Doom Debates!

Are AI safety advocates like Eliezer Yudkowsky at fault for the recent attacks on Sam Altman because they are “calling for violence”? I invited Steven Balik to join me on this emergency episode to hash it out. Steven is an activist short seller and data engineering professional whose Substack is popular among Silicon Valley VCs and hedge funds. Links Steven Balik on X (Twitter) — https://x.com/lau...

The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist could become the most important movie of our generation. It’s a new film from the producers of the Oscar-winning Everything Everywhere All at Once . Tristan Harris is a subject in the film who is well-known for his role in Netflix's The Social Dilemma . He is the co-founder of the Center for Humane Technology. Ted Tremper is a producer on the film who...

David Sirota helped create “Don’t Look Up” sometimes feels like we’re living inside his movie. Does he share my belief that the looming planetary threat is rogue AI? Sirota is an award-winning investigative journalist, bestselling author, and former speechwriter for Bernie Sanders. He was nominated for an Oscar for co-writing the story of Don’t Look Up. Find our more about David’s work at The Leve...

The popular debate show, Middle Ground by Jubilee, invited me on to take the "anti-AI" side back in April 2024. This highlight reel of the episode shows my experience of the discussion. I'm a lifelong techno-optimist, and it's unnatural for me to represent an anti-tech position. It's just that our AI labs are admitting they're on the path to superintelligence they don't know how to control, which...

Multiple live callers join this month's Q&A as we react to Bernie Sanders and AOC's data center moratorium, the sudden shutdown of SORA 2, and the record breaking "Stop the AI Race" protest. I explain why Claude Code has me claiming a 700% productivity boost, what that means for takeoff timelines and debate instrumental convergence. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:01:08 — Can AI Train on Its Ow...

Dr. Quintin Pope, PhD, is one of the few critics of AI doomerism who is truly fluent in the concepts and arguments. In Oct, 2023 he joined me for a debate in Twitter Spaces where he argued that AI alignment was basically already solved. His “inside view” on machine-learning forced me to update my position, but could he knock me off the doom train? Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:00:43 — Introdu...

My new interview on Robert Wright's Nonzero Podcast where we dive into the agentic AI explosion. Bob is an exceptionally sharp interviewer who connects the dots between job displacement and AI doom. I highly recommend becoming a premium subscriber to Bob’s Nonzero Newsletter so you can watch the Overtime segment in every interview he does — https://nonzero.org Our discussion continues in Overtime...

Noah Smith is an economist and author of Noahpinion, one of the most popular Substacks in the world. He returns to Doom Debates to share a massive update to his P(Doom), and things get a little heated. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:00:41 — Welcome Back Noah Smith! 00:01:40 — Noah's P(Doom) Update 00:03:57 — The Chatbot-Genie-God Framework 00:05:14 — What's Your P(Doom)™ 00:09:59 — Unpacking N...

Dr. Claire Berlinski is a journalist, Oxford PhD, and author of The Cosmopolitan Globalist. She invited me to her weekly symposium to make the case for AI as an existential risk. Can we convince her sharp, skeptical audience that P(Doom) is high? Subscribe to The Cosmopolitan Globalist: https://claireberlinski.substack.com/ Follow Claire on X: https://x.com/ClaireBerlinski “If Anyone Builds It, Ev...

Fan favorite Dr. Steven Byrnes returns to discuss recent AI progress and the concerning paradigm shift to "ruthless sociopath AI" he sees on the horizon. Steven Byrnes, UC Berkeley physics PhD and Harvard physics postdoc, is an AI safety researcher at the Astera Institute and one of the most rigorous thinkers working on the technical AI alignment problem. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:00:48 —...

Multiple live callers join this month's Q&A as we cover the imminent demise of programming as a profession, the Anthropic/Pentagon showdown, and debate the finer details of wireheading. I clarify my recent AI doom belief updates, and then the man behind Roko's Basilisk crashes the stream to argue I haven't updated nearly far enough. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:00:56 — Welcome to the Livestr...

Professor Moshe Vardi thinks AI will kill us with kindness by automating away our jobs. I think they'll just kill us for real. Who’s right? Tune into this episode and decide where you get off the Doom Train™. Some highlights of Professor Vardi’s impressive CV: * University Professor at Rice — a rare distinction that lets him teach in any department. * 65,000+ citations, an H-index above 100, and n...

Fresh off my debate with Destiny, his Discord community invited me into their voice chat to talk about AI doom. Just like the man himself, his fans are sharp. Let's find out where they get off The Doom Train™. My recent debate with Destiny — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNgffLZTeWw Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:00:54 — Liron Joins Destiny’s Discord 00:02:21 — The AI Doom Premise 00:03:27 —...

