Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford

In 1998, an art gallery gets a mysterious phone call. The caller claims they have been fooled by a master forger and that many of their prized paintings are fakes. Or are they? This is the story of the life and lies of the notorious Eric Hebborn. What did he do, and what does that teach us about how we can root out deepfakes without undermining our trust in reality? For a full list of sources, see...

In 1960, FDA scientist Frances Oldham Kelsey is tasked with approving an application for a mild sedative to be sold in America. The drug is popular across Europe and is touted to be free of side effects, so this should be a routine job. But something doesn't sit right with Frances and she starts digging for evidence to support her suspicions. As the pharmaceutical company pushes for speedy approva...

Do you want more Cautionary Tales episodes in your life? Do you want access to behind the scenes stories and bonus conversations with Tim? Do you want to support us in making the show? We're excited to announce the brand new Cautionary Club on Patreon. Subscribers will gain access to exclusive content every month, including a newsletter uncovering new details behind a recent episode, a conversatio...

In 1923, legendary navigator Captain Dolly Hunter led a squadron of warships into America’s worst peacetime naval catastrophe. The mission was supposed to be a speed trial, a display of the squadron’s skill. But it ended in a maritime pile-up, with some destroyers stranded on rocks, others sinking fast, and deadly oil leaking into the Pacific Ocean. How? See omnystudio.com/listener for...

Dore Strauch and Friedrich Ritter make an unconventional couple, united by their contempt for shoes, root vegetables and, above all, society. In 1929 they leave Germany and begin anew on the deserted Galapagos island of Floreana. At first, it feels like a paradise, but soon cracks begin to show. Parasitic fleas, bombastic interlopers, and buried tensions turn their escape into a nightmare. Can the...

William McGonagall's poems are something else. The jarring meter, the banal imagery, the awkward rhymes: they made him a laughing stock in 19th Century Scotland and are still derided to this day. How does someone get that bad at poetry? Or have we been misunderstanding McGonagall all along? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the early 90s, cutting-edge advertising agency Chiat/Day announced a radical plan, aimed at giving the company a jolt of creative renewal. They would sweep away corner offices and cubicles and replace them with zany open spaces, as well as innovative portable computers and phones. A brand new era of “hot-desking” had arrived. Problems quickly began. Disgruntled employees found thems...

Pepsi twice ended up in court after promotions went disastrously wrong. Other big companies have fallen into the same trap - promising customers rewards so generous that to fulfil the promise might mean corporate bankruptcy. Businesses and customers alike are sometimes blinded by the big numbers in such PR stunts - but it's usually the customers, not the businesses, who end up losing out. For a fu...

It's been five years since Cautionary Tales ran a mini-series about the Covid-19 pandemic, exploring the lessons we were learning in real time as the crisis unfolded. 'Fire at The Beverly Hills Supper Club' tells the story of a deadly blaze in a Cincinnati hotel and Tim's own experience reacting to new information about the virus. After the episode, Tim reflects on the anniversary, the cautionary...

Lying on the cold metal table, Voyne Ray Cox knew the drill. This was his ninth round of cancer treatment - which is why he was certain that what happened next couldn't be right. He heard a sizzling sound and saw a blue flash. And then - agony. It was like someone had thrust a hot skewer through his shoulder. He cried out in pain, but the operator was down the corridor and she couldn't hear him. S...

Acclaimed author Michael Lewis discusses his time with Sam Bankman-Fried and why he thinks both high finance and Effective Altruism shaped the 'Crypto King's' worldview, ultimately landing him in jail. Plus, we hear about the people fighting terrorism, cave-ins and brain-eating amoeba from Michael's new book 'Who Is Government?'. For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com . G...

A radical thought experiment transforms the lives of a new breed of philanthropists, as they follow the logic of altruism to extraordinary lengths. The most famous convert to the Effective Altruism movement, Sam Bankman-Fried, is either a humanitarian hero, a con artist at an astonishing scale, or most bafflingly, both. For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com . Get ad-free...

