Debunking Economics - the podcast

Last week Phil introduced us to the island of Coinucopia, where only a limited supply of gold coins could be used to keep the economy functioning. But the island is suffering from very slow economic growth. Steve explains how any innovation, that sees new products come to market, will see the same money chasing more goods, so prices will necessarily come down. That’s until the island decides to al...

This week Phil introduces Steve Keen to the fictional island of Cornucopia. It’s a simple place, where the only trade takes place with gold coins. Banks are not allowed to give loans, and the money supply remains constant, unless the Chancellor decides to mint new ones. In such circumstances, how many basic economic principles work? Most of them, it seems. Sadly, this is not the real wor...

Elon Musk has been moaning that he pays too much tax. He wants to keep more of the $14 billion or so that he earns each year. But has he got a point? Do we need to the opportunity to become incredibly wealthy to drive innovation. If we had more equal levels of income, would we actually suffer from lower growth, so everyone would end up worse off.? Phi puts the question to Steve Keen on this C...

When central banks declare a new interest rate, how does that magic into existence? Steve explains how they trade in bonds, to drive yields close to their target rate. If they are buying up bonds held by pension funds and the like, are they also adding to the money supply? Could that have more impact on the health of the economy than playing with interest rates? But the problem is, the money...

There’s a common myth around banks. That banks are the intermediaries who collect deposits from customers, keep a bit in reserve, then lend out the rest at a higher interest rate. That argument then extends to a multiplier effect, where the money loaned out is deposited in banks, freeing up more money for further loans. The multiplier is how textbooks argue that banks create new money for the...

Does government debt expand the supply of money? According to Modern Monetary theory, yes it does. It’s all down to simple double-entry book-keeping and an understanding of the role of financial equity.   As Steve explains, in this step-by-step guide, for the private sector to experience positive equity, the government sector has to have negative equity. In other words, without...

You’ll know the name Mario Draghi. He was the President of the European Central Bank and, for a short while, Prime Minister of Italy. Earlier this year he produced a report EU Competitiveness. It called on the need for more Europe-wide investment, particularly for innovation, emerging industries and the transition to green energy. Phil and Steve talk through the ideas and the challenges...

At least half of America is elated with its new choice of President.  Money is already flowing into the country, with early gains on the NYSE and the dollar shooting higher in value. Tariffs will be front and centre early in the new Presidency, with Trump describing Tariffs as “a beautiful word” recently. But will it have the intended effect. Could the strength in the dollar wipe out any...

The UK Labour party seems top have scored another own goal, with their inheritance tax on family farms. Previously farms were exe pt from inheritance, but that meant wealthy landowners, with massive stately homes set in sprawling estates could buy a few sheep and claim they were a farm. Hence, the government limited the exemption to properties worth less than £1 million, a threshold which Steve Ke...

The classical economic assumption, from the days of Adam Smith, is that we all have free will and this freedom ensures the best possible outcomes for the economy, provided those decisions are based on greed and self-interest. This week’s episode opens with a student questioning Milton Friedman about the freedom of a man who couldn’t afford to pay his electric bill, so the power company cut him off...

Ever wondered why Britain’s roads are riddled with potholes, why the trains keep breaking down and why there aren’t enough hospital beds? Simple. Britain is not making enough capital investments. Taking the public and private sector together, it amounts to about 6 percent of GDP, well below the 22% in the US - which has its own infrastructure problems. China can spend as much as 40% of G...

Steve Keen says he builds his economic model based on the motivation of three types of actors. First, the worker, who wants to maximise his or her wage. Then there’s the capitalist who wants to maximise profits. And the financiers who wants to lend out as much money as possible with the best possible returns. How does Steve’s model change if most businesses became cooperatives. Workers would also...

What causes an economy to fall from a peak? Many economists will argue it’s exogenous shocks but, as Phil and Steve discuss, there’s not too many of those around. Maybe COVID was one, but even that came about because our economic system has drawn us closer to wildlife habitats. Or is it a lack of resources? We run out of capacity to produce more, whether it’s factories, people or natural resources...

