Chain Reaction

The conflict in Libya has prompted more aggressive external intervention, beginning with the Russian decision to send mercenaries to give support to Khalifa Hiftar, the leader of the Libyan National Army (LNA) and the Turkish decision to send its own forces, along with Syrian rebels, to augment its preferred actor, the Government of National Accord (GNA). Amidst two summits, one in Moscow and the...

After tensions with Iran escalated, American military operations in Iraq have been curtailed over concerns about possible attacks on U.S. soldiers. To discuss the threat to the U.S. military, Aaron spoke with Ian Rice, a retired US Army Colonel with experience in Iraq about the role of Shia militias in the fight against Islamic State -- and the threat they may now pose for U.S. interest. In a seco...

After a period of calm following the territorial defeat of the Islamic State, Iraq has faced unprecedented protests, aimed at unseating the current ruling class and expressing anger at corruption and poor economic management. To discuss the protests, Aaron spoke with Maya Gebeily, the Baghdad correspondent for Agence France Presse. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subs...

During the run-up to NATO's 70th anniversary summit, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan indicated that Turkey would block consensus on the Graduated Response Plans for the Baltic States and Poland, along with the southern flank, unless the alliance recognized the YPG as a terror threat. Ankara eventually dropped this demand, but not before French President Emanuel Macron chastised Ankara for this appr...

Note: The audio quality of this episode was adversely affected by connectivity issues experienced during the recording session. We apologize for the inconvenience. During the run-up to NATO's 70th anniversary summit, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan indicated that Turkey would block consensus on the Graduated Response Plans for the Baltic States and Poland, along with the southern flank, unless the...

The Turkish invasion of northeastern Syria has upended the U.S. counter-ISIS mission and forced a hasty American withdrawal. To discuss the recent events, and what they mean for the U.S.--Turkish relationship, Aaron spoke with Nick Danforth, a senior visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

In response to Iranian provocations, the United States has sent forces back to the Middle East. To discuss the American deployments, and the defense of Saudi Arabia, Aaron speaks this week with Becca Wasser, a senior policy analyst at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Iran has been accused of firing cruise missiles and drones at oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, a close American partner, and the world's most important energy producer. The attack was the most audacious yet, in what has been a simmering indirect conflict between the Middle East's two largest powers. To discuss this situation, Aaron speaks with Dr. Afshon Ostovar, an assistant professor of national...

Israelis head to the polls, again, on September 17th to decide the fate of current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his Likud Party, and his many challengers. To discuss the state of the race, Aaron speaks with Michael Koplow, the policy director at the Israel Policy Forum. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

The Assad regime launched a major offensive to recapture Khan Sheykun, a formerly opposition held town, and is now threatening to expand the campaign and continue his march north. To discuss the current offensive, Aaron spoke with Elizabeth Tsurkov, a Research Fellow, Forum for Regional Thinking, where she focuses on Syria. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

After Iran seized a British tanker in the Persian Gulf, the United Kingdom surged naval forces to escort tankers, and are now joining an on-going American effort to escort ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Michael Stephens, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, about the British policy towards the Islami...

Last Thursday (July 25, 2019) was the 25th anniversary of the Washington Declaration, which ended the state of war between Israel and Jordan. The peace treaty that followed remains a key component of Middle Eastern security and underpins relations between Jerusalem and Amman. Dr. Josh Krasna, a FPRI senior fellow and adjunct assistant professor at the NYU Center for Global Affairs, discusses the s...

Amidst reports of a UAE drawdown from Yemen, Aaron speaks with Elizabeth Dickinson, the senior analyst for the Arabian Peninsula at the International Crisis Group, about the conflict and what role the United States could play in helping to de-escalate and end the fighting. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Nada Bakos, an FPRI Senior Fellow and former CIA analyst, about her book, The Targeter, and what lessons can be learned from the effort to target Zarqawi and applied to dealing with Islamic State after the territorial defeat of the caliphate in Iraq and Syria. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Turkey's acquisition of a Russian made S-400 air defense system appears inevitable. To discuss the Russian side of this story, Aaron speaks with Rob Lee, a former Marine and PhD candidate at King's College, London. The conversation explores the state of the Russian defense industry, the structure of the S-400 deal with Turkey, and potential Turkish-Russian aerospace cooperation after the S-400 is...

On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Ariane Tabatabai, an associate political scientist at RAND, to discuss Iran's relationship with various non-state actors in the Middle East, and how the Islamic Republic leverages these relationships to achieve foreign and military policy goals in the region. Related Materials: Iran Seeks to Cement Legitimacy of Shia Militias http://bit.ly/2WvmNc...

Tensions between Iran and the United States have escalated in the Persian Gulf. On this week's Middle East Brief, Afshon Ostovar, an assistant professor at the Naval Post Graduate School and FPRI Senior Fellow, joins the program to discuss the recent attack in Fujairah, U.S. policy towards Iran, and the potential for a U.S. - Iranian clash. Related Materials by Afshon Ostovar: "Vanguard of the Ima...

What is happening in Libya? Who are the key actors, which countries back which militias, and how has the Trump administration handled the recent surge in violence in Libya's capital city? On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Libya watcher and FPRI contributor Yousuf Eltagouri about the latest in the civil war. Read More: Haftar’s Final Play: Operation Flood of Dignity and the Fight...

What is the future of northeastern Syria? After two days of talks in Erbil, Michael Stephens, a Research Fellow for Middle East studies at the Royal United Services Institute in London, sits down with Aaron to talk about Syria’s northeast, the future of the Kurdish movement, the role of Turkey, and great power politics. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Turkish voters went to the polls on 31 March, casting votes for local elected leaders. The outcome in Istanbul and Ankara, Turkey's two largest cities, have rocked Turkish politics, and galvanized the political opposition to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP). To discuss the election, Aaron speaks with Selim Koru, an analyst at TEPAV, a Turkish think tank in Ankar...

The United States and Turkey remain at odds over Ankara's purchase of a Russian S-400 air and missile defense system. The time to resolve American and Turkish concerns about this issue is running out, and the stakes for diplomatic failure will have repercussions for the bilateral relationship, the Russian role in the region, and could impact NATO. In this week's episode, Aaron discusses the S-400...

With all eyes on Baghuz and the final battle against Islamic State in Syria, the Middle East Brief podcast spoke with Robert Fox Fellow Rasha al Aqeedi to hear the latest from Iraq, which declared victory over ISIS in December 2017. The conversation touched on the nascent ISIS insurgency, the state of reconstruction in Mosul, and the many enduring challenges the Iraqi government now faces. Get ful...