Curve Your Enthusiasm

Royce and Ian dissect the recent US Federal Reserve meeting, calling it a reality check for the central bank. Royce talks about why the hawkish move makes Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem’s life a lot easier. Ian then analyses the market reaction and how trading reflation has changed post-meeting. Royce and Ian debate transitory versus persistent inflationary pressures and talk about how that...

Ian and Royce take stock of the divergence between strong inflationary signals and a bond market that just won’t stop rallying. And keeping with the theme of divergence, Royce discusses why the compositional differences of the Fed and Bank of Canada’s policy framework is contributing to perceived BoC hawkishness, noting too that AIT is creating too much uncertainty. The co-hosts also dissect the c...

Royce and Ian are back together after a few weeks off to dissect all of the conflicting economic data releases in the US. Royce talks about how some of the growing pains south of the border might be a precursor to future developments in Canada. Ian gives a rundown of how investors are digesting all of this new information, and flags some potential catalysts for market volatility in the coming mont...

Ian and Royce discuss what calls they got right and what surprised them in this week’s Federal Budget and Bank of Canada announcement. They give their views on which central bank’s outlook is more likely to be realized between the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve. Ian discusses how the expected supply in the Government of Canada bond market this year will interact with the central bank’s...

Royce and Ian discuss whether something is ‘off’ in the recent jobs data, questioning whether the seasonal adjustment process has broken-down. Royce provides his view on what to expect in Budget ’21 next week, while Ian looks ahead to the BoC rate-decision and the likelihood that a taper is announced. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our c...

Royce and Ian discuss the latest Fed announcement and how some of the accompanying projections seemed inconsistent with others. They talk about why the new forecasts could be subject to more change than usual, and how that fits in with the Fed’s new reaction function. They conclude that this leaves more room for markets to ‘fight the Fed’ dot-plot than in the previous cycle. The conversation then...

Ian and Royce discuss the recent bond market selloff from their own perspectives, and conclude that a ‘high pressure’ economic outcome isn’t the driving force. Royce surprises us with his love of farms, while Ian talks about his expectations for the BoC meeting next week and when we can expect a taper. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our...

Ian and Royce discuss the recent bond market selloff and the ongoing debate regarding the US fiscal package. With volatility increasing in both fixed income and equity markets, the arguments have moved from the ivory towers to the real world. They also touch on the implications of all this for the expected QE taper by the Bank of Canada. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.ad...

Royce and Ian discuss the latest developments in the US regarding the Federal Reserve. Royce talks about how a range of employment indicators will be in focus as central bankers figure out what constitutes maximum employment, and how that will affect the timing of rate increases. Ian discusses how tapering US QE could affect Canadian rates. Ian and Royce then chat about how all of this affects the...

Royce and Ian interpret the Governor of the Bank of Canada’s remarks on a host of vital issues, including a micro-cut, the effective lower bound for rates, the future of quantitative easing and the central bank’s inflation mandate. Royce also discusses the upgrades to the economic outlook in the latest Monetary Policy Report, and Ian breaks down some of the divergences seen in short-term Canadian...

Ian and Royce are back in the studio, talking about the potential merits of a Bank of Canada microcut. Ian discusses the interesting way in which yields have been rising, while Royce does a deep-dive on the forecasts we can expect to see coming out of the MPR next week. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal da...

Ian and Royce discuss new information regarding the Bank of Canada’s toolbox. They analyze the most likely ways the central bank can adjust its policies in the event that upside or downside risks materialize in light of the latest commentary coming from officials. The hosts also look at ways monetary policymakers can alter the mix of stimulus as they inevitably bump up against the limits of bond b...

Lisa Raitt joins Royce to give a former-insider’s view on what turned out to be a heftier-than-expected Fall Economic Statement from the Federal government. Ian and Royce then discuss the debt management strategy included in the document and its interplay with the Bank of Canada’s quantitative easing program. Ian sneaks in some questions at the end of the show about how worrisome the current stren...

Ian & Royce discuss the implication of recent vaccine developments on the bond market and what it means for our macro forecast. As well, Royce discusses what the appointment of Yellen to Treasury Secretary means for the FOMC. Ian speaks about the reflation theme and what the bond market expects from the upcoming Budget update on November 30th Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://p...

Royce and Ian have a wide-ranging discussion on the upcoming Bank of Canada decision. Royce outlines the updates the Bank of Canada will need to make to its forecasts, while Ian discusses the likelihood of calibrating the quantitative easing program. The conversation also touches on the limitations of the Bank of Canada’s purchases on the level of domestic bond yields, and how fiscal support might...

Ian and Royce discuss their expectations for the upcoming Bank of Canada interest-rate decision, focusing on what the forecasts will look like and whether or not any adjustments to QE will be announced. Royce discusses the outlook for CPI, while Ian highlights some opportunities in real-return bonds. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our co...

Ian is joined by his colleague Jeremy Stretch this week, our Head of G10 FX Strategy. Jeremy discusses all aspects of Brexit, from the political climate to the yield curve to prospects for the GBP. Ian identifies some potential curve divergence between the UK and Canada, and ruminates on the merits of a relative CAD steepener versus GBP flattener. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See http...

Ian & Royce are back in the studio this week, discussing their interpretation of the Throne Speech and what it means for macro and rates. Royce talks about the sustainability of fiscal support, while Ian ruminates on what needs to happen for issuance risks to increase going forward. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use o...

Royce and Ian are reunited in the studio after a month apart. They provide their thoughts on the most recent Bank of Canada interest rate announcement, in particular why the Bank didn’t mention the Canadian dollar and what the inclusion of the word “calibrate” means for the future of QE. Royce outlines his view on why the Bank’s forward guidance is being misunderstood in the market, while Ian make...

Ian is joined by Vivek Beri (Executive Director, Structured Rates Trading) as guest-host this week, discussing the Fed’s announcement at Jackson Hole and what it means for the curve. They also discuss recent developments in the CAD vol market, what the BoC inflation renewal means for CAD rates and, their favorite trades for the weeks ahead. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm...

Ian Pollick and Craig Bell discuss why Canadian swap spreads have historically been so elevated and how QE may or may not change that going forward. Additionally, they discuss some of the major themes in CAD rates percolating beneath the surface, and how most of those themes point to a steeper yield-curve. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about...

Royce Mendes interviews Barbara Zvan, who was a member of the Expert Panel on Sustainable Finance and has recently been appointed President and CEO of the newly established University Pension Plan, a jointly sponsored pension plan for Ontario’s university sector. Royce then breaks down the reasons Canada’s labour market might show early signs outperforming that of the US in next week’s employment...

Royce Mendes takes a second look at the Bank of Canada’s commitment to keep rates pinned down and finds an interesting twist that could prove significant for investors as the recovery gains steam. He also previews next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and the GDP data set to be released in both the US and Canada. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information a...

Ian Pollick and Royce Mendes discuss the most recent Bank of Canada interest rate announcement, implications from the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) on the bond market, and delve into their view on the evolution of Canadian QE. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Royce breaks down what’s ahead now that there’s a price-tag for the federal government’s pandemic response. He also welcomes the Hon. Lisa Raitt to the program to share her expert analysis of the government’s Economic and Fiscal Snapshot. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.