Derisky Business

Emily and Geoff look back on the first 100 days of Trump’s trade policy, with a focus on how different parts of the U.S. political and economic system are reacting. They get into shifting public opinion on tariffs, congressional debates, market and private sector nervousness, and the courts - all of whom have a view on how the first 100 days of the Trump administration have played out. CNAS,  The...

While Geoff is on travel, CNAS CEO Richard Fontaine joins Emily to unpack the latest trade war developments, including why President Trump paused his reciprocal tariffs and what might come next. Show notes: Ana Swanson, “ Want to Play a Game? Global Trade War Is the New Washington Pastime ”, New York Times  

This week, we have a special episode in our feed from our fellow CNAS podcast Brussels Sprouts, hosted by Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend of the Transatlantic Security Program. On this episode, recorded on April 3, Andrea and Jim are joined by Dan Mullaney and Tobias Gehrke to discuss how Trump's tariff announcement could impact European economies and the broader transatlantic relationship....

Emily and Geoff are recuperating from a busy Liberation Day of new tariff announcements. On this week’s episode, they break down what new tariffs the President announced, raise some questions about how this sweeping new tariff regime will actually be implemented, and discuss what a recent CNAS economic wargame suggests about how foreign countries might respond. Plus, they argue about who gets to n...

Emily and Geoff catch up on the Trump administration’s first big action on China tech competition, before digesting this week’s big tariff news (on autos) and looking ahead to next week’s big tariff news - what President Trump has called “Liberation Day”.   Notes:   White House,  America First Trade Policy Memo Polymarket betting market on Trump tariffs   Doug Irwin, “‘ Reciprocal’ Tariffs Make No...

Emily and Geoff are joined by CNAS Adjunct Senior Fellow Eddie Fishman to discuss his new best-selling book Chokepoints, on how America has weaponized the global economy. They share economic war stories about U.S. actions against Iran, China, and Russia, and Eddie explains why his advice for the Trump administration on economic warfare is “to go big or go home”. Also, check out new CNAS research, ...

On a live episode of Derisky Business, Emily and Geoff sit down with Peter Harrell, former White House Senior Director for International Economics, and Joyce Chang, Global Chair of Research with JP Morgan's Commercial and Investment Bank, to analyze the North American trade war, how U.S. trading partners, markets and the private sector are reacting, and why someone should sue over the tariffs. WSJ...

Alexander Panetta, Washington correspondent for CBC, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, joins Geoff and Emily to discuss Canada’s reactions to the latest trade war salvos. He explains Trump’s “reverse Midas touch” when it comes to shaping Canadian public opinion, discusses how the upcoming Canadian elections may alter Canada’s approach to the United States, and lays out the stakes of the trade...

 Emily and Geoff catch up on the America First Investment Policy memo and other news from the last week, before sitting down with Agathe Demarais of the European Council on Foreign Relations to discuss how Europe is responding to Trump and the future of the transatlantic economic security relationship. (Note: This episode was recorded prior to reports on Wednesday that the Trump administration int...

Emily and Geoff quickly debrief on the week’s tariff news, including new 25% levies on steel and aluminum imports, before chatting all things semiconductors with Bruce Andrews, who until recently served as Intel’s chief government affairs officer. (Note: This episode was recorded Wednesday February 12, before President Trump's Thursday statements on reciprocal tariffs.) White House Proclamation “...

Emily and Geoff digest this past weekend’s on-again, off-again 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as the 10% tariffs on China (that at least for now are still here), and debate what these tariff dramas mean for the Trump team’s longer-term ambitions to restructure the global economic order. Geoffrey Gertz and Emily Kilcrease, “ A World Safe for Prosperity: How America Can Foster Economic Se...

Emily and Geoff play a quick round of Tariff Tarot to dissect Trump’s tariff threats on Colombia last weekend. Then they dig in to the bipartisan debate over banning various connected products, including drones, from China, and explain why this may be one area of continuity between the Biden and Trump administrations. Finally, Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow and director of the CNAS Defense Pr...

