Casual Friday: Financial Insights

With the NCAA college basketball tournament getting underway this week, FFG & LPL Research is getting in the spirit with its own version of March Madness. Here we share our “Final Four Factors” for the stock market in 2021: Vaccines, Policy, Profits, and Rates. While we see several strong competitors in this field, we believe the likely winner of this tournament is clear, and it will push stoc...

US payrolls grew at a solid clip month over month in February, as progress in the vaccine distribution process appeared to boost growth by enabling more of the economy to reopen. Our opinion has always been that until we have achieved widespread vaccine distribution, the in-person segments of the labor market will be slow to recover losses from a year ago. This week Brian discusses how we are beco...

This week Brian is joined by a special guest, Meera Pandit from the Global Market Insights Strategy Team at JPMorgan Asset Management. Meera is responsible for  conducting research on the global economy and capital markets, and is also part of the publication team that produces the JPMorgan Guide to the Markets. Meera has been with her firm for more than a decade, is a CFA charterholder and earned...

Last Friday marked one year since the market began to price in the effects that COVID-19 would have on the world. The old market adage “stairs up, elevator down” certainly rang true over the coming weeks, as the S&P 500 recorded the fastest bear market (closing 20% below a previous all-time high) in history, accomplishing that feat in a mere 16 days. This week, Brian discusses three lessons th...

This week, Brian talks about the growing debate over whether an expanding economy, in conjunction with historic fiscal and monetary policies, may cause inflation to overheat. This begs the question, will we see a reflationary environment—where prices will merely normalize to prior levels—or outright inflation—where consumer prices begin to increase above trend? CLICK HERE for the LPL chart mention...

This week Brian discusses how the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, a market-based measure of inflation expectations, hit its highest level last Friday, February 5, since 2014. CLICK HERE for the LPL chart mentioned in the episode. Ford Financial Group on Facebook Ford Financial Group on YouTube Questions? Find us at FordFG.com Email us at info@fordfg.com Music: Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacL...

This week, Brian talks about how US payrolls grew month over month in January following a brief dip into negative territory in December. Peering under the hood, though, this report did little to dispel the notion that the labor market’s recovery has been stalling out, and likely bolsters calls for additional fiscal stimulus. CLICK HERE for the LPL chart mentioned in the episode. Ford Financial Gro...

This week Brian reviews the Fed's renewed commitment to continue its asset purchasing program and its emphasis on maximum employment over price stability. We also cover some of the incredible action from some of the most heavily shorted names, which has investors everywhere wondering "what does this all mean?" CLICK HERE for the first LPL chart mentioned in the episode. CLICK HERE f...

This week Brian discusses how earlier this year, mortgage rates followed the 10-year Treasury yield lower to register an all-time low value of 3.3%. Fueled by additional purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) by the Fed, mortgage spreads have narrowed while Treasury yields remain at depressed levels, only recently trading above 1%. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the average rate on a...

Where are my tax forms? This week brian reviews our tax form release schedule, and also covers how the rise in COVID-19 cases in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the subsequent rise in restrictions implemented by state and local governments have taken a toll particularly on small businesses, pushing the Uncertainty Index component of the survey 8 points below the 6-month average. CLICK HERE for the...

2020 was a good year for stock investors despite unprecedented challenges. After being down more than 30% at the March 2020 lows, the S&P 500 Index ended the year with a solid 18.4% total return. Last year marked the first time the index ended a year positive after being down at least 30% during that year. Gains were driven primarily by the emerging economic recovery taking hold, bolstered by...

As 2020 comes to a close, we are already looking forward to a new year—and to a world very different from the one we’re leaving behind. Areas of the economy have been damaged and may never fully recover, but other areas will adapt, reinvent, and help reinvigorate growth. This week Brian Ullmann and Steve Jolly get together to cover what may be on the investing horizon next year by looking at monet...

Equity strength at this time of the year is widely known as the Santa Claus Rally, but the term is somewhat misunderstood. Discovered in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, creator of the Stock Trader’s Almanac (carried on now by his son Jeff Hirsch), the real Santa Claus Rally is the final five trading days of the year and first two trading days of the following year, not just December. In other words, the offi...

