DRUNKENOMICS

First off, I must apologize for all the tech issues in the last couple weeks. Seriously, I've missed you guys. But coming back in inglorious fashion, we have to split a bottle of scotch over the potential likelihood of a US Government default. Though there's still a very low chance that a default does happen, there's still a first time for everything. Odds are, they strike a deal at th...

Sorry for the short & solo presentation...some of us were still recovering from a hangover. But we wanted to give a quick update post CPI and what the market outlook vibes are now that we have a seemingly positive real interest rate. More to come in the next week! Cheers, Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drun...

It should be noted, that this is not an attempt to call Speaker McCarthy a zombie. However, we had to come up with somewhat of a title to combine the subject of a what a zombie company is along with the fact that the largest zombie company in the world might in fact be the U.S. government. Even then, the arbitrary debt ceiling has even stirred some worry that a U.S. government default might actual...

Seriously, when is it ever not pending...but it seems at though this current pending phase is starting to wear out it's welcome. CPI data came in promising, but retail sales slumping maybe suggests that we might have some weakness ahead. But all this data also might suggest that the Fed's policy might be working and that a soft landing might be within the cards. Also, happy Tax Day. I hope...

After a refreshing holiday weekend, the BLS is now releasing a ton of important economic data that the Fed will no doubt overreact to. What economic data might you ask? Well for one, jobs data came out on Good Friday, CPI came out earlier today, and retail sales will be released on Friday. In the last couple years, the Fed has been known to try and solve every little forecasted problem without con...

So...OPEC+ in their infinite wisdom (actually lack thereof) recently made the 'brilliant' cartel decision to cut oil production by 1.5 million barrels per day. All the while, Saudi Arabia smoothed over tensions they had with Iran, courtesy of China, and speaking of China, they agreed to let Saudi Aramco buy into two of their largest oil refineries. Now, the notion of buying stake in China...

I guess the fruits of the Federal Reserve's labor is really coming to fruition. Because of this, they had to succumb to a 25 basis point rate hike to at least keep up the appearance of not completely falling on their sword. Additionally, SVB got bought by First Citizens on a sweetheart deal from the FDIC and the lack of interest in the SVB's assets. And cheers to Gamestop for posting a pro...

I guess the main takeaway from this whole bank fallout out is that the Fed ended up only raising by 25 bps rather than the projected 50 bps by the bond market earlier this month. That and UBS and Credit Suisse are now the same company; which really was a long time coming one way or another. However, the overhanging paradox remains: on one hand, banks that make poor decisions deserve to fail; on th...

I guess the cat got out of the bag and became the elephant in the room. As far as how that happened, Silicon Valley Bank had a balance sheet so ugly that the Motion Pictures Association would have to create a might need to create a new rating class for it. Like seriously, how can you have a portfolio duration that is so exposed to the interest rate hikes of the last two years. Now the question is...

Welcome back everyone, hope you had a chance to recover from your accumulative hangover; and what a week to come back to. So far, we've had a Fed presser, a Beige Book release, and a JOLTS report. As expected, we received astoundingly hawkish tone from JPow and the markets reacted accordingly. Additionally, the Chinese doom loop seems look more and more vicious; which can lead to some severe econo...

In lieu of our 3-year anniversary episode, we decided to form some sort of market outlook for this year. Since we've started, inflation has gotten out of control, markets have been unbelievably volatile, and the Fed is now functioning more like a popularity contest rather than a central bank. However, the constant throughout this time has been the amazing taste of whiskey and the undeniable fulfil...

Jobs report, check. Inflation report, check. Retail sales, check. Three key pieces of economic data for the month of January came out over the past week and all of those signs point to a strong economy; meaning inflation has not cooled at all. Now, hindsight 20/20, the 25 bps hike last meeting now seems weak and cowardly. The contrarian view, however, is that government interest expense is pushing...

