Credit Currents - Moody's Ratings

Inside this episode Anushka Shah of the Sovereign team discusses how the coronavirus is exacerbating income inequality across emerging Asia, which will pose challenges to governments with weak social protection systems and low capacity to raise spending. Also, Matthew Kuchtyak of the ESG team looks at the growing importance of social issues for global investors, as reflected in the recent record i...

Inside this episode: Michael Taylor and Lillian Li of the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss the rising credit strains on many emerging market countries that are part of the Belt & Road Initiative and the direction of the plan post-pandemic. Plus, analyst Nishad Majmudar talks about our analysis of ESG-related credit considerations in emerging market rating actions across sectors. Related con...

Inside this episode: Analysts Sarah Carlson, Eugene Tarzimanov and Carolina Chimenti discuss the 2021 credit outlook for sovereigns, banks and companies across emerging market countries. The wide-ranging effects of the coronavirus will continue to be a dominant credit theme, along with still-weak tourism prospects, low oil prices and the rollback of forbearance and fiscal support in a number of co...

Inside this episode: Lucie Villa of the Sovereign team explains how the path to fiscal repair for many emerging market economies will likely be long and bumpy as revenue generation remains a struggle. Plus, William Foster, also of the Sovereign team, discusses whether India’s new fiscal stimulus push will be sufficient to jumpstart the country’s economy. Related content: Second round of stimulus w...

Original publish date: October 14, 2020 Inside this episode: Ivy Poon of the Infrastructure Finance team discusses how fiscal support will help offset the rise in leverage for infrastructure issuers resulting from increased capital spending on transportation, renewable energy and other projects. Celina Vansetti-Hutchins of the Banking team explains what the rapid drop in Brazilian interest rates t...

Original publish date: September 30, 2020 Inside this episode: Constantinos Kypreos of the Banking team talks about the mounting credit strains on African banks, a reflection of the weakening financial strength of their home countries. Elisa Parisi-Capone of the Sovereign team examines the credit effects of Lebanon’s economic, financial and social crisis, as well as the potential for reforms.​ Rel...

Original publish date: September 16, 2020 Inside this episode: Gersan Zurita of the Credit Strategy & Research team discusses the steep decline in Mexican employment resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and why the road to recovery will be long.  Evan Wohlmann of the Sovereign team explains how heightened political instability in Belarus is negative for the country’s sovereign credit quality.​​​ R...

Original publish date: September 2, 2020 Inside this episode: Elena Duggar discusses the Credit Strategy & Research team’s analysis of the four main causes of sovereign bond defaults and how environmental, social and governance issues can be contributing factors.  Atsi Sheth explains how increased manufacturing output and Chinese economic activity point to an incipient rebound in global trade.​​​...

Original publish date: August 19, 2020 Inside this episode: Christian de Guzman of the Sovereign team discusses how lower wages and the fall in employment of migrant workers in advanced economies will result in a decline in remittances to some developing economies.  Banking team analyst Nitish Bhojnagarwala talks about our outlook for the issuance of Islamic sukuk bonds.​ Related content: Sukuk is...

Original publish date: August 5, 2020 Inside this episode: Corporates analyst Lahlou Meksaoui discusses the credit outlook for UAE property developers.  Sean Hwang, also from the Corporates team, talks about prospects for a revival of Macao's gaming sector.​​​ Related content: Double hit from coronavirus and oil price slump will erode credit quality for most End of quarantine for mainland tourists...

Original publish date: July 22, 2020 Inside this episode: Artem Frolov of the Corporates team provides insight about our cautiously optimistic view of Russian oil companies’ credit dynamics despite the adverse operating environment.  Michael Higgins of the Sovereign team discusses the challenges and recovery prospects for non-investment grade emerging and frontier market sovereigns.​​ Related cont...

Original publish date: July 8, 2020 Inside this episode: Sarah Carlson of the Sovereign team examines Turkey’s economic and credit prospects following the coronavirus shock. Merxe Tudela Carreres of the Model Development group discusses the findings of Moody’s new EM Financial Conditions Indicators series.​​​​ Related content: Financial conditions stabilise, but pandemic fallout casts shadow on H2...

Original publish date: June 24, 2020 Inside this episode: David Rogovic of the Sovereigns team discusses how the global travel slump is hurting emerging market countries, particularly small island-economies with a heavy dependence on tourism revenue.  Barbara Mattos of the Corporates team shares insights as to how Brazilian mining giant Vale, a bellwether for the sector, is faring after coronaviru...

Original publish date: June 10, 2020 Inside this episode: Michael Taylor of the Credit Strategy & Research team discusses the prospects for economic recovery and employment stability in China as the country tries to revitalize growth following the coronavirus. Kelvin Dalrymple from the Sovereign team talks about the twin shocks for East Africa of the coronavirus and a locust infestation that threa...

Original publish date: May 27, 2020 Inside this episode: Lucie Villa of the Sovereign team discusses a debt relief initiative for low-income countries grappling with liquidity pressures.  Daniela Jayesuria of the Structured Finance team offers insights on coronavirus-related debt moratoriums for individual and corporate borrowers in Latin America, one of the biggest securitization markets in emerg...

Original publish date: May 13, 2020 Inside this episode: Atsi Sheth of the Credit Strategy and Research team shares insights on how the coronavirus will likely push the global economy into recession this year, and why the downturn poses particular risks for emerging markets.  Sean Marion of the Financial Institutions team discusses why credit risks are rising for South African banks.​​​​​ Related...

Original publish date: April 29, 2020 Inside this episode: Ariane Ortiz-Bollin of the Sovereign team and Nymia Almeida of the Corporates team discuss the factors behind our recent rating downgrades of the Mexican sovereign and domestic energy giant PEMEX.  Insights from Franco Leung of the Corporates team on the weaker operating environment for China’s property sector, one of the most active segme...

Original publish date: April 15, 2020 Inside this episode:  India’s sweeping lockdown to combat the coronavirus outbreak is the largest restriction of movement the world has ever seen. In this episode, Moody’s analysts William Foster and Alka Anbarasu talk through the credit implications of containment efforts for the country’s government and banks.  Analyst Gabriel Torres also joins to discuss Ar...

Original publish date: April 1, 2020 Inside this episode: Marie Diron discusses what’s ahead for emerging market sovereigns as the coronavirus outbreak spreads and demand for oil drops.  Matthew Kuchtyak discusses our outlook for sustainable finance and ESG investing in emerging markets after a landmark year in 2019​​​​​. Related content: Coronavirus and oil price shock magnify weaknesses highligh...