Daily Market Wisdom with Nick Santiago

1. Bond yields are the talk of the town right now. The 10-year US Treasury Note yield hit 2.86% this morning. While everyone is panicking about higher rates the yield curve has steepened and I think that is helpful for markets especially banks. This is a big difference when yields inverted about a week ago. 2. Natural gas continues to be the strongest commodity performer. This morning, natural gas...

1. This Thursday is options expiration for the month of April. Remember, the markets are closed on Friday this week for the Good Friday holiday. Markets have been very choppy and volatile this week and that can continue into tomorrow. It should be noted, a lot of this week's action is very often options related. As I always say, this is a week of institutional game playing.  2. Earnings season kic...

1. Markets rebounding. Dow and S&P 500 are up. Nasdaq is down. So far so good. As long as it ends green. 2. How high can feds funds rate go. The quant says 1%. The dollar has been making new highs. Europe is in horrible shape. The FF rate should follow the 2 year treasury rate. We are looking at a market that is hooked on QE and money printing. Money has nowhere else to go. The DXY hit 100 and is...

1. Markets are retreating again this morning. Everything is under pressure except energy and consumer goods stocks. Yesterday, Fed Governor Brainard said the Fed will look to reduce its balance sheet and raise rates more aggressively. This sent the markets down right after the news was released. Either way, I'm not really that bearish here. I think some industry groups needed to pull in and that i...

1. Elon takes a 9% stake in Twitter (TWTR). This news is giving the stocks a 20% pop this morning. It's also helping a lot of the social media names that seem to be trading in sympathy to the stock. Revenge of the Babylon Bee. 2. Tech stocks are rallying higher this morning. There is some weakness in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), but it is not really much. The S&P 500 Index (SPY is tradi...

1. Oil is selling off this morning. The media is saying it is due to lockdowns taking place in China again, but I'm seeing weakness in agriculture and the industrial metals as well. Hopefully, there could be some type of truce reached in Ukraine and this war can end.  2. The financial stocks are weak today and this must be watched very closely. Every trader is now watching the yield curve like a h...

1. Markets are pulling back today after another big rally yesterday. This Is actually good for the bulls as you do not want to go straight up in a parabolic run.  2. Everyone is watching the oil price as the Russia/ Ukraine conflict continues. Today, crude is trading up $5.00 to $114.50 a barrel. It is really difficult to see oil fall much with this war going on at this time. Earlier today it was...

1. Markets are stalling today after a big 4 day rally last week. Energy stocks (XLE) are once again very strong today as crude trades up $5.50 to 108.70 a barrel. It really is very difficult to see oil decline very much with the Russia/ Ukraine war continuing.  2. Bond yields are also on the move today. The 10-year US Treasury Note is now around 2.24%, jumping 9 basis points today. Last week, the...

1. It's that time of the month again. Options expiration for March is Friday. This is a quadruple witching options expiration which means there are four asset classes expiring this week. It makes for a very choppy and erratic week especially in the popular stocks. I call this the real shark week as the institutional traders move stocks away from the strike prices where the retail options traders h...

1. Finally, markets are bouncing sharply higher today after a 4-day sell-off. Obviously, the Russia/ Ukraine war is still the main geopolitical event that everyone is following. As of right now there is a chance that talks will lead to some type of peace deal. Who knows? I certainly don't. Either way, markets were very oversold and tested the February 24th lows and so far are being defended down h...

1. The Russia / Ukraine war is still front and center. I believe this is now day 8 for the conflict. Oil prices spiked overnight to $130.00 a barrel. While this commodity is overbought and extended there is nothing to say where it is going. If there is a peace resolution then oil will drop sharply, but I'm not sure that will happen anytime soon. There is simply an attempt to cancel a super-power,...

1. The Russia/Ukraine war is still dominating the news and the stock market action. In all of the years that I have been trading I have never seen nor remember a country getting canceled. Sure, the social media companies canceled many conservative voices, but this time around we have corporate giants canceling a nation. Even in Nazi germany there were companies that were doing business with German...