It’s a sad fact that war can pay. The US arms industry is one major beneficiary. The UK is a long way behind, but it also a big supplier of armaments to the world. If governments of the world upped their defence pending to 3 percent of GDP that would see a massive increase in demand for weaponry. In Britian’s case it could re-engage the manufacturing sector and maybe even lead Britain back to a tr...

Phil tells Steve that he’s always struggled with Karl Marx’s idea of surplus value. The idea that workers work for themselves, then a bit more to create the profit for a business. Phil says, that seems like a cost-plus approach, whereas in his marketing days, it was all about creating a brand that people would pay more for. The extra value was created by the goodwill associated with the brand. How...

Europe and the US are both recovering from the same problem – COVID and the inflation that followed. But last week the Fed in the US dropped interest rates by half a percent, with markets expecting a soft-landing for the US economy. Europe, meanwhile, is struggling, with Germany’s economy heading backwards for more than a year. So, when the big difference when both economies are coming from t...

The UK’s unemployment rate is 4.1%, the inflation rate is growing at 3.1% and the economy is growing at 0.6% quarter on quarter. That’s how the economy is doing, what more do we need to know? Well, it would be useful to know whether the unemployed are predominantly in certain income groups, or that income growth was greater in particular parts of the economy Like, more for capitalists and less for...

The pandemic was the biggest economic disturbance since the second world war. In both cases supply chains were severely disrupted, either by German U-boats or, more recently, factories and borders closed to stop the spread of disease. On the face of it, though, we have got off relatively Scot-free. We haven’t seen the massive fall in GDP experienced after the war. In fact we saw a sharper fal...

A couple of years ago, when warning of the need to fight inflation, Jerome Powell, Governor of the US Federal Reserve says interest rate would rise and jobs might disappear. Yet, interest rates have risen, and unemployment hasn’t fallen anywhere near as much as expected. So, what’s going on? Does it mean, thankfully, that monetary policy isn’t working as well as expected? Now the talk is of a...

Some call it the silver tsunami. The wave of old people putting pressure on government budgets. And, as baby boomers retire and young people produce less and less children, western populations will continue to age. That means less productive capacity and more people dependent on welfare. On today’s podcasts Phil & Steve talk through the three options open to governments: flood the country with...

The last time interest rates were this high they came down rather fast. This time central bankers are determined to manage a slow unwind and deliver a return to growth without wreaking havoc on the economy. Will they be successful? This week Steve Keen argues the high interest rates are inflicting damage without treating the problem. Inflation is being caused by businesses increasing their mark-up...

Complex systems don’t have to be complicated to provided deep insights into the real world. That’s the view of Doyne Farmer, special guest on this week’s podcast. It’s an approach he shares to economics with Steve Keen. Steve develops systems from the top-down, whereas Doyne’s work focuses on agent-driven bottom-up modelling. But they arrive at similar conclusions. Phil Dobbie talks to them both a...

It’s curious isn’t it how we talk about household savings, rather than net debt. Many people do have money squirreled away in savings accounts, for a rainy day. That rainy day comes when hey lose a job and need that cash to pay their mortgage. So we are saving to help pay off an existing debt at a later date. How cockeyed it that? A lot of that money tied up in savings, including funds we’ve put a...

So, if economics is all about the allocation of scarce resources, isn’t energy the most scarce resource? And yet its not really included in any economic models. We look at labour and capital as the drivers of growth, but energy is just a contributor to those factors, not a key factor in itself. Yet without energy humans wouldn’t survive and machines would lie dormant. This week Phil talks to Steve...

We are obsessed with the need to own things, not least, our homes. But for younger people that is increasingly becoming a pipedream, unless they are lucky enough to gain a healthy inheritance. Even then it’s going to come later in life. In the meantime, we save like crazy, and even when we do get a house, we spend decades paying it off though a hefty loan form the bank. The finance sector are the...