Emily and Geoff dive in on the unfinished business Trump is inheriting and unpack what we learned from the America First Trade Policy executive memo. Plus we share a few thoughts on how to get the economic security agenda started on the right track, based on our contributions to a new CNAS report on Trump’s First 100 Days. Show notes: America First Trade Policy memo Stephan Miran’s “ A User’s Guid...

AI expert Paul Scharre, executive vice president and director of studies at the Center for a New American Security, joins Emily and Geoff to dig into the Biden Administration’s latest export controls on advanced semiconductors and AI plus the prospects for building a global regime to control AI diffusion. Press release and summary of the AI diffusion rule from the Commerce Department  Paul Scharre...

Deputy Secretary Don Graves joins Emily to talk about the national security mission of the Department of Commerce and to unveil Commerce’s national security strategy. Read the strategy: “ The Decisive Decade: Advancing National Security at the Department of Commerce ”

Join Emily and Geoff to catch up on a whole bunch of economic security news, including the ill fated Nippon Steel / U.S. Steel deal, new chips export controls, and TikTik’s bad day in court. Plus, introducing ‘Tariff Tarot,’ a segment to help you make sense of all the tariff proposals and threats from the incoming administration, and an explainer on whether the President has the power to impose al...

Emily and Geoff react to the nominations of Scott Bessent for U.S. Treasury Secretary and Howard Lutnick for U.S. Commerce Secretary and overall point man for trade and tariffs. Then Evan Robinson-Johnson, business reporter from the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, joins to talk about the national security review of Nippon Steel’s bid to buy U.S. Steel - which both President Biden and President-elect Trum...

Emily and Geoff switch from obsessing over the election to obsessing over the transition. They dig into what a Trump 2.0 presidency will mean for tariffs, sanctions, export controls, and technology competition - and how the rest of the world might respond.

The Biden administration released its final rule on regulating outbound U.S. investments going into sensitive tech sectors in China. Emily and Geoff dig into the rule, along with what to expect next from Congress and international partners. Check out prior CNAS work on outbound investment: Joint CNAS-Atlantic Council report, "Sand in the Silicon: Designing an Outbound Investment Controls Mechanism...

Emily and Geoff tackle some of the most common questions on starting and building a career in the field of economic security, with the help of Michèle Flournoy, former Under Secretary of Defense as well as the co-founder and current Chair of the Board of the Center for a New American Security, and John Hughes, a partner at the strategic advisory firm DGA Group and a CNAS Adjunct Senior Fellow. Che...

Join Emily Kilcrease and researcher Eleanor Hume to discuss the latest edition of CNAS's Sanctions by the Numbers series, examining how the U.S.'s sanctions policy on China has shifted under the Biden administration.  Find the full report and its findings here: Sanctions by the Numbers: Comparing the Trump and Biden Administrations’ Sanctions and Export Controls on China

That escalated quickly! Emily and Geoff discuss why the U.S. aim to deny China access to the computing power necessary for frontier AI capabilities has led to an ever expanding set of new export controls. They are joined by Reed Albergotti of Semafor to talk about what this means for the Middle East's tech ambitions and by Pablo Chavez to share his analysis on the drive for sovereign AI around the...

Ambassador Jovita Neliupšienė, the European Union's Ambassador to the United States, joins Emily and Geoff for a wide-ranging conversation on Europe's growing role as a economic statecraft power, the importance of the transatlantic alliance in addressing the strategic challenges posed by Russia and China, and why all Americans should drink champagne Ambassador Neliupšienė recommends listeners tune...

NRC Media reporter Marc Hijink joined co-host Emily Kilcrease at a CNAS event to discuss his book, Focus: The ASML Way. For decades, ASML - the most valuable technology company in Europe - operated in the shadows, despite the fact that roughly 90 percent of all chips worldwide are made with ASML’s machines. In recent years, the Dutch manufacturing company has found itself at the center of a geopol...

Geoff and Emily talk about the tensions between social media platforms and governments around the world, including Telegram’s troubles in France and X’s spats with Brazil and Europe. Carrie Cordero, CNAS General Counsel and Robert M. Gates Senior Fellow, joins to talk TikTok and why it’s so complicated to ban the app in the United States.   Carrie Cordero is the Robert M. Gates Senior Fellow and G...