Crossing Thin Ice

You must walk the walk and not just talk the talk. Strong Risk Management culture means that words and actions are also consistent with beliefs. By Dave Ingram. We would like to know what you think about a set of 30 Risk Culture Beliefs that we have observed.  Please take our totally anonymous survey about  RISK BELIEFS .   We have been sharing discussions of the 30 Risk Beliefs - Read about them...

The leading risk in the 2024 survey is Cybercrime. From phishing scams to ransomware attacks, cybercriminals are constantly evolving, posing new threats to individuals, businesses, and governments alike. Consistently ranked #1 or #2 in the annual Dangerous Risks survey, learn why we think that Cybercrime is here to stay. By Dave Ingram  And here is the link to the Fear vs. Danger podcast where we...

Feedback loops are increasingly seen as important in climate projections. Melting permafrost is expected to accelerate warming of the planet and release pathogens unknown to us today. By Max Rudolph.

Four scenario examples leading to Regime Change from Neil Howe, Ray Dalio, Peter Zeihan and the IPCC show us how widely the disruptions can differ while consistently ending up with a big regime change in our near-term future. Part 2 of a four-part series. By Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph

When rates recently spiked it surprised many with direct and indirect implications. The market value of bonds decreased, and the price of replacement parts for autos increased. There are three ways that insurers can be affected by higher rates. Looking at past events help to prepare for similar tail events in the future. By Max Rudolph.

The 2024 survey sees respondents react to recent increases in specific risks as technology evolves and the environment moves away from the pandemic. The top 4 risks are the same as those seen in 2019. By Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph.

New asset classes like junk bonds and subprime mortgages initially promised high returns without too much risk. Many investors were surprised to find that the risk premium was insufficient to provide for actual losses when they came. Modelers need to adjust for incomplete investment cycles that include only the positive part (e.g., high spreads) but not the defaults and liquidity crises typical at...

Has any of your ERM program has been written down? Or is it at risk of being lost when a key player leaves the insurer?  The Risk Management Framework document provides the RiskMaster Cheat Codes for understanding the overall ERM system and for specific topics like stress testing and risk reporting to allow a new risk team to start from a solid base should that be needed. It also can act as a chea...

Climate change and population growth have stressed fresh water sources, leaving agriculture and coastal residents with opposing issues. While aquifers and rivers struggle, extreme weather and sea level rise provide an overabundance of water. Insurers increasingly are dealing with these extreme weather events that highlight the presence of too much water (hurricanes, inland flooding) or too little...

Resilience can be described as bending without breaking. There are four aspects of ERM that all need to be fully adopted to achieve this important result. By Dave Ingram.

It is commonly assumed that higher returns require higher risk to be accepted. Fear and greed may outperform over the short term but often the last investor in does poorly. Long periods of stimulus provide warning that economic cycles come to an end eventually. By Max Rudolph.

Radical changes in our Physical, Political, Economic and Social systems have been and will continue to buffet humanity. Every so often the combined result is a major change of regime in which new patterns for each of these systems develops and persists for some time creating a new normal.  We make the case that this is coming in our world. By Max Rudolph and Dave Ingram

It was tempting, when interest rates were so low, to borrow just because you could. But that may not be best for an organization from a risk/reward perspective.  Leverage can have a major impact on the risk profile that is not usually considered. Leverage is actually the flip side of risk management.  By Dave Ingram

No one is arguing anymore that the planet is not getting hotter, but what are the limits to temperature rise for humans survival? The ramifications for those who live in poverty in tropical zones is that they will need to move because of the heat. The alternatives are unacceptable. The world needs a plan to deal with massive climate migration. By Max Rudolph.

Stakeholder perception about the appropriate level of risk and the corresponding capital level varies. Some insurers focus on optimizing income and disbursements, while others find their goals aligned by holding redundant capital. Here we discuss several broad choices for the level of capital and the pros and cons of each based upon common business objectives. By Dave Ingram.

Historically, scenarios have focused on one assumption at a time but that is not realistic in today’s quickly evolving world. Risk interactions are very important considerations and impact scenario assumptions dynamically. Three narrative scenarios that interact between financial and non-financial risks are discussed. By Max Rudolph.

Enterprise Risk Management is practiced in different ways by insurers. Some focus on the basics while others consider ERM as a strategic strength. In a recent survey, ARM asked what is most important to them about ERM.

Prior to 2019, Pandemic was the most studied emerging risk. And now that one has happened, it is time to study our reactions to COVID. In this podcast, we look at the reactions that people typically have to near death experiences and find that they are similar to the reactions that companies are having to COVID. Several very different reactions have been observed, but only one has a lasting favora...

Scenario based planning is good for forming company strategy and it can also be good for planning risk management. There are a number of ways that the future might play out for risk management and the likelihood of each of the six possibilities mentioned here has probably changed significantly because of our experiences over the past two years. Which future will you be prepared for and which would...

A volcano erupts somewhere, on average, every week. Eruptions large enough to impact the global environment happen much less frequently, but they have happened. The “Year without a Summer” in 1815 affected crops and immigration, and similar events will happen again. These Super Volcanoes tend to have numerous knock-on effects. By Max Rudolph

Concentration is added by doubling down on things you do well. This two-part story considers strategic drivers that add to concentration and tactical methods to mitigate these risks. By Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph.

When a catastrophic event hasn’t happened since 1700 there is not much historical data to aid those who live there or insure residents. Here are some of the basic concerns. By Max Rudolph

There is a story about ERM that most insurers can tell. A story with four chapters: ERM Framework, Individual Risks, Aggregate Risk & Capital and the ERM Journey. Usually there isn’t enough time to tell the the ratings analyst all four chapters, so you have to choose. By Dave Ingram

Tiny pieces of plastic are found in the ocean, soils and the human body. This can’t be good. Scientists are still learning about the implications of microplastics, but it’s clear that better recycling and reduced use of plastic bottles, fishing nets, micro beads and nurdles are a start. By Max Rudolph

Stress tests come in a wide variety of levels of adversity. This podcast suggests that we all should focus on just three: normal volatility, realistic disasters and worst case scenarios. Aligning the appropriate stress test to the audience is very important when managing risk for an insurer. Management, Boards and Regulators will each find something to like with these three levels of stress. By Da...