Disorder

At the end of the 20th century many world governments sought to lower birth rates – e.g. China’s One Child Policy – but now in 2024… most major world governments are focussed on bringing fertility rates up. In fact, nearly all of the developed world is facing a declining and aging population. Hence, for the first time in human history a majority of the globe’s population now lives under government...

Jason is so so so excited he just just just can’t hide it. He sees the hand of a providential mega orderer at work with the UK going to a general election on July 4th. He doesn’t understand why his British friends poopoo his man crush on Starmer, because he sees Sir Keir as truly messianic in his non-messianic-ness and as a better, younger, more competent version of Biden.     To get a native-born...

The sun is shining, the flowers are in bloom, there is a dense fog over the Iranian-Azeri border, what time does that make it? Russo-Ukrainian Summer Offensive Time!     This episode starts with a short emergency-cast about the crash of the Iranian President’s helicopter due to fog. Jason briefly investigates if the death of this ‘disorderer-in-chief’ is likely to bring any more order to the Middl...

Earlier this week, Georgia passed its controversial ‘foreign agent’ law. Under the bill, NGOs and independent media that receive more than 20% of their funding from foreign donors would have to register as organisations "bearing the interests of a foreign power”. The law has been met with mass protests across the country. So what does the passing of this bill mean for Georgia’s hope to become an E...

Part of the Enduring Disorder is our increasingly divided and partisan narratives. Trump vs. Biden, Leavers against Remainers, Palestinians and Israelis. Many of today’s political actors appear unable to understand and empathise with their opponent’s points of view. Why? Potential because social media, cancel culture, and increased partisanship seems to have actually decreased people’s ability to...

Putin’s nuclear threats over Ukraine and the constant potential of an Iranian/Israeli escalation have brought concerns over nuclear proliferation back up the geopolitical agenda. Western-aligned Asian countries – like South Korea and Saudi Arabia – have begun talking openly about whether they might need their own nukes. Meanwhile, even Germany – one of the most avowedly anti-nuclear countries in E...

Small states like Qatar, Ireland, Singapore, Jordan, and Botswana are thriving in our disordered world. They’re smart, agile, and are implementing novel solutions to the challenges of the 21st century. So what can the globe learn from them?    In part 2 of his conversation with Dr Armen Sarkissian - Armenia’s former president and prime minister – Jason discusses Armen’s book, ‘The Small States Clu...

April 24th marks Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day, but the tragic Ottoman massacres of Armenians of over a century ago have been largely forgotten in mainstream Western consciousness. Why?    In the first of a two-part series, Jason is joined by Dr Armen Sarkissian, a world-renowned theoretical physicist, diplomat, and businessman. He was Armenia’s president from 2018 to 2022 and also its prime m...

In the early morning hours of 19 April, American officials told major news outlets that an Israeli missile had struck central Iran near its nuclear sites. No one was harmed. Officially, the Israelis are not claiming to have attacked; and Iran is not claiming to have been attacked. It is distinctly possible that this pinprick strike combined with denials on all sides will satisfy both parties and a...

Taiwan is not only the epicentre of the world’s semi-conductor industry and a vibrant democracy. It is arguably the most important square on the chessboard of East Asian geopolitics. And the Taiwanese have watched very carefully how China has absorbed Hong Kong.  The ‘one country, two systems’ mantra was a total failure.    China is not planning a peaceful union with Taiwan. China is building its...

In the early morning hours of April 14th Iranian drones and missiles were launched towards Israel. The launch was framed as retaliation for an Israeli attack on the Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus on April 1st.      Nearly 99% of the projectiles were intercepted. Although little physical or human damage was sustained, regional relations have been fundamentally recast: Sunni Arab states lik...

A decisively new kind of maritime terrorism has now emerged. Last weekend, two more British-linked ships were attacked in the Red Sea by Houthi pirates. This comes after the sinking of the Rubymar on March 2nd, which released 21,000 metric tons of ammonium, constituting a major ecological disaster.     Jason is joined by Laura Cretney: a Yemen expert and founder of Pink Jinn, an online marketplace...

