Daily Market Wisdom with Nick Santiago

1. Today is the Wednesday before options expiration which is this coming Friday. Often, the Wednesday before options expiration is a very choppy and volatile session. We call this Whipsaw Wednesday. Often, rallies will be sold sharply and sell-offs will be met with strong bounces. It is usually a wild day filled with no conviction on either side. 2. The 10-year UST note yield is now at 4.08%. This...

1. Schizophrenic markets. Last Thursday, the major indexes staged a massive short squeeze rally only to give most of it back on Friday. Today, the major stock indexes are surging higher to start the day in what I call a schizophrenic market. Many investors and traders are thinking that these markets might hold up into the elections, but i'm not sure of that. 2. This week is options expiration for...

1. Hot CPI report with still high 8.2% inflation in consumer prices. 2. Gap lower open and then a reversal, will it hold. Options-ex is next week. Wild action. Tech was down and now it’s up. Semi-conductors were getting hit and now are higher. Will it hold through the close. Volume is very positive. 3. Gold was getting slammed and so was silver. Gold recouped its losses and silver is green. Platin...

1. Opec cutting production. Will it be a 1million barrel cut or 2 million barrel cut? Either way, oil is on the rise again. 2. Twitter (TWTR) is being bought by Elon Musk for $54.20 a share. Wow! 3. Markets are pulling back today after a huge 2-day short squeeze rally. in my opinion this is a bear market bounce.  4. Gold and silver are pulling back after a monster advance this past week.  5. Bitco...

1. Markets are trying to start a bear market rally. Today, the major indexes are higher across the board. tech seems to be the lagged despite being positive. That is something that catches my eye right away.  2. Energy is on fire today. Oil is trading higher by 5.9% to $84.00 a barrel. Oil looks very good on the charts. In fact, today I closed out an oil call option for 34% in one trading day. Ene...

1. Markets are testing the June lows. Yesterday, the S&P 500 index breached the June lows briefly and then bounced back above the June bottom by the close. These markets are very oversold so a short term bounce is due at some point soon. The bigger trend is down though so be careful if you are trying to bottom fish here. 2. The Bank of England (BOE) said it would temporarily purchase long-dated UK...

1. Every trader and investor is watching to see if the major stock indexes will be defended at the June lows. At this time, the S&P 500 Index has held those lows, but a bounce with light volume will tell us what we need to know. A low volume reversal or defense of the lows will tell us that conviction is really lagging. So far that is what I'm seeing.  2. Apple Inc (AAPL) is one of the key stocks...

1. It's Fed Day. At 2pm ET the FOMC will make their policy decision for the US. This will be followed by a 2:30 press conference with Fed Chairman Jay Powell. The press conference could move markets. Many traders and investors are going to listen to see if the Fed is going to pivot their current hawkish stance. Either way, there is nothing that they can say or do that will change my stance in the...

1. Markets are starting the week a little lower this morning. There is a near term daily chart oversold condition in place so a minor bounce here would not be surprising. Last week, lots of leading stocks hit some decent daily chart support levels. So some minor bounces should not be ruled out in the near term.  2. All traders and investors are waiting on the highly anticipated FOMC announcement d...

1. FDX plunges after weaker than expected guidance. This is a major global transportation company and when they warn the world should listen. The stock is trading down by more than 20% today and that is the catalyst for the Dow Jones Transportation Index (IYT) declining by 5% today. 2. This week we have seen several leading companies issue earnings warnings. Earlier this week, leading steel produc...

1. Quadruple Witching Options Expiration is this Friday. This is a quarterly expiration and a week of institutional game playing. Traders and investors should also be careful this week as the large institutions will usually push stocks away from popular strike prices where the small retail options trader has placed their bet. I call this the real shark week.  2. Markets are in rally mode today ahe...

1. The major stocks indexes are testing a key daily chart support level right now, but the bounces have been weak. In fact, since last Thursday the major stock indexes have retreated after every bounce attempt. At this time, almost every market participant is looking for a short term bounce to occur. 2. The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains at a 20-year high and this is certainly helping to keep commo...