1. The Russia/Ukraine war is still going on and taking center stage. There were supposed to be talks taking place today in Belarus but that has not turned into a peace deal yet. In fact, the Ukraine Foreign Minister said that Ukraine is not ready to surrender or capitulate. So this story continues and oil prices are higher by 3.6% to $94.95 a barrel. I would not look for a meaningful pullback in c...

1 Ukraine war underway and could be over shortly. Will China broker a peace deal and replace the Ukraine president. He’s cleaning up on oil prices and commodities. 2 Markets had a huge gap down yesterday and then staged a massive reversal. Today we had follow-through to the upside. Oil spiked over $100 and then sold off to $91 per barrel. Could pull back a little more, if there’s a peace deal. 3 G...

1. This morning, the S&P 500 Index (SPY) is bouncing a little as the market thinks the Russia / Ukraine tensions will not increase. I have no idea what is going to happen there, but eventually markets become immune to the same geopolitical event. This event has had a major affect on the price of crude oil which remains above $90.00 a barrel. After the Russia story we will all go back to talking ab...

1.  Its options expiration this Friday and the biggest story right now is this Russia/ Ukraine tension. Yesterday stocks surged after news was released that Russia was pulling back troops, but now we know that was not really the case. Today is "whipsaw Wednesday" which is usually the most choppy day of the week before the Friday expiration. So expect another wild session. 2. Energy is the strong i...

1. Geopolitical Events are front and center this week. Everyone is talking about the Russia/ Ukraine tension. Honestly, I have no idea how this will really play out, but it is affecting oil prices, and the stock markets around the world.  2. All of these Fed presidents are out speaking about the increasing rates. For the most part, they have been sounding a bit more hawkish. Everyone is talking ab...

1. Stocks are in rally mode today so far. yesterday, the major indexes were finally able to hold up into the close and that certainly gave the bulls some confidence today. There are also a couple of fed presidents out trying to calm the markets and say that the fed may not raise rates more than 3 times this year. I call that damage control.  2. Bond yields are stalling a little bit today, but they...

1. Markets are starting the week slightly positive after the small Friday uptick. This is a very volatile and choppy environment, so traders must be very selective at this time. This is very little room for error when the bull-market is in a correction.  2. Everyone is now watching the bond yields on the 10 year U.S.Treasury note. They are actually down a basis point today, but still above 1.90%....

1. Better than expected job report for January. Nonfarm payrolls rose 467,000 in January, expectations were just 150K. So this was a bit of a surprise. It looks to have caused a spike in yields. The 10 year note is now above 1.90%. This number certainly puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates soon. 2. Earnings season is underways and we have seen some huge swings in both directions aft...

1. Stocks were defended this past Friday. They staged a big rally after struggling for most of the week. This is natural activity and that is why it is so important to understand volume trends at highs and lows. Today, the major stock indexes are seeing some follow through buying. This is usually common at the end of the month so it is not a surprise. 2. Gold is trading higher today after an ugly...

1. Stocks are rebounding ahead of the highly anticipated FOMC announcement. Every trader is waiting to hear from Fed Chairman Jay Powell. Will they increase the speed of rate hikes. Right now, the central bank is still buying bonds if you can believe it.   2. The markets got very oversold on Monday and then staged a high volume reversal day to the upside. That type of washout will generally last a...

1. Markets are seeing some Monday morning pressure again. Most investors are now looking to the next FOMC (Federal Open market CommIttee) for help. The meeting starts tomorrow and concludes on Wednesday. I'm really not sure what the Fed can do this time around to help lift stocks, but you never know. Everyone is looking for capitulation or a wash out right now. There are a lot of geopolitical even...

1. Markets remain weak at this time, but are starting to bounce back today. Believe it or not, we are nearing very overbought conditions, so there will likely be some short term bounces soon. Either way, this is a time to be nimble and very selective in the type of stocks that you own. Growth stocks are out of favor, but they will be the stocks that get the best counter trend bounces. If you are n...