The Jobs report on Friday proved that the Fed has a lot more room to tighten monetary policy even more. The only thing we now need to see is the CPI report that conveniently comes out on Valentines Day. Additionally, Lebanon felt the appropriate move for their country is to devalue their currency by 90%. Why would they do that? Well, pour yourself a dram and find out. Find us on Twitter, Instagram...

Well, 450 basis points later and the Fed has not been able to control inflation...especially in chicken/egg prices (although it would be cool if the Fed had a tool in their arsenal to increase chicken & egg supply). But in all seriousness, in the biggest earnings week of the first quarter, the markets also decided to get optimistic about a potential Fed pivot taking place before the end of the...

As the entire world (including Saudi Arabia) gets to know China a little better, the prospects of the petroyuan taking over seems less and less likely. And that's even with all the trade partnerships in the works for China. Seriously, their municipalities are running low on cash, their real estate market is in shambles, and their leadership is seemingly oblivious to their economic deterioration. H...

Inflation print came in a lot cooler last week, which leaves some odd balls to believe the Fed's chance of navigating a soft landing has actually increased. However, if you actually examine the CPI basket of goods and see the drivers of inflation, the news really isn't that good. Better than last month, I'll admit; but still not good. Additionally, international trade agreements are starting to ga...

Now that we got all the new year shenanigans out of the way, we're right around the corner from the first wave of economic data coming out (although a ton of data has already been released); which means the powers that be will have a ton of soul searching to do post-reckoning. But all that really means is that they're just gonna continue to be 'data-dependent,' whatever the hell that means. Also,...

Despite pretty much every asset class experiencing some major carnage last year...it could be worse. Although most major investments were down, it did present an opportune time to do some tax-loss harvesting; which, the subject alone is pretty touchy. Additionally, we finally decided to follow up the potential tinfoil hat story about the potential currency war between China and the U.S. So it's ab...

We all got by 2022 inflation adjusted...congrats y'all & cheers to you. In our last presentation of the year, we actually tried to not talk about the Federal Reserve since they were pretty much the only topic of conversation all year. Instead, we talked about household debt levels, real estate, and of course some billionaire gossip. See you in 2023, in the meantime, feel free to hit us up... @...

With all due respect, the Fed has no balls. Even after admitting the strong labor markets and the pain inflation is causing on the American economy, they still only chose to raise the Fed funds rate by 50 basis points. In their desperation to navigate a soft-landing, inflation may continue to persist well into the new year. Also, European Central Bank is facing even larger problems. Find us on Twi...

As promised..here is our presentation (episode) about complex options trading strategies. When we say complex strategies, we mean option trading strategies involving more than one option contract. These strategies include credit/debit spreads, iron condors, protective puts/covered calls, collars, calendars/diagonals,   straddles/strangles, and even butterflys. We will meet again this wee...

Due to all the requests from our econholics & drinkonimists in our discord, we've finally made an episode on option trading. In this presentation, we predominantly cover single leg option strategies like long/short single calls or puts, why they exist, and even take a dive into option greeks. Next week, we're gonna take a deeper dive into complex (multi-leg) option strategies, such as, debit/c...

Yes, we made a ton of Metallica references in this presentation in honor of the best news of the year: Metallica is coming out with a new album and going on another world tour. Additionally, nearly offsetting this fantastic news is the possibility of a railroad strike, protest outbreaks in China, and language of a premature Fed pivot. Also, the credit bubble seems to only be expanding as savings r...

Happy Thanksgiving folks! Quick episode here on the Holiday week about recent signals from the Federal Reserve. Apparently they're flirting with the idea of pivoting and it's causing all kinds of upheavals. I know there's a lot to be thankful for, but don't you also wish we can go back to the days when the markets looked at something other than just the Fed? Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Fa...

Sorry if this affected you in anyway, but we have stumbled across our next 5-letter f-word once again. This time, it's Sam Bankman-Fried. Additionally, inflation numbers came out and shocked the markets in a good way...twice. So much so, that certain Fed governors are really flirting with the idea of pivoting. Why? Well, beats me, but if you really wanna know how we feel, just pour yourself a stif...