1. The markets were rallying higher this morning after the non-farm payroll report. Non-farm payrolls increased by 315,000 jobs in August. I believe analysts were looking for 318,000 new jobs. So this was basically in line with expectations. The unemployment rate climbed to 3.7% and this seems to be what the market is excited about. This number was slightly higher than expected (two-tenths higher)...

1.The major indexes are trading mixed this morning. It looks like tech (QQQ) is catching a bid and most everything else is flat.  2. Energy is under pressure and this has been one of the stronger industry groups recently. Crude broke down yesterday and remains around the $90.00 level today. I would not rule out a little more downside for oil in the near term. This looks like a natural correction a...

1. The markets are struggling again today after the Friday plunge. As you know, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plunged by more than 1000 points last Friday. It was a broad based decline and really nothing was spared in the sell-off.  Today, there is some strength in energy (XLE, XOP OIH) which is a decent percentage of the S&P 500 Index. If energy was lower it would certainly hurt the mar...

. The major stock indexes are tumbling today. The decline came after Fed Chairman Jay Powell reiterated his hawkish stance in a Jackson Hole, WY speech. While everyone in the financial media has been talking about a Fed pivot he did seem like he was pivoting anytime soon. The major indexes are all down by over 2% and the sell-off is broad-based.  Tech is today's big loser trading down by nearly 3%...

1. Markets are trading higher today after some recent weakness. It looks like the rally is due to a Philadelphia Fed President Harker saying the Fed needs to continue to raise rates to above 3.4% and then sit for a while. There's today's rally.  2. Mortgage rates headed higher again this week and 10y bond yields are at 3.9%. We still have an inverted yield curve between the 2yr and 10yr. 3. Nvidia...

1. Stocks continue to decline from the Friday sell-off. Remember, last week was options expiration for August and that is usually a neutral week as there are usually a lot of institutional game playing going on throughout the week.  Now we can get back to real trading.  2. Later this week we hear what Fed Chairman Powell has to say about interest rates, inflation and the economy. He will give a sp...

1. Today is options expiration for August. This has been a choppy five days with the major indexes basically flat this week. The current rally that began in late June has been very strong, but it is now getting long in the tooth. It seems that the light volume August doldrums have kicked in and this is helping to keep it buoyant.  2. The central bankers pow-wow at Jackson Hole, Wyoming will start...

1. This is another big week of earnings. Last week, the mega-cap tech names reported and the market rallied on the back of them despite most of the number being weak. This is what happens when expectations are so low.  This week we have over 130 S&P 500 companies reporting so it should be important.  2.This is the first day of August. Often, money will come into the market to start the month. Toda...

1. MSFT and GOOG reported earnings last night. Both stocks are trading higher by 5%. The earnings were not that great, but as I always say, it is the reaction that matters, not the news. APPLE and Amazon report earnings tomorrow afternoon. 2. Later today, the FOMC will conclude a two day meeting. Then the Federal Reserve will make their interest rate policy decision for the US. The central bank is...

1. Huge week ahead. This is a very important week for markets. First, earnings season is in full gear. This week we get the earnings announcements from AAPL, GOOG, AMZN MSFT & others.  2. Then on Wednesday, there is the highly anticipated FOMC announcement. The central bank is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points. Some investors are calling for a 100 basis point hike, but I don't see it.   3...

1. Earnings Season in full throttle. Last night, SNAP reported earnings that really disappointed the street. The stock is trading lower by 35% to $10.59 a share. Last year in September 2021, this stock traded as high as $83.00 a share, what a difference a year makes. You can now tell this is a much different environment without the central bank's easy money.  Next week, the mega cmap tech stocks l...

1. Markets are stalling today a little. This is typical after a huge rally like we saw yesterday. Often, after a big run markets will need to digest gains and pause if they are to move higher in the next few days.  Yesterday, the S&P 500 index (SPY) finally recaptured its 50-day moving average. This Is a key technical level that many traders and investors are watching.  2. Energy is pulling back t...

1. Markets are trying to rally again to start the week. These markets are a bit overbought in the near term after staging a rally last Friday. So far, the S&P 500 Index has held the lows made on June 17th. This is still a market that must be traded a day at a time.  Oil is also strong this morning trading higher by 4.5% to 102.00 a barrel. I'm not sure that is a positive in the bigger picture, but...