higher...

Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news mostly about the China-US Geneva 'agreement' and market reactions. First up, China and the US agreed to cut tariffs on each other by -115%. For the US that means they wil...

Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news with claims of "substantial progress" and "a deal we struck" by the Americans in their Geneva talks with China, but no indications of anything from the Chinese. Bluster fr...

Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the US Fed looks more trapped in policy choices than it has for a long time. But first up today, a US-UK trade deal was announced to great fanfare. But in fact it isn't mu...

Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the global economy's track is no clearer today. First up, the US central bank kept it key policy rate unchanged at 4.50% for a third consecutive meeting in line with exp...

Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we are in for a day of significant announcements, but locally and internationally. But first up today, the overnight full dairy auction brought higher prices, up +4.6%...

Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news all eyes are now turning to the US Fed and the results of their meeting about to start. But first up in the US, the widely-watched ISM services PMI for April came in bett...

Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the gold price is tumbling today, ending its recent spectacular rise. But first, American initial jobless claims rose to 223,600 last week, more than expected. There are n...

Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the consequences of US policy changes are now starting to show up in the data. The big overnight news is the Q1-2025 US GDP report . The American economy shrank at an an...

Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news negative data is starting to flow more aggressively in the US as the consequences of dumb policy show through. It been a track to decline for the first 100 days of Trum...

Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news there have been some unusual events overnight. And that's putting it mildly. Canadians are voting in federal elections, ones where the winner will need to tackle a weird...

Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news this week we may start to see some hard data from the US and how the Trump insurgency is affecting the world's largest economy. Already sentiment surveys seem pretty negat...

Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that as tariffs kick in, the US gets higher prices and lower activity. The White House is signaling it wants to pull back from its bluster (whiff of panic?), although Ch...

Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news reality and expectations seem to be diverging. But first up today we can report that the weekly dairy Pulse auction for SMP and WMP brought little-change in the WMP pri...

Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that gold is rising, being the 'last man standing' as a perceived safe-haven asset. And American bond funds are having a moment, a negative one. Outflows are continuing ,...

Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news gold has taken off, hitting yet another new all-time record high as fear stalks markets today and risk is definitely 'off'. But the NZD is rising. As we publish, markets...

Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the gears of the global economy are grinding disconcertingly as the unnecessary trade war is prosecuted with little strategy and no apparent viable end game. But first...

Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the week started with a strong risk-on mood and equities rose on Monday in Asia, and especially in Europe. Wall Street opened with the same vibe, but lost momentum in the...