Earnings Unscripted: Stock Earnings Calls & Analysis

Rivian delivered a paradox in Q4 2025: physical deliveries collapsed as demand softened, yet the company posted its best gross profit ever thanks to the high-margin Volkswagen joint venture. In ~10 minutes: * Deliveries slumped 26% QoQ to just 9,745 vehicles. * Gross Profit hit $120M (9% margin), largely funded by VW cash. * Volkswagen accounted for 60% of all software revenue. * Strategic pivot:...

AEP posted a double-digit revenue drop on mild weather, yet the narrative shifted immediately to a massive, unexpected doubling of their data center backlog. In ~10 minutes: * Why the 2030 load forecast jumped to 56 GW in one quarter. * The "Letter of Agreement" mechanism de-risking Texas builds. * A surprise $2.65B pivot to Bloom Energy fuel cells in Wyoming. * The looming question of how...

The King of Beers is successfully managing a shrinking habit by raising prices and pivoting to sobriety, even as its Asian stronghold hits a wall. In ~10 minutes: - Q4 Revenue $15.6B (+2.5%) while total volumes fell 1.5% 📉 - China EBITDA collapsed 38.7% on a major "inventory reset" - No-alcohol revenue surged 34% (Corona Cero is scaling) - Why North American margins compressed despite Mic...

Coinbase reported a headline net loss driven by crypto write-downs, yet management signaled aggressive confidence by buying back nearly three times that amount in stock. In ~10 minutes: * Rev $1.78B (-5% QoQ), Adj. EBITDA $566M 📉 * Net Loss $(667)M driven by unrealized paper losses * Institutional revenue +37% while Consumer volume slowed * Repurchased $1.7B in stock; authorized $2B more * Q1 Out...

Applied Materials posted flat growth, yet the stock rallied 13% after hours as management cleared a massive legal overhang and revealed a unique physical bottleneck. In ~10 minutes: * ✅ Q1 results: $7.01B revenue (-2% YoY) and flat EPS * ⚖️ The $253M settlement that ended the DOJ export investigation * 📈 Q2 guidance ($7.65B) signaling the start of the upcycle * 🏗️ Why 2026 demand is "metered...

Brookfield is defying the commercial real estate crisis while finally collapsing its complex structure to unlock hidden value. In ~10 minutes: - Revenue +6.6% to $20.2B, Distributable Earnings up 12%. - Why the insurance spin-off (BNT) is getting merged back in. - Real estate defiance: 27M sq ft leased and a 10x oversubscribed refi. - The "shadow revenue" pot: $11.6B in unrealized carried...

Airbnb posted a massive sequential decline in profitability due to severe seasonality, yet management insists the business is finally pivoting back to accelerated growth. In ~10 minutes: * Why Net Income collapsed to $341M (down from $1.37B in Q3). 📉 * The "Reserve Now, Pay Later" trade-off: higher bookings, higher cancellations. * "Project Y" and the strategic shift toward boutiq...

Hilton’s CEO just reframed the hotel giant as a derivative bet on physical AI infrastructure, effectively swapping white-collar consultants for data center construction crews. In ~10 minutes: - Why the "AI Complex" is a massive blue-collar travel catalyst - The new "Undergraduate" brand targeting student housing - How a U.S. government travel slump offset record pipeline growth - T...

Kraft Heinz stock rallied 5% despite a double-digit profit cut guidance and a candid admission from the CEO that recent price hikes "were not earned." In ~10 minutes: - Separation of the company officially paused ⏸️ - Volume fell 4.7% as pricing power evaporated - 2026 outlook: Profits down ~16% to fund a $600M reset - Specific 100bps revenue hit from lower SNAP benefits - Indonesia distri...

Cisco just posted its strongest order growth in years, yet the stock slid ~8% after hours on a cash flow scare that isn’t what it seems. In ~10 minutes: * The $2.3B legacy tax payment crashing operating cash flow 📉 * Why hyperscaler AI orders jumped to $2.1B * Hardware margins vs. spiking memory prices * Splunk’s "revenue drag" despite double-digit order growth While the headlines scream...

Shopify delivered its first-ever quarter with over $100 billion in merchandise volume, yet the stock plummeted 14% as investors grappled with its transition from hyper-growth startup to mature cash-generator. In ~10 minutes: - Revenue hits record $3.67B (+29% YoY) 📈 - Why the $2B buyback authorization spooked growth investors - B2B volume explodes 84% as enterprise adoption sticks - The "Univ...

McDonald's posted its highest single sales day in history via the "Grinch" campaign, yet revenue remained flat as the company traded margin for volume 📉. In ~10 minutes: *   Revenue $7.01B (-1% QoQ) against +6.8% US comparable sales. *   The "value trap": Gaining low-income share but seeing EPS dip 5%. *   Strategic pivot: Halting CosMc's standalone expansion to upgrade Mc...