Renowned scientists just set The Doomsday Clock closer than ever to midnight. I agree our collective doom seems imminent, but why do the clocksetters point to climate change—not rogue AI—as an existential threat? UChicago Professor Daniel Holz, a top physicist who sets the Doomsday Clock, joins me to debate society’s top existential risks. 00:00:00 — Cold Open  00:00:51 — Introducing Professor Hol...

Liron was invited to give a presentation to some of the most promising creators in AI safety communications. Get a behind-the-scenes look at Doom Debates and how the channel has grown so quickly. Learn more about the Frame Fellowship: https://framefellowship.com/ Timestamps 00:00:00 — Liron tees up the presentation 00:02:28 — Liron’s Frame Fellowhip Presentation 00:06:03 — Introducing Doom Debates...

Destiny has racked up millions of views for his sharp takes on political and cultural news. Now, I finally get to ask him about a topic he’s been agnostic on: Will AI end humanity? Come ride with us on the Doom Train™ 🚂 Timestamps 00:00:00 — Teaser 00:01:16 — Welcoming Destiny 00:02:54 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™ 00:04:46 — 2017 vs 2026: Destiny’s views on AI 00:11:04 — AI could vastly surpass human...

On the eve of superintelligence, real AI safety is a nonexistent field. I break down why in my latest essay, The Facade of AI Safety Will Crumble. This is a podcast reading of a recent Substack post: https://lironshapira.substack.com/p/the-facade-of-ai-safety-will-crumble Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for...

Elon Musk just made a stunning admission about the insane future he’s steering us toward. In a new interview with Dwarkesh Patel and John Collison on the Cheeky Pint podcast, Elon said that humanity can’t expect to be “in charge” of AI for long, because humans will soon only have 1% of the combined total human+AI intelligence. Then, he claimed to have a plan to build AI overlords that will natural...

California gubernatorial candidate Zoltan Istvan reveals his P(Doom) and makes the case for universal basic income and radical life extension. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Teaser 00:00:50 — Meet Zoltan, Democratic Candidate for California Governor 00:08:30 — The 2026 California Governor's Race 00:12:50 — Zoltan's Platform Is Automated Abundance 00:19:45 — What's Your P(Doom)™ 00:28:26 — Campaigning on Ex...

Get ready for a rematch with the one & only Bentham’s Bulldog, a.k.a. Matthew Adelstein! Our first debate covered a wide range of philosophical topics. Today’s Debate #2 is all about Matthew’s new argument against the inevitability of AI doom. He comes out swinging with a calculated P(Doom) of just 2.6% , based on a multi-step probability chain that I challenge as potentially falling into a “Type...

Harlan Stewart works in communications for the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI). In this episode, Harlan and I give our honest opinions on Dario Amodei's new essay "The Adolescence of Technology". Timestamps 0:00:00 — Cold Open 0:00:47 — How Harlan Stewart Got Into AI Safety 0:02:30 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™ 0:04:09 — The “Doomer” Label 0:06:13 — Overall Reaction to Dario’s Essay: The...

Check out the new Doom Debates studio in this Q&A with special guest Producer Ori! Liron gets into a heated discussion about whether doomers must validate short-term risks, like data center water usage, in order to build a successful political coalition. Originally streamed on Saturday, January 24. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:00:26 — Introduction and Studio Tour 00:08:17 — Q&A: Alignment, A...

Audrey Tang was the youngest minister in Taiwanese history. Now she's working to align AI with democratic principles as Taiwan's Cyber Ambassador. In this debate, I probe her P(doom) and stress-test her vision for safe AI development. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Episode Preview 00:01:43 — Introducing Audrey Tang, Cyber Ambassador of Taiwan 00:07:20 — Being Taiwan’s First Digital Minister 00:17:19 — What...

I joined Steve Bannon’s War Room Battleground to talk about AI doom. Hosted by Joe Allen, we cover AGI timelines, raising kids with a high p(doom), and why improving our survival odds requires a global wake-up call. 00:00:00 — Episode Preview 00:01:17 — Joe Allen opens the show and introduces Liron Shapira 00:04:06 — Liron: What’s Your P(Doom)? 00:05:37 — How Would an AI Take Over? 00:07:20 — The...

Economist Noah Smith is the author of Noahpinion , one of the most popular Substacks in the world. Far from worrying about human extinction from superintelligent AI, Noah is optimistic AI will create a world where humans still have plentiful, high-paying jobs! In this debate, I stress-test his rosy outlook. Let’s see if Noah can instill us with more confidence about humanity’s rapidly approaching...