Beneath the Caribbean’s idyllic seafronts and sandy beaches lies a darker truth. Illicit money flows, corruption, and organised crime leave these small states hollowed out and open to state capture. In fact, the failure of Caribbean states to provide services to their populations and to generate income has led some of them to sell their sovereignty to their highest bidder.    In this episode, Jaso...

In this bonus episode, Alex and Jason catch up after a long absence and chew the fat. They discuss the tradeoffs of life in the US vs UK delving into the Convenience vs Inspiration dichotomy. They  try to decide who moved to the more chaotic place and where life is more livable and unpack thorny philosophical problems like have Britain’s public services become enshittified just as American tech pl...

India is arguably the world’s only rising great power. As the world’s largest democracy and soon to be third largest economy it is the globe’s most serious aspirant for becoming the 6th permanent member of the UN Security Council. Despite this economic and foreign policy heft, since independence in 1947, India has stridently resisted being aligned with any one particular geopolitical “camp”.  It h...

Can we ever truly achieve Order in the international system? Or is life itself just a deterministic jumble of uncontrollable events? Do humans crave order so much that they perceive it even when it is absent – leading to conspiracy theories? And should policymakers avoid optimization and prediction and embrace experimentation, resilience, and slack to fix the problems of our era of Global Enduring...

Every year, Freedom House releases an annual ‘global democracy health check’. According to it, the world is getting sicker. In this year’s ‘Freedom in the World’ report -- which reviews the state of democracy, civil, and political rights in every country -- political and civil liberties have got worse in 52 countries, while in only 21 countries have they improved.     What dynamics lie behind this...

In this year of monumental elections, there is none which looms larger than the grandaddy of them all: the 2024 US Presidential Elections. With the US Primary season all but over, the match up appears set between the “disorderer-in-chief” Donald Trump and Joe Biden. But in the wake of Super Tuesday is that match up really set? Or might an open convention scenerio emerge leading to last minute swit...

When it comes to working together to face external challenges, no challenge could be greater than extraterrestrial life… and this seemingly abstract problem could be more pressing than you think. In 2023, Air Force Colonel David Grusch spoke before Congress to present his firsthand evidence of alien spacecraft remains and non-human ‘biologics’. In his testimony, he claimed that parts of the United...

In the days following Navalny’s murder, Western leaders have made all too predictable speeches and issued all too predictable condemnations. But as of yet, very little concrete action has been taken to respond to the murder of Russia’s most prominent opposition politician. The West talks the talk, but has yet to walk the walk. How should Biden, Sunak and Ursula Van Der Leyen hit Putin where it act...

Wars are raging in Ukraine and the Middle East. Russia’s most famous opposition politician (Alexei Navalany) has just been murdered. Meanwhile, the international institutions set up after World War 2 to uphold peace and security no longer seem fit for purpose. Into this space comes the annual Munich Security Forum. Its flagship event, which took place last weekend, is its gathering of hundreds of...

In late January 2024, New Hampshire residents received a strange phone call. The voice of Joe Biden was telling them not to vote in the Democratic Primaries.  But it wasn’t actually the President on the line… It was a deep faked robot. This was part of an unlawful attempt to disrupt the New Hampshire Presidential Primary Election. That disinformation campaign was created by easily accessible techn...

As Alex turns 60, she and Jason  look back at how the world has changed since she first decided to enter the diplomatic service. Meanwhile, Jason explains how his ‘lived experiences’ across the Middle East have shaped the way he views American foreign policy. The Boomer vs Gen X dynamics are laid bared for all to see. Then the duo answer listener questions: namely, what UK/US support for Israel sh...

Much ink has been spilled about the legal definition of the crime of Genocide and if Israel has committed it in Gaza or if Hamas committed it on October 7th. In this pod, we are not examining those legal or moral issues. Adopting a non-legal, and non-humanitarian frame of mind, we are going to examine what are the underlying geopolitical, historical, and diplomatic reasons for South Africa bringin...

In April 2022, undeterred by his previous two poisonings, Russian opposition politician, historian, and free speech advocate Vladimir Kara-Murza made the incredibly courageous decision to re-enter Russia – despite his known opposition to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine two months earlier. What happened next was as tragic as it was predictable. A year later Vladimir was sentenced to 25 years in prison....