Daily Market Wisdom with Nick Santiago

1. Earnings season has begun. This morning, JPM, WFC, C, BLK & UNH all reported earnings. These stocks are holding up well right now. United Health (UNH) is the largest Dow component and that stock is trading up by 6.0% today. Next week we will get a lot more companies reporting earnings. 2. Next Friday July 21st, will be options expiration for June. It is always a wild week as we go into opti...

1. Total CPI for June was up 0.2% month-over-month with the index for shelter accounting for 70% of the increase. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was also up 0.2% month-over-month consensus was 0.3%, which was the smallest month-over-month change since August 2021. This puts the Fed rate hikes on hold if they want at the next meeting. Maybe they raise once more in July and signal they ar...

1. Last week, the major stock indexes pulled back a little from a very overbought condition. This week will be interesting as we get the CPI report on Wednesday and the PPI report on Thursday. Every trader and investor will be looking for signs of inflation. Remember, the FOMC (Fed) will hold their interest rate policy meeting on July 26th. As I have said before, the most important metric is going...

1. The big news out today is coming from the semiconductor group. There is early weakness in NVIDIA (NVDA) and other chip stocks on reports that the U.S. is considering more restrictions on AI chip exports to China. This could be important, but the trend is up in the semiconductor ETF (SMH) so this is nothing more than a pullback today. 2. There is a central bank forum taking place in Portugal thi...

1.The Russian coup is dominating the headlines right now. That could put a bid under the energy markets and that is the case right now. 2. This is the final trading week before the July 4th holiday. It is usually a light volume trading week that is often buoyant. 3. Natgas is a buy and Nick is in it. $5.50 to $6. UNG 4. Gold is upticking today, but it closed below the important 1940 support level....

1. Markets are pulling back this week as central bankers continue to promise rate increases are coming next month. The truth of the matter is that these markets were very overbought last week and right now this looks like a natural pullback from an overbought condition. While the Fed continues to jawbone, price action is still king. As we all suspect, since March 13th when the banking crisis hit h...

1.Chairman Jerome Powell is going to testify in front of the House Financial Services Committee at 10:00 ET. In his prepared remarks, he said more interest rate increases are likely ahead as inflation is “well above” where it should be. "Inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go,” he said. 2. Markets are under some more pres...

1. The CPI number was released yesterday. The market liked it and reacted with a rally. Today, the PPI number was released and it was again well received. Now later today, the FOMC will announce their interest rate policy for the US. This time around the Fed is expected to pause and keep the fed funds rate unchanged. This is already baked into the market but the verbiage could move markets. Either...

1. Huge week ahead for markets. a. CPI tomorrow b. PPI Wednesday morning c. FOMC Wednesday afternoon d. Quadruple witching options expiration on Friday 2. So far it's a quiet Monday, but that won't last long. a. Oil is soft today trading lower by 3.7% to $67.50 a barrel. Should oil break the May lows on a closing basis it will signal a decline down to the $50,00 level. That would be a screening bu...

1.This morning the markets are somewhat on the quiet side. The major indexes are positive and holding steady. Next Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate policy decision for the US. This time around the Fed is expected to pause on rate hikes. This news is already factored into the market and this is one of the reasons why the markets have rallied. Obviously, the verbiage fr...

1. While commodity prices have declined the April JOLTS - Job Openings 10.103 million. The prior JOLTS number was 9.59 million. This hot number puts the Fed in a corner, they simply cannot cut rates right now. So many investors are expecting the Fed to cut rates, but the best case scenario is that they pause rate increases. The Fed's next meeting is on June 14th. 2. Debt ceiling vote is scheduled...

1. AI mania is running wild. The $NVDA chart is euphoric as is most of the other leading semiconductor stocks. Everyone seems obsessed with NVDA becoming the next $1 trillion company. The stock is now overdone. It looks like bitcoin looked before its big double top. I would not buy it up here at this level. Plain and simple parabolic is parabolic. If you happen to own this lower this is the time t...