We always hear about marriage proposals over the holidays, so for the week of Christmas we decided to give some money tips to next year's newlyweds.  According to TD Ameritrade, found that 41% of divorced Gen Xers and 29% of Boomers say they ended their marriage due to disagreements about money. To combat this, we compiled some tips to help get newlyweds off on the right foot, discussing ever...

Inflation is likely to pick up as the economy improves and may run a little hotter than we’ve seen in recent years in 2021, but is a cause for worry? This week we discuss where inflation sits right now, why it may run even hotter, and some of the forces that may keep inflation in check The LPL Chart of the Day, mentioned in this episode, can be found here: https://bit.ly/2Wefggr Ford Financial Gro...

This week we take a look at the recent November jobs report, which showed the pace of US jobs growth slowed further in November, adding fuel to what’s been borne out by recent high-frequency data: The economic recovery is increasingly cooling in the face of rising COVID-19 cases and renewed lockdowns. The LPL Chart of the Day, mentioned in this episode, can be found here: https://bit.ly/39I9F9X Fo...

In this week's episode we have the audio replay of our webinar "Social Security Planning for Couples", where we talked about how you and you spouse would likely benefit from coordinating how you apply for Social Security benefits, versus blindly applying for benefits when they're first available or at your full retirement age. If you're interested in having one of our advi...

This week, Ryan and Brian chat about ways to tackle Black Friday shopping, from coming deal sites and door busters, to taking a sound financial approach by budgeting, using lists, and considering the "price per use" idea. CNBC article mentioned in the episode: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/23/holiday-2020-so-long-doorbusters-retailers-roll-out-weeks-of-deals.html Deal sites: https://slick...

This week Brian, Nik, Steve and Rob got together to have a casual discussion about what are some of our clients' most frequently asked questions, which includes questions about changes in the tax code, and what may be in store for markets in 2021. Also, you can register for our Savvy Social Security Webinar right here: https://bit.ly/2JYMWvz Ford Financial Group on Facebook Ford Financial Gro...

This week Brian discusses how GDP expanded 33.1% on an annualized basis in the third quarter, ahead of expectations, fueled by the continued reopening of businesses and reversing much of the economic fallout from COVID-19-related lockdowns. Check out the LPL Research chart referenced in this episode HERE . Ford Financial Group on Facebook Ford Financial Group on YouTube Questions? Find us at FordF...

After taking the last week off, Brian reviews recent market performance, retail sales numbers, and discusses everyone's obsession with the election and how it fits into longer term investing goals. Ford Financial Group on Facebook Ford Financial Group on YouTube Questions? Find us at FordFG.com Email us at info@fordfg.com Music: Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creat...

This week we recap market performance and economic news for the week ending 10/2, and we address some of the concerns and frequently asked questions we're receiving as it relates to the President's recent COVID-19 positive test.  Charts mentioned in the episode:  JOB GROWTH STALLING CHART Check out our Facebook and Youtube pages, which can be found here: Ford Financial Group on Facebook...

This week we chat about the reasons why the market has slipped since peaking on September 2nd, and do a quick jobs and COVID update. Brian also mentioned our Facebook and Youtube pages, which can be found here: Ford Financial Group on Facebook Ford Financial Group on YouTube Questions? Find us at FordFG.com Email us at info@fordfg.com Music: Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under...

This week we chat about our upcoming webinar on ways you can save for college for the students in your life, chat about the California wildfires and the Creek Fire in particular, and give our regular market update. If you're interested in registering for our College Savings Planning webinar on September 30th, email us or click this link : https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_g6I1Qjn3R8...

This week we start with our regular update, where stocks have sold off again over the last 5 days as investors take more of a breather after a summer run in markets. We also tackled jobs and COVID news, and finish by talking about ways the fixed income side of your portfolio may be impacted by rising interest rates. Questions? Find us at FordFG.com Email us at info@fordfg.com Music: Cold Funk - Fu...