George Price is on a mission to prove that human kindness is real. He's seen the latest research suggesting any altruism is ultimately selfish and finds it deeply depressing. George decides to learn the mathematics he needs to prove that research wrong, and throws his career, and life, into the quest for complete kindness. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Steven Spielberg thought his career was finished. He was behind schedule, his actors were fighting, the crew were mutinous and worst of all, his shark was broken. It looked like Jaws was destined for failure, but the movie that came out defined the Hollywood blockbuster. In this special episode celebrating 50 years of Jaws, we take lessons from the greatest monster movie that almost wasn't made. T...

The annual Le Mans 24 Hour race brings in hundreds of thousands of spectators to watch the giants of motor racing put their endurance to the ultimate test. Every year, technology improves and the cars get a little faster. In 1955, that push for ultimate speed results in a catastrophe that changes the sport forever. For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com . Get ad-free epis...

Lise Meitner has fought for her entire life to be seen as a scientist, slowly building a career as a nuclear physicist in Berlin. When Adolf Hitler rises to power, the small gains she's made are snatched away. As a Jewish woman, Lise has a critical decision to make: is her passion for science worth her life? An earlier version of this podcast mistakenly gave the wrong date for the bombing of Hiros...

Can game theory be used to win a world cup? Can you pay the way out of political corruption? And are there winning strategies in life we don't use because we're too embarrassed? Tim teams up with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, poker connoisseurs and the hosts of podcast Risky Business to answer your questions, tackling everything from sports, to tariffs, to the evils of smartphones. For a full l...

Sixteen years have passed since Ferdinand De Lesseps' catastrophic failure in Panama and the dramatic collapse of the French Panama Canal company. Now, President Theodore Roosevelt has picked up the task. “No single great material work,” Roosevelt tells Congress, “is of such consequence to the American people.” The Americans have their work cut out. Enter chief engineer Joh...

Ferdinand De Lesseps, "the Great Frenchman", is convinced that he is the man to build the Panama Canal. No, he isn't an engineer and, no, he's never actually been to Panama before. But he managed to dig the Suez Canal, and everyone said that would be impossible too. How hard can it be? For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com . Get ad-free episodes, plus an exclusive monthl...

In 1978 the world is on the brink of declaring victory over smallpox. No cases have been seen for months, and it looks like the end for a deadly, painful disease. When a photographer in Birmingham begins to feel ill, doctors are mystified: it looks like smallpox, but how could she have caught it? As they try to contain the outbreak, questions about blame and lab safety erupt in a media frenzy, que...

In 1900, two friends in the flourishing Arts and Crafts Movement in London share a vision: to print the ultimate edition of the Bible. Together they create The Doves Press, and its unique font, Doves. But in their quest to make something beautiful, the friends spiral towards an act of incredible ugliness. For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com . Get ad-free episodes, plus...

Cautionary Tales returns with a new episode on May 2nd. Both of the world’s greatest economists, Irving Fisher and John Maynard Keynes, thought they could see into the future and make a killing on the stock market - and then both were wiped out by the Wall Street Crash. One died a pauper, the other millionaire. What does it take to bounce back from ruin? Oh... and UFOs. See omnystudio.com/li...

20 years ago, a book called Freakonomics became an instant bestseller and worldwide sensation. Tim Harford got his hands on the first copy that Steve Levitt ever signed... and promptly sold it on eBay. In this Cautionary Conversation, the pair are reunited to discuss the Freakonomics phenomenon, why Levitt left the hostile world of academia, and how simple changes could revolutionise everything fr...

When Britain entered its first Covid-19 lockdown in March 2020, many found comfort in evoking the British wartime spirit. A timely hero emerged - Captain Tom Moore, a WWII veteran who walked up and down his garden to raise money for frontline nurses. But when the fundraising switched to a new charity, did anyone think to check where was the money was going? For a full list of sources, see the show...

Fearing for his life, Harry Houdini leaves secret codes with his loved ones, promising to use them in any post-mortem messaging. In 1926, Houdini's death shocks the world, but the news that follows is even more astounding. A report of the impossible: contact has been made. For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com . Get ad-free episodes, plus an exclusive monthly bonus episo...