1.The PCE Price Index rose 0.4% in April following a 0.1% increase in March. The core-PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.4%. Basically, this was a little hotter than expected. This report has been noted as the Fed's favorite indicator. The bottom line, this now puts a June rate hike back on the table. On Wednesday, we talked about how yields have been climbing recently and thi...

1. Markets are in retreat mode again today. The debt ceiling debate continues to remain front and center. In my opinion, the debt ceiling debate is not the real issue. Everyone knows that the politicians will raise the debt ceiling and increase spending. That is how we got to $32 trillion in debt. The bigger issues are the banking crisis, war in Ukraine. 2. Bond yields have rallied higher recently...

1.Last week, the major stock indexes carved out a solid gain into options expiration. I always view options expiration week as a time for the institutions to take advantage of the small retail options trader playing the near term expiration. Now that is over and real trading should be underway this week. The markets are currently trading mixed as tech remains strong and the other major indexes see...

1.Today is the Wednesday before options expiration which is this Friday. Often, the Wednesday before the monthly expiration we will see a lot of intra-day whipsaw. This is a day where rallies will be sold off and sharp declines will see big bounces. In other words, expect a lot of whipsaw and game playing by the institutional crowd. 2. Its a mixed day, bit the Regional Bank ETF (KRE) is trading hi...

1. This Friday is options expiration for May. This should put traders into somewhat of a neutral stance. This is usually going to be a week of institutional game playing. Often, the stocks that have risen a lot lately are susceptible to pullbacks and the stocks in the gutter will often catch bounces. As long as the volume is slight these big institutions can bully stocks any way they want for a fe...

1.It looks like another choppy trading session on the back of light volume. Light volume has really been the theme since late March and that has certainly helped keep this market from coming unglued. Almost everyday we see a sell-off followed by a light volume float right back up into the close. Remember, light volume usually favors a buoyant market. I know a lot of new traders get frustrated and...

1. The CPI report was released this morning. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-over-month in April after a 0.1% increase in March. Core-CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.4% in April. These number matched expectations and the markets rallied higher to start the day. Tomorrow morning the PPI will be released and that also can sometimes be a market mover. 2. Energy stocks are t...

1. The major stock indexes are trading slightly lower to start the week. Last week was another wild roller coaster ride that ended basically flat by the close on Friday. This week we continue to get more earnings rolling in and some big economic reports. Apple reported earnings Friday and stock reacted well. Good sign. On Wednesday, the CPI report will be released and then on Thursday we get the P...

1. It is Fed Day! At 2pm ET, the FOMC will make their interest rate policy decision for the US. They are expected to raise rates by 25 basis points. This is already baked into the cake, the verbiage will be what moves markets. The current fed funds rate is 4.75% and the next hike should bring it to the psychological 5% level. The central bank has some wiggle room here because the 2 year note yield...

1. This is a very big week for the markets. On Wednesday, we have the Fed. They are expected to raise rates by 25 bps. This news is already baked in, so the verbiage should be the market moving event. 2. Apple Inc (AAPL) will report earnings on Thursday May 4th. This is the last of the mega cap stocks to report and probably the most important. Remember, Apple is part of the DOW Jones Industrial Av...

In this meeting, Kerry Lutz and Nick Santiago discussed the stock market rally, the number of layoffs, the Federal Reserve's job mandate, the shrinking money supply, and the performance of gold, silver, and Bitcoin. They concluded that the market is responding positively to the layoffs, the Fed is likely to raise rates, and the precious metals are holding up well. They also discussed the potential...

1. Earnings season is underway. MSFT earnings were released last night and the reaction is positive this morning. The stock is trading higher by 7.0% and that is helping the NASDAQ and a lot of the tech stocks today. GOOG also reported earnings and that stock is trading higher by 2.25% so far today. META is scheduled to report tonight. 2. Energy stocks were under pressure today, but coming back. O...

1. Markets got through last week's options expiration unscaved ending basically flat for the week This week we start to get some of the mega cap tech names reporting earnings. Mega cap tech stocks such as $GOOG, $MSFT, $META and $AMZN are scheduled for later this week. On top of that we will see earnings from hundreds of companies. 2. Next Wednesday(May 3rd), the FOMC will make their interest rate...