Ferrari defied the laws of economic gravity in Q4 by shipping 7% fewer cars while pushing revenue and profits to new highs, though a sharp drop in American volume raises questions about the resilience of the U.S. consumer. In this episode: • The math behind the volume drop (-7%) vs. revenue gain (+2%) • Why shipments to the Americas plunged ~16% • CEO Vigna’s "freedom of choice" strategy f...

Robinhood posted record earnings per share for Q4 2025, yet the stock dropped 8% as total platform assets shrank and the company redefined key user metrics. In ~12 minutes: 📉 Total Platform Assets fell $8.7B despite $15.9B in net deposits. 📉 Crypto revenue dropped 17.5% QoQ to $221M. ⚠️ Preliminary Jan ’26 data shows crypto notional volume down 57% YoY. 🧐 “Funded Customer” definition changed to...

Ford utilized a massive "kitchen sink" quarter to write off failed EV bets, but a single supplier fire is now causing immediate cash flow havoc. In this episode: - Net loss swings to $(11.1)B on huge Model e impairments - Adjusted EBIT margins compress to just 2.3% 📉 - Novelis factory fire creates a ~$2B operational headwind - Free Cash Flow turns negative $(2.1)B - Ford Pro profits drop...

Silvercorp posted record revenue thanks to near-$50 silver prices, but a confusing headline loss and rising ore dilution suggest the macro environment is saving the mine from its own physics. In ~10 minutes: * Revenue surges 51% while GAAP earnings flip to a loss 📉 * Why the "shrinkage mining" shift is lowering ore grades * How cash costs hit negative $3.02 per ounce * The $92M cash exit...

Incoming CEO Henrique Braun inherits a messy quarter defined by a massive $960M impairment charge on BodyArmor and "light drizzle" in the consumer economy. In ~10 minutes: *   Why BodyArmor took another nearly $1B valuation cut 📉 *   The $6.1B contingent payment for Fairlife explained *   The "syrup spread": Concentrate shipments vs. price/mix *   Braun’s "constructive discont...

Cleveland-Cliffs posted a rare EBITDA loss this quarter, but management insists the red ink was the necessary cost of exiting a "value-destructive" supply deal that anchored 2025 results. In ~10 minutes: * Q4 Revenue fell to $4.31B with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $(21)M. * Why CEO Goncalves called the expiring slab contract a "disaster." 📉 * The "Melted and Poured" regulat...

Becton Dickinson (BDX) kicks off its fiscal year with a messy Q1 where aggressive capital allocation battled against a 15% drop in adjusted earnings. In ~10 minutes: - Tariffs wipe out 170bps of margin (and worse guided for FY26) 📉 - Factory count slashed from ~90 to under 50 sites - $4B cash infusion: 50% debt paydown, 50% buybacks - GLP-1 delivery devices hit double-digit growth 💉 - Closing th...

GAAP net income plummeted 61% due to insurance accounting noise, masking a record quarter where adjusted earnings actually grew 13% for Apollo Global Management (APO) in Q4 2025. In ~10 minutes: * Why CEO Marc Rowan is bragging about "zero software exposure" * The divergence between GAAP losses and record cash flow * How "origination platforms" manufactured $300B in volume * The sp...

Onsemi just pulled off a manufacturing magic trick: expanding gross margins while running factories at recession-level utilization rates. In ~10 minutes: *   "FabRite" explained: 38.2% margins on just 68% utilization. *   Industrial revenue grew YoY for the first time in eight quarters. *   AI Data Center revenue topped $250M for 2025. *   Why management is voluntarily exiting $300M of &#3...

SAP wrote a massive €10 billion check to its investors, but was it a reward or a distraction? In this episode, Susie and Miro dissect a quarter that felt like a magic trick. While revenue hit targets, the all-important cloud backlog showed a "pronounced slowdown" that management is blaming on a fascinating technicality: government "termination for convenience" clauses. 📉 We dig in...

How do you explain a 17% stock rally on the same day a company posts a record $431 million net loss? In this episode of Earnings Unscripted, Susie and Miro dissect Under Armour’s "kitchen sink" quarter-a report that looked terrible on the surface but convinced investors that the turnaround is finally real. We break down the massive "tax nuke" and legal charges that destroyed the bo...

Plains All American (PAA) just reported a quarter that feels more like a strategic tightrope walk than a standard earnings update. Revenue missed, net income slipped, and management is officially forecasting zero growth in the Permian for 2026. Yet, they hiked the distribution by 10% and are going all-in on becoming a pure-play crude operator. 🛢️ In this episode, Susie and Miro unpack the massive...

Newell Brands (NWL) just posted a $272 million GAAP loss and guided for *negative* earnings in Q1 2026. So naturally, the stock ripped 16% in a single day. In this episode, Susie and Miro unpack the "relief rally paradox" behind Sharpie and Rubbermaid’s latest numbers to figure out what investors are actually celebrating. We dig into the massive $340M impairment charge